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VLO

Valero EnergyB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The $23.90 adjusted-EPS result exceeded the packet's $21.23 pre-release consensus; near-record refinery utilization, $8.8 billion of refining operating income, and the completed St. Charles upgrade support an operationally strong print.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
15 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
A July 30 filing says Valero expected to fulfill Northern California customer obligations through imports or alternative supply arrangements. The extracted customer relationship is uncertain, customers and exposure are undisclosed, and the statement is not evidence of a Q3 shortfall. [#REL-0a107135-28f5-403b-8674-04b08980ee7d] Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026050937/vlo-20260630.htm
Momentum
95
Value
56
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
15 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $410.00 · Bull $480.00 · Bear $350.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $433.94
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d +0.8
Value56 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +31.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 15 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A July 30 filing says Valero expected to fulfill Northern California customer obligations through imports or alternative supply arrangements. The extracted customer relationship is uncertain, customers and exposure are undisclosed, and the statement is not evidence of a Q3 shortfall. [#REL-0a107135-28f5-403b-8674-04b08980ee7d] Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026050937/vlo-20260630.htm
  • • No verified forward-estimate revisions or explicit margin guidance were available for this early T+1 assessment.
  • • The first-day decline despite a large EPS beat is consistent with investor concern about peak refining margins, but the price move alone does not establish causation.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-22

Q3 beat meets a negative first-day reaction

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
95
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+2.0
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+31.8
Δ21d
+19.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 95.5 / Value 56.5 / Sentiment 57.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$480.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$410.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$350.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$120.72B
Beta
0.76
Shares Out
287.93M
P/E (TTM)
37.6
P/S (TTM)
0.45
P/FCF (TTM)
21.51
Rev YoY
+49.0%
EPS YoY
+453.0%
Gross Margin
+8.4%
Op Margin
+7.6%
Net Debt
$6.99B
Current Ratio
1.64
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data