B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SAM
Boston BeerANYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$198.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-23
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+53.3
Score
AI commentary
The print is mixed: adjusted EPS beat a reported consensus estimate, revenue missed, the earnings floor improved, and volume guidance weakened. Consensus comparison Company earnings release. A live October 23 quote at 14:11 UTC was $194.91, about 0.4% below the $195.72 prior close; this is an intraday observation, not a settled post-earnings reaction. Post-print analyst revisions were not verified. Social, options, short-interest and employee-sentiment measures were not supplied; the zero entries above denote unavailable data, not neutral measured readings.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-23
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-12-31eventHigher earnings floor, weaker volume outlookMedium impact
Following Q3 results, Boston Beer raised the low end of 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $9.00 from $8.50 and gross-margin guidance to 49% from 48.5%, but narrowed its depletions and shipments outlook to down mid-single digits. The earnings improvement is therefore not yet a demand recovery. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22] Company earnings release.
2026-12-31catalystCore-brand depletion pressureHigh impact
Q3 depletions fell 5% and shipments fell 4.9%. Declines in Twisted Tea, Truly and Samuel Adams were only partly offset by Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard; management estimated depletions remained down about 5% through October 17. Continued weakness would challenge the revised volume outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22] Company earnings release.
2027-06-30catalystMix and brewery-efficiency margin bridgeHigh impact
Q3 gross margin rose 90 basis points to 51.7%, aided by favorable mix, pricing, procurement savings and brewery efficiencies despite commodity and tariff costs. Sustaining those gains while Sun Cruiser grows could support earnings, but the benefit must be tested against declining volumes and elevated freight costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22] Company earnings release.
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology