B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
+50.8% vs current
SAM
Boston BeerCNYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
+38.5% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
+13.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-03
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.3
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+84.8
Score
AI commentary
Post-earnings tone is mixed to cautious. Primary company filings support a weaker-volume, lower-guidance narrative, while checked third-party earnings coverage said revenue was roughly in line with consensus but adjusted EPS missed and the stock initially traded down after the print. SAM’s 2026-05-01 anchor close at $214.3 suggests the negative reaction persisted into the next session. No clearly verified T+3 analyst revision cluster was found in checked sources, so this remains a monitoring setup rather than a strong thesis change.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-03
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-15eventQ1 earnings reset keeps the stock in digestion modeMedium impact
The April 30, 2026 earnings release showed depletions down 4%, shipments down 6.9%, net revenue down 4.4% to $433.9 million, and full-year depletions/shipment guidance tightened to down low-single digits to mid-single digits; GAAP EPS guidance now includes the litigation charge while non-GAAP EPS is $8.50 to $10.50 [#8-K-2026-04-30].
2026-08-01catalystSummer sell-through and inventory normalization are the next real demand checkHigh impact
Management said distributor inventory was about four and a half weeks on hand versus five weeks a year ago, first-half shipments should trend toward the lower end of full-year volume guidance, and innovation launches plus advertising are weighted to the second and third quarters, making summer sell-through the next meaningful operating proof point [#8-K-2026-04-30].
2026-11-05catalystMargin bridge could improve later in 2026 if savings offset tariffs and commodity pressureHigh impact
Despite weaker volumes, Q1 gross margin improved 100 basis points to 49.3%, and management still guides to 48% to 50% gross margin for 2026 with more meaningful year-over-year improvement expected in Q4 as shortfall fees ease and savings initiatives offset tariff and commodity headwinds [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology