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Opportunity Radar

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Current material catalysts, thesis breaks, and insider-buying signals. Ranked with explicit invalidation and source provenance.

Current-valid signals/Assessments through 2026-09-06/12 contributing research runs
Matching signals
14
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Sources this page
57

Research filters

long rail

14 signals
#1longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-09-06 / event 2026-08-13 / valid through 2026-09-15

79
Score
Insider buying thesis

Two executive officers bought $3.99 million while ONON fell 13.13% versus SPY down 0.79%, leaving a substantial negative excess reaction in the supplied data.

Purchase Magnitude
16
Underreaction
15
Insider Breadth
14
Role Signal Quality
14
Invalidation: Invalidate if ONON closes below $27.99 before 2026-09-15 or later filing evidence shows the purchases were non-discretionary.
#2longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-08-26 / event 2026-08-18 / valid through 2026-09-24

77
Score
Insider buying thesis

CFO and CEO code-P purchases totaling $954,230.84, including a $619,000 purchase, were followed by only a 0.6774% gain and 0.6526 percentage points of excess return versus SPY, leaving a potentially underreacted signal during the validity window.

Purchase Magnitude
17
Underreaction
14
Role Signal Quality
14
Insider Breadth
12
Invalidation: Invalidate if NOMD closes below the $11.81 reference close during 2026-08-26 through 2026-09-24, or if filing review verifies that either purchase was plan-driven or non-economic.
#3longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-08-28 / event 2026-08-18 / valid through 2026-09-28

77
Score
Insider buying thesis

The CEO and executive chair accumulated $547,061.90 across five reported P acquisitions, while REFI gained only 0.5655% versus SPY's 1.1146%, leaving no positive excess repricing. The setup is invalidated if REFI closes below $10.39 during the fixed validity window.

Underreaction
15
Insider Breadth
15
Purchase Magnitude
14
Role Signal Quality
14
Invalidation: A REFI closing below $10.39 during 2026-08-28 through 2026-09-28 invalidates the constructive accumulation thesis.
#4longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-08-14 / event 2026-08-09 / valid through 2026-09-14

74
Score
Insider buying thesis

A CEO-led $1.018 million code-P cluster, including a $521,600 purchase, was followed by a 1.9384% MTDR decline versus a 0.95% SPY gain, leaving -2.8884 percentage points of excess return and a potentially underreacted signal.

Purchase Magnitude
17
Underreaction
14
Role Signal Quality
14
Insider Breadth
13
Invalidation: Invalidate by 2026-09-14 if MTDR's cumulative return from the $52.62 reference close exceeds SPY by approximately 10 percentage points, or if current filing details establish that the purchases were automatic or non-discretionary.
#5longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-08-26 / event 2026-08-23 / valid through 2026-09-24

74
Score
Insider buying thesis

The CEO and IM8 CFO made four current code-P acquisitions totaling $862,373.40. RankAlpha records a 6.5536% move and 6.234 percentage points of excess return since the first filing, indicating a quantified but still modest underreaction after senior-executive buying.

Purchase Magnitude
19
Insider Breadth
14
Role Signal Quality
14
Ownership Conviction
11
Invalidation: Invalidate by 2026-09-24 if PRE closes below the supplied 2026-08-24 reference close of $21.82 or if the company discloses a material financing, dilution, or governance event that breaks the setup.
#6longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-08-17 / event 2026-07-30 / valid through 2026-09-15

74
Score
Insider buying thesis

The CEO and a director purchased $787,352.12 in current code-P acquisitions, while VFC returned 3.8408% versus SPY's 3.9235%, leaving no positive excess repricing attributable to the buying. Invalidate if VFC closes below the $14.32 pre-filing reference close during the validity window or a verified financing or governance event breaks the setup.

Purchase Magnitude
17
Underreaction
15
Role Signal Quality
14
Ownership Conviction
11
Invalidation: Invalidate by 2026-09-15 if VFC closes below $14.32, the pre-filing reference close, or if verified financing, dilution, governance, or legal risk materially changes the setup.
#7longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-08-21 / event 2026-08-13 / valid through 2026-09-21

72
Score
Insider buying thesis

Three insiders bought $258,262.42 while AFCG fell 4.32% and underperformed SPY by 3.02 percentage points after the first filing. The signal is contrarian and informative but high risk because buying was only about one day of average dollar volume and the company has a leveraged, concentrated BDC portfolio.

Insider Breadth
16
Purchase Magnitude
15
Underreaction
14
Role Signal Quality
13
Invalidation: Invalidate if AFCG closes below $3.00 during 2026-08-21 through 2026-09-21 or if a filing during the window verifies material dilution or credit impairment that breaks the setup.
#8longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-09-03 / event 2026-08-25 / valid through 2026-10-02

72
Score
Insider buying thesis

A $1.46 million cluster led by a $1.27 million Chairman and CEO purchase, with a meaningful director purchase, was followed by a quantified 3.84 percentage-point negative excess return versus SPY. The signal appears underreacted to, but conviction is moderated by the immaterial third purchase, spouse-held rows, currency conversion, and disclosed accounting and cash-flow risks.

Purchase Magnitude
22
Role Signal Quality
14
Ownership Conviction
11
Insider Breadth
10
Invalidation: Invalidate by 2026-10-02 if AMRZ closes below $40.00, or if a subsequent filing identifies the purchases as automatic or plan-driven or discloses a material financing, legal, or governance event.
#9longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-09-03 / event 2026-08-26 / valid through 2026-10-02

72
Score
Insider buying thesis

A Chairman and CEO-led $1.27 million code-P acquisition cluster was followed by a 3.8057% AMRZ decline and 3.2611 percentage points of negative excess return, indicating the buying remains underreacted to within the validity window.

Purchase Magnitude
19
Underreaction
15
Role Signal Quality
14
Risk Hygiene
8
Invalidation: Invalidate if AMRZ closes below $40.00 before 2026-10-02 or a subsequent filing establishes that the purchases were non-discretionary or mechanically administered.
#10longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-08-13 / event 2026-08-09 / valid through 2026-09-11

72
Score
Insider buying thesis

Two senior officers reported $456,791 of code-P acquisitions, including the President and CEO increasing direct holdings from 15,000 to 25,000 shares. HOG then fell 2.8069% and lagged SPY by 3.0574 percentage points, indicating limited immediate recognition of the buying. Invalidate if HOG closes below $25.00 or management reverses FY2026 guidance by 2026-09-11.

Underreaction
15
Role Signal Quality
14
Purchase Magnitude
13
Ownership Conviction
12
Invalidation: A close below $25.00 or a reversal of FY2026 guidance by 2026-09-11 invalidates the underreaction setup.
#11longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-08-28 / event 2026-08-17 / valid through 2026-09-28

72
Score
Insider buying thesis

The CEO and executive chair made verified code-P purchases totaling $562,706.90, while REFI returned 0.5655% versus SPY's 1.1146%, producing -0.5491 percentage points of excess return through 2026-08-27. The setup depends on the purchases being discretionary and the muted reaction persisting.

Role Signal Quality
14
Insider Breadth
13
Purchase Magnitude
13
Underreaction
12
Invalidation: Invalidate during the fixed window if REFI closes below the $10.61 reference close for two consecutive sessions, or if filing evidence identifies the purchases as automatic, non-economic, or otherwise non-discretionary.
#12longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-09-06 / event 2026-08-31 / valid through 2026-10-01

72
Score
Insider buying thesis

The chairman and CEO bought $1.42 million, about half a day of supplied dollar volume, while NPB delivered only 1.65 points of excess return versus SPY.

Purchase Magnitude
22
Role Signal Quality
15
Underreaction
12
Ownership Conviction
10
Invalidation: Invalidate if NPB closes below $17.28 before 2026-10-01 or subsequent filings reverse the ownership increase.
#13longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-08-21 / event 2026-08-16 / valid through 2026-09-21

70
Score
Insider buying thesis

The CEO and COO made direct code-P purchases totaling $329,560 while KEEL underperformed SPY by 9.31 percentage points after the first public filing, supporting a potentially underreacted signal if execution remains funded.

Underreaction
15
Role Signal Quality
14
Insider Breadth
12
Ownership Conviction
12
Invalidation: Invalidate if KEEL closes below $3.25, the latest reported insider purchase price, or if the company discloses a funding shortfall, material dilution, or project delay before 2026-09-21.
#14longInsider buyingInsider activityCandidate

SEC code-P insider purchase cluster

Assessed 2026-09-06 / event 2026-08-25 / valid through 2026-09-28

70
Score
Insider buying thesis

The CEO bought $9.95 million, roughly 12.7% of supplied average daily dollar volume, while KLAR's 2.97-point excess return indicates only modest repricing.

Purchase Magnitude
22
Role Signal Quality
15
Underreaction
12
Ownership Conviction
9
Invalidation: Invalidate if KLAR closes below $14.41 before 2026-09-28 or later filings show the purchase was mechanically administered.

short rail

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