B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$680.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ULTA
Ulta BeautyCNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print exceeded stored consensus context on EPS and revenue, with stronger comparable sales, digital growth, category momentum, and a raised FY26 outlook. Bounded post-print coverage also reported target increases from DA Davidson and Goldman Sachs, although the broader revision set remains incomplete.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
What can break
Analyst revision breadth, target dispersion, and social-sentiment data remain incomplete.
Momentum
88
Value
53
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $625.00 · Bull $680.00 · Bear $500.00Analysis 2026-09-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $643.96
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +1.7
Value53 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -3.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst revision breadth, target dispersion, and social-sentiment data remain incomplete.
- • Comparable-sales growth may normalize further if average-ticket growth weakens or transactions remain flat.
- • The negative post-print reaction suggests expectations were high.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-27
Q2 beat and FY26 guidance raise
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
88
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
+14.3
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-2.1
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-22.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 87.5 / Value 52.9 / Sentiment 53.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$625.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$26.8B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
42.76M
P/E (TTM)
24.2
P/S (TTM)
2.34
P/FCF (TTM)
26.88
Rev YoY
+11.1%
EPS YoY
+15.5%
Gross Margin
+39.3%
Op Margin
+12.6%
Net Debt
$1.69B
Current Ratio
1.31
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data