B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SAM
Boston BeerANYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $4.37 exceeded the $4.22 consensus cited by Investing.com, while the raised 2026 EPS floor, 90-basis-point gross-margin gain, $308.1 million of cash and no debt support resilience despite weak volumes. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22] Consensus comparison.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
What can break
Higher freight, commodity and tariff costs could erode the mix, pricing and efficiency benefits behind Q3 margin expansion. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
Momentum
79
Value
64
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $198.00 · Bull $235.00 · Bear $155.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $198.85
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d +18.3
Value64 · Δ7d -1.5
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +5.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Higher freight, commodity and tariff costs could erode the mix, pricing and efficiency benefits behind Q3 margin expansion. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
- • The supplier-dispute judgment and accrued interest remain unresolved; management cannot estimate the timing or ultimate payment. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
- • Revenue of $520.1 million missed Investing.com's $523.01 million consensus; depletions fell 5%, and management lowered the volume outlook.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Higher earnings floor, weaker volume outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
79
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.3
Δ21d
+42.8
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-3.0
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.1
Δ21d
-10.2
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 79.1 / Value 63.8 / Sentiment 53.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$198.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$2.05B
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
10.15M
P/E (TTM)
23.2
P/S (TTM)
1.06
P/FCF (TTM)
9.95
Rev YoY
-3.3%
EPS YoY
-8.9%
Gross Margin
+48.9%
Op Margin
+5.4%
Net Debt
-$184.39M
Current Ratio
1.05
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data