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VLO

Valero EnergyC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The earnings beat was broad rather than isolated: refining, renewable diesel, and ethanol all improved materially year over year, while cash generation and shareholder returns remained strong. The St.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
11 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
No dependable post-print analyst revisions or market-reaction attribution were verified, limiting confidence in the durability of the earnings-driven thesis.
Momentum
91
Value
60
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
11 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $316.00 · Bull $355.00 · Bear $250.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $341.00
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d +2.9
Value60 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -1.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 11 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • No dependable post-print analyst revisions or market-reaction attribution were verified, limiting confidence in the durability of the earnings-driven thesis.
  • • Recent Form 4 activity includes open-market sales by an officer and dispositions by directors; this is a sentiment overhang but not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-30]
  • • The stock may have already capitalized much of the earnings upside.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-30

Q2 2026 earnings materially exceeded stored consensus

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
+0.3
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+10.0
Sentiment
51
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-7.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 91.2 / Value 60.0 / Sentiment 50.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$355.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$316.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$250.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$99.97B
Beta
0.76
Shares Out
287.93M
P/E (TTM)
37.6
P/S (TTM)
0.45
P/FCF (TTM)
21.51
Rev YoY
+49.0%
EPS YoY
+453.0%
Gross Margin
+8.4%
Op Margin
+7.6%
Net Debt
$6.99B
Current Ratio
1.64
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data