B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$370.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
WSO
WatscoCNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$315.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-09-30
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+59.9
Score
AI commentary
The primary-source picture is mixed: Q2 demand stabilized and Watsco announced a sizable acquisition, but margins contracted and Granite has not been confirmed closed. The supplied $300.80 anchor is not a measured post-announcement reaction. Analyst revisions, options, short interest and social sentiment are unavailable; no positive signal is inferred from their absence. Even with Ferguson as a partial operating reference, direct peer valuation remains limited.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-30
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-12-31eventGranite Group acquisition awaits closingMedium impact
Watsco agreed to acquire the Northeast plumbing and HVAC distributor for approximately $505 million, subject to adjustments and closing conditions. Granite has approximately $500 million in annual sales. The transaction has not been confirmed closed; regulatory approval, funding and integration remain the key tests. [#8-K-2026-09-17] [#IR-2026-09-14]
2026-12-31eventGross-margin recovery testMedium impact
Q2 gross margin fell to 27.5% from 29.3%, while operating income declined 12%. Watsco attributed roughly 130 basis points of the year-earlier margin benefit to OEM pricing and A2L-transition effects. Subsequent results must show whether steadier demand can offset that comparison; the date is an analytical review horizon, not an announced reporting date. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
2027-06-30catalystJackson Supply integration and customer growthMedium impact
The completed Jackson Supply acquisition added approximately $230 million of annualized sales across 25 Sunbelt locations. Q2 domestic residential HVAC equipment sales rose 5%, including 2% unit growth, but evidence of sustained cross-selling or incremental earnings from digital initiatives is not yet available. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-09-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology