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WSO

WatscoC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Residential equipment unit growth, Jackson integration and a completed Granite transaction could support sales growth while Watsco retains acquisition capacity. The Q2 release reported $464 million of cash and cash investments and no debt before the proposed Granite purchase.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.2.
What can break
Granite closing depends on customary conditions and regulatory review; acquisition economics, integration costs and the final stock issuance are uncertain. [#8-K-2026-09-17]
Momentum
40
Value
52
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $315.00 · Bull $370.00 · Bear $245.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-03 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-03 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-03

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-03. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $337.22
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d +8.5
Value52 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -2.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Granite closing depends on customary conditions and regulatory review; acquisition economics, integration costs and the final stock issuance are uncertain. [#8-K-2026-09-17]
  • • Gross margin may remain below the prior-year level as unusually favorable 2025 OEM pricing comparisons unwind. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • Q2 gross-margin and operating-income declines show that demand stabilization has not yet restored profitability.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Granite Group acquisition awaits closing

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
40
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.5
Δ21d
+12.7
Value
52
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
60
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-15.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 40.0 / Value 51.7 / Sentiment 59.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$370.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$315.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-03
Market Cap
$12.98B
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
41.64M
P/E (TTM)
27.5
P/S (TTM)
1.92
P/FCF (TTM)
252.67
Rev YoY
+2.1%
EPS YoY
-11.7%
Gross Margin
+26.9%
Op Margin
+9.0%
Net Debt
-$254.5M
Current Ratio
3.20
As of 2026-11-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data