B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$680.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ULTA
Ulta BeautyBNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$625.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-09-01
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-21.1
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-21.1
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+77.3
Score
AI commentary
The company source confirms a strong Q2 beat and raised outlook, while stored market coverage confirms a negative initial price reaction. Bounded analyst coverage showed some target increases, but no complete revision or consensus dataset is available. The evidence supports a cautious bullish monitoring view rather than a high-conviction re-rating thesis.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-01
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-27eventQ2 beat and FY26 guidance raiseMedium impact
Ulta reported Q2 net sales growth of 8.9%, comparable sales growth of 3.8%, operating-income growth of 10.1%, and diluted EPS growth of 13.3% to $6.55. FY26 sales, comparable-sales, operating-income, and EPS guidance were raised; the fiscal-year buyback target increased to $1.8 billion. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
2026-09-30catalystSell-the-news and margin-expectation riskHigh impact
Stored post-print coverage reported an initial share-price decline of roughly 4% to 7% despite the beat and guidance raise. Comparable-sales growth moderated versus the prior-year quarter, transactions were roughly flat, and gross margin fell 10 basis points, primarily from Space NK mix. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-28]
2026-12-03catalystOmnichannel, category, and loyalty executionHigh impact
Stored post-earnings context reported high-teens e-commerce growth, strong fragrance and K-Beauty performance, mid-single-digit services growth, approximately 47 million active loyalty members, and controlled inventory. The next scheduled earnings checkpoint is December 3, 2026. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-28]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-09-01 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology