B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$42.50
+25.2% vs current
VVV
ValvolineCNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$39.50
+16.4% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
-8.7% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-11.4
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-11.4
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+61.3
Score
AI commentary
T+1 tone is constructive on the primary-source beat and guidance increase, but price confirmation is mixed: as of May 8, 2026, VVV traded around $35.62 versus the prior $35.87 close after opening stronger, suggesting limited immediate follow-through. Analyst target/rating revision data were not yet available, so this remains a cautious post-earnings monitoring view rather than a stronger momentum call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-08catalystQ2 beat plus higher FY2026 profit guidanceMedium impact
Valvoline reported Q2 revenue of $503.8 million, adjusted EPS of $0.41, adjusted EBITDA of $133.6 million, and raised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $540-$560 million from $525-$550 million and adjusted EPS to $1.65-$1.75 from $1.60-$1.70 [#8-K-2026-05-07]. Associated Press said adjusted EPS beat the five-analyst Zacks consensus of $0.35 and revenue beat the $490.1 million consensus.
2026-08-06eventBreeze integration and same-store sales durability into the next printMedium impact
Management said Breeze is performing well, Q2 system-wide SSS was 8.2%, and quarter-end system-wide stores reached 2,409 with 29 net additions [#8-K-2026-05-07]. The next quarter needs to confirm that acquisition contribution and core traffic/ticket trends remain durable rather than just acquisition-aided.
2027-05-08catalystStore-growth algorithm with margin leverage remains intact but needs follow-throughHigh impact
The quarter showed 25% sales growth, 28% adjusted EBITDA growth, and management kept store-addition and revenue ranges while lifting profit targets, supporting the longer-term network-growth and productivity thesis [#8-K-2026-05-07]. Even so, the market likely needs multiple quarters of execution to underwrite a sustained rerating.
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology