B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$680.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ULTA
Ulta BeautyBNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print exceeded stored consensus context on EPS and revenue, with stronger comparable sales, digital growth, category momentum, and a raised FY26 outlook. Bounded post-print coverage also reported target increases from DA Davidson and Goldman Sachs, although the broader revision set remains incomplete.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.3.
What can break
Analyst revision breadth, target dispersion, and social-sentiment data remain incomplete.
Momentum
77
Value
58
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $625.00 · Bull $680.00 · Bear $500.00Analysis 2026-09-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $635.04
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d +22.4
Value58 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +5.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst revision breadth, target dispersion, and social-sentiment data remain incomplete.
- • Comparable-sales growth may normalize further if average-ticket growth weakens or transactions remain flat.
- • The negative post-print reaction suggests expectations were high.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-27
Q2 beat and FY26 guidance raise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+22.4
Δ21d
+19.6
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
+3.2
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 77.2 / Value 58.0 / Sentiment 62.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$625.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$21.21B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
42.99M
P/E (TTM)
24.2
P/S (TTM)
2.34
P/FCF (TTM)
26.88
Rev YoY
+11.1%
EPS YoY
+15.5%
Gross Margin
+39.3%
Op Margin
+12.6%
Net Debt
$1.69B
Current Ratio
1.31
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data