WSO

WatscoC

NYSE / Capital Goods

At close

2026-08-05

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$410.00

+23.1% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$370.00

+11.1% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$285.00

-14.4% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-08-05

AI commentary

Official earnings evidence is mixed: operating conditions and residential HVAC demand improved, but the quarter missed expectations and margins contracted. Social coverage, analyst revisions, options data, short interest, employee sentiment and post-print price reaction were not supplied. The peer set is also loose, so this remains a cautious monitoring view rather than a high-conviction relative-value thesis.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-05

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Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-07-29eventQ2 earnings show stabilization but miss expectationsMedium impact

Q2 revenue rose 2% to $2.1 billion and EPS was $4.00, but both missed reported analyst expectations; operating income fell 12% and gross margin declined to 27.5%. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q2]

2026-09-30catalystGross-margin normalization remains a near-term headwindMedium impact

Management attributed the year-over-year margin comparison to unusually favorable 2025 OEM pricing actions and said 2026 pricing has normalized; the company continues to target a long-term 30% gross-margin goal. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q2]

2026-12-31catalystJackson Supply integration expands Sunbelt densityHigh impact

Watsco completed the Jackson Supply acquisition, adding approximately $230 million of annualized sales across 25 Sunbelt locations. Integration and cross-selling execution are the key forward variables. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-08-05 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology