B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$42.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VVV
ValvolineBNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Post-earnings evidence improved: Q2 beat on revenue and adjusted EPS, same-store sales were strong, and FY2026 adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance moved higher [#8-K-2026-05-07]. With the anchor price at $35.87 versus a median target of $41.6, the setup supports a modest upside case if execution stays clean.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.
What can break
First-half continuing-operations earnings remained only $13.1 million despite the strong quarter, reflecting the drag from higher interest expense and other items in the six-month bridge from the earnings release.
Momentum
56
Value
54
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $39.50 · Bull $42.50 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $42.63
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d +18.9
Value54 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -0.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • First-half continuing-operations earnings remained only $13.1 million despite the strong quarter, reflecting the drag from higher interest expense and other items in the six-month bridge from the earnings release.
- • The FY2026 guide raise depends on sustaining Breeze integration, same-store sales momentum, and SG&A leverage; any slowdown in traffic, ticket mix, or execution could pressure the upgraded profit outlook [#8-K-2026-05-07].
- • This is still a monitoring setup rather than a high-conviction rerating call.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-08
Q2 beat plus higher FY2026 profit guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+18.9
Δ21d
+44.0
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-14.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 56.2 / Value 54.5 / Sentiment 65.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$39.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.04B
Beta
1.20
Shares Out
127.59M
P/E (TTM)
17.9
P/S (TTM)
2.22
P/FCF (TTM)
99.85
Rev YoY
+24.1%
EPS YoY
+14.0%
Gross Margin
+38.3%
Op Margin
+17.7%
Net Debt
$1.62B
Current Ratio
0.70
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data