VLO

Valero EnergyC

NYSE / Energy

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$278.00

+7.6% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$238.00

-7.8% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$198.00

-23.3% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-03

AI commentary

Headline tone improved sharply after the April 30, 2026 earnings release because the company-reported quarter was much stronger year over year and trusted coverage described a beat versus expectations. Still, by the May 1, 2026 anchor close of $246.87, the stock was already trading well above the packet median target, and checked T+3 sources did not provide a clean post-print analyst-revision wave. That keeps sentiment positive but not high-conviction.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-03

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-15catalystQ1 earnings reset confirms margin rebound but follow-through still needs validationMedium impact

Valero reported Q1 2026 net income attributable to stockholders of $1.3 billion, or $4.22 per share, with refining operating income of $1.8 billion, renewable diesel operating income of $139 million, ethanol operating income of $90 million, and $938 million of stockholder cash returns [#8-K-2026-04-30]. Trusted follow-up coverage framed the print as above consensus, but checked sources did not provide a complete T+3 analyst revision set, so this remains a monitoring catalyst rather than a clean re-rating call.

2026-09-30eventSt. Charles FCC optimization project is a dated Q3 operational milestoneMedium impact

Management said the $230 million St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project is expected to be completed and begin operations in the third quarter of 2026, a company-specific operating milestone that could support higher-value product yield if execution stays on track [#8-K-2026-04-30].

2026-12-31catalystStrong product margins and clean-fuel credits support cash generation, but outage and asset-transition friction cap convictionHigh impact

The 10-Q says Q1 refining margin rose by $1.4 billion year over year, helped mainly by stronger distillate margins and crude differentials, while renewable diesel margin improved on better product pricing and clean-fuel credits and ethanol benefited from lower corn costs plus new clean-fuel credits [#10-Q-2026-04-30]. Offsetting that, Q2 Gulf Coast throughput is guided to 1.690-1.740 million barrels per day because Port Arthur is running at reduced capacity after the March 23 fire [#10-Q-2026-04-30].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology