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Frontier GroupA
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2026-06-02
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2026-05-23
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Earnings documents stored for ULCC.

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Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-23

Citi Lifts PT on Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Following Fiscal Q1 Results

Insider Monkey

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) is one of the best airline stocks to buy according to Reddit. Citi lifted the price target on Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) to $5 from $4.90 on May 14, maintaining a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company’s model after the release of its fiscal Q1 report on May 5. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) reported that adjusted revenue was nearly $1.1 billion, marking an all-time company record and up 17% on one percent lower capacity compared to the corresponding 2025 quarter. Furthermore, adjusted RASM, stage-length adjusted to 1,000 miles, came up to 10.29 cents, 17% higher compared to the corresponding 2025 quarter and at the higher end of the guidance range. Management reported that the company generated 106 available seat miles per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, a fuel efficiency advantage of over 40% compared to the other major U.S. carriers. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) also executed the previously announced agreements with Airbus to defer the delivery of 69 future A320 family aircraft and with AerCap to early terminate the leases associated with 24 A320neo aircraft. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) is a holding company that operates through its subsidiary, Frontier Airlines, Inc., an ultra-low-cost carrier company. It offers flights throughout the United States and to select near international destinations in the Americas. While we acknowledge the potential of ULCC as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 15 Stocks That Will Make You Rich in 10 Years AND 12 Best Stocks That Will Always Grow. Disclosure: None. Follow Insider Monkey on Google News.

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-06

Frontier Group Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat

Frontier says the Spirit shutdown "meaningfully alters the supply landscape" and is adding service on former Spirit routes, has built roughly two points of Q2 guidance tied to the event, and expects a 3%–5% run-rate RASM uplift; management guides Q2 RASM >20% YoY (stage-adjusted RASM in the high teens) on ~6%–8% capacity growth. The airline reported record adjusted revenue of nearly $1.1 billion in Q1 with stage-length adjusted RASM up 17% YoY and load factor around 78%, while posting an adjusted net loss of $68 million (adj. EPS -$0.30) that beat guidance. Frontier is pursuing fleet "rightsizing"—69 Airbus deferrals and 24 lease terminations—targeting $200 million of annual run-rate cost savings by 2027, cut 2026 capex by $30 million, and finished the quarter with nearly $1 billion of liquidity. Interested in Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.? Here are five stocks we like better. Is the Revenge Travel Boom Starting to Fizzle Out? Frontier Group (NASDAQ:ULCC) used its first-quarter 2026 earnings call to outline record adjusted revenue, progress on a fleet “rightsizing” plan, and the company’s expectations for stronger unit revenue in the second quarter, while also addressing the near-term market disruption caused by Spirit’s shutdown. President and CEO Jimmy Dempsey opened the call by addressing Spirit’s cessation of operations, calling it a meaningful event in an industry dominated by four large carriers. Dempsey said Frontier offered discounted fares over the weekend to help impacted customers on more than 100 Spirit routes and extended travel benefits to help Spirit team members return home, while encouraging them to apply for open roles at Frontier. → Roblox Stock Slides to New Low as Safety Changes Weigh on Outlook “Spirit’s exit meaningfully alters the supply landscape,” Dempsey said, adding that Frontier believes its network, low-cost structure, and “disciplined approach to capacity deployment” position it to provide low fares in affected markets. Dempsey said Frontier will expand service this summer with “nine additional routes plus 15 daily departures across 18 former Spirit routes,” including Orlando, Las Vegas, Dallas/Fort Worth, Fort Lauderdale, and Detroit. → The Real SpaceX Play: 5 Chip Stocks Powering the IPO Before It Launches Frontier reported adjusted revenue of nearly $1.1 billion, which management described as a company record. The company sa...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-05

Compared to Estimates, Frontier Group (ULCC) Q1 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics

Zacks

Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) reported $992 million in revenue for the quarter ended March 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.8%. EPS of -$0.30 for the same period compares to -$0.19 a year ago. The reported revenue represents a surprise of -5.02% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.04 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.37, the EPS surprise was +18.92%. While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health. Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance. Here is how Frontier Group performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: Load Factor: 78.4% compared to the 78.7% average estimate based on four analysts. Revenue passenger miles (RPMs): 7.69 billion versus 7.79 billion estimated by three analysts on average. Fuel cost per gallon: $2.88 versus $2.99 estimated by three analysts on average. Total revenue per available seat mile (RASM): 10.11 cents versus the three-analyst average estimate of 10.66 cents. Available seat miles (ASMs): 9.81 billion versus the three-analyst average estimate of 9.82 billion. Adjusted CASM (excluding fuel): 8.85 cents versus 8.75 cents estimated by three analysts on average. Adjusted CASM: 11.58 cents versus the three-analyst average estimate of 11.54 cents. Average stage length: 899.00 Miles compared to the 895.94 Miles average estimate based on two analysts. Fuel gallons consumed: 92.96 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of 91.66 million. Adjusted CASM + net interest: 11.56 cents versus the two-analyst average estimate of 11.54 cents. Operating revenues- Passenger: $952 million compared to the $1.02 billion average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of +7.7% year over year. Operating revenues- Other: $40 million versus $34.42 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +42.9% change. View all Key Company Metrics for Frontier Group here>>> Shares of Fron...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-05

Frontier Airlines Q1 2026 earnings: record revenue, wider loss

Quartz

Frontier Airlines posted an all-time revenue record in the first quarter of 2026 but reported a net loss of $272 million, as surging fuel costs and one-time charges weighed on results, the company said Monday. Adjusted revenue — which strips out a $73 million charge related to a court ruling on Transportation Security Administration fees — came in at almost $1.1 billion, up 17% from the same period a year earlier, Frontier Group Holdings said. On a reported basis, total operating revenue was $992 million, up from $912 million a year ago. The adjusted net loss was $68 million, or $0.30 per share. The reported net loss of $272 million included the TSA fee charge and a $139 million non-recurring charge tied to the early termination of leases on 24 Airbus A320neo aircraft. Fuel expense totaled $268 million in the quarter, with the airline paying an average of $2.88 per gallon — up 13% from $2.55 a gallon in the first quarter of 2025. Total adjusted operating expenses were about $1.1 billion, compared with $958 million a year earlier. "Our ability to deliver strong top-line results and increase our liquidity despite a rapidly rising fuel cost environment validates our strategy and the resilience of our operating model," CEO Jimmy Dempsey said in a statement. The revenue improvement was driven by strong travel demand, moderating competitive capacity, and revenue management initiatives, the company said. Load factor rose about four percentage points to 78.4%. Frontier carried 8.3 million passengers in the quarter, up 6% from a year earlier. Frontier ended the quarter with $974 million in total liquidity, $100 million higher than at year-end 2025. The outlook for the second quarter is more challenging. Frontier expects an adjusted loss of $0.45 to $0.60 per share in the period, with average fuel costs projected at $4.25 per gallon — nearly 48% above what it paid in the first quarter. Wall Street had penciled in a narrower second-quarter loss of 43 cents per share, meaning Frontier's own guidance came in worse than what analysts were projecting, per data tracked by LSEG and reported by Reuters. Frontier projected second-quarter liquidity in the range of $900 million to $950 million, supported by fleet-related activity and an expected extension of its co-brand credit card agreement. The airline said it generates 106 available seat miles per gallon, which it described...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-05

Frontier Group: Q1 Earnings Snapshot

Associated Press

DENVER (AP) — DENVER (AP) — Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) on Tuesday reported a loss of $272 million in its first quarter. The Denver-based company said it had a loss of $1.18 per share. Losses, adjusted for non-recurring costs, were 30 cents per share. The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 37 cents per share. The discount airline posted revenue of $992 million in the period, which fell short of Street forecasts. Five analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $1.04 billion. For the current quarter ending in June, Frontier Group expects its results to range from a loss of 60 cents per share to a loss of 45 cents per share. _____ This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research. Access a Zacks stock report on ULCC at https://www.zacks.com/ap/ULCC

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-05

Frontier Airlines Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results

PR Newswire

DENVER, May 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: ULCC), parent company of Frontier Airlines, Inc., today reported financial results for the first quarter of 2026 and issued guidance for the second quarter 2026 and select guidance for full-year 2026. First Quarter 2026 Select Financial Highlights The following is a summary of first quarter and select financial results, including both GAAP and adjusted (non-GAAP) metrics. Refer to "Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial Information" in the appendix of this release. Highlights (financial metrics are non-GAAP): Adjusted revenue was nearly $1.1 billion, an all-time Company record, up 17 percent on one percent lower capacity compared to the corresponding 2025 quarter Adjusted RASM, stage-length adjusted to 1,000 miles, was 10.29 cents, 17 percent higher compared to the corresponding 2025 quarter and at the higher end of the guidance range Adjusted net loss was $68 million, or $0.30 per share, beating guidance ($0.32 to $0.44 loss per share) Total liquidity was $974 million at the end of the first quarter, $100 million higher than year-end 2025 Generated 106 available seat miles ("ASM") per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, a fuel efficiency advantage of over 40 percent compared to the other major U.S. carriers1 Executed the previously announced agreements with Airbus to defer the delivery of 69 future A320 family aircraft and with AerCap to early terminate the leases associated with 24 A320neo aircraft Received the 2025 Diamond Award of Excellence, the Federal Aviation Administration's most distinguished honor in recognition of Aircraft Maintenance Technicians and employers for their commitment to maintenance training and safety, for the second consecutive year Recognized as North America's lowest-emission carrier in Cirium's 2025 EmeraldSky Review, placing Frontier in the Gold status tier reserved for the top five carriers globally "Our ability to deliver strong top-line results and increase our liquidity despite a rapidly rising fuel cost environment validates our strategy and the resilience of our operating model," said Jimmy Dempsey, President and Chief Executive Officer. "We remain focused on our four key strategic priorities centered around rightsizing the fleet, strengthening our cost discipline, improving operational reliability and driving customer loyalty, with significant pro...

TranscriptFY2026 Q12026-05-05

FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript

Earnings source - 119 paragraphs
Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Frontier Group Holdings' Q1 2026 earnings call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. I will now hand the conference over to David Erdman, Senior Director, Investor Relations. David, please go ahead.

David Erdman

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining me today in speaking order are Jimmy Dempsey, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bobby Schroeder, Chief Commercial Officer, and Mark Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer. Each will deliver brief prepared remarks. Then we'll open the call for questions. Before we begin, I'll remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties. We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures throughout the call. Reconciliations to these non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the earnings release issued today and also posted on our investor relations website. We'll also be referencing stage-length adjusted unit metrics, which are based on 1,000 miles. I'll give the call over to Jimmy to begin his prepared remarks. Jimmy.

Jimmy Dempsey

Thanks, David. Before I review the quarter, I'd like to briefly address Spirit's shutdown. Spirit played a meaningful role in providing affordable travel to a wide range of consumers in an industry dominated by four major airlines. While Frontier remains focused on ensuring consumers have access to affordable travel, our thoughts are with our friends and colleagues during this difficult time. Over the weekend, we provided discounted fares to assist affected customers on over 100 Spirit routes. We extended travel benefits to assist Spirit team members to return home and are encouraging them to apply for open positions in Frontier. Spirit's exit meaningfully alters the supply landscape. Given our network, low-cost structure, and disciplined approach to capacity deployment, Frontier is best positioned to provide low fares and the best value in those markets in a manner consistent with our strategic priorities around network shape and long-term value creation.

Jimmy Dempsey

We will expand service this summer with 9 additional routes plus 15 daily departures across 18 former Spirit routes, including Orlando, Las Vegas, Dallas, Fort Worth, Fort Lauderdale, and Detroit. This gives customers more options to rebook their travel plans with confidence while keeping fares low. Turning to the quarterly recap, we delivered adjusted revenue of nearly $1.1 billion, a company record, with stage-adjusted RASM up 17% year-over-year, reflecting sustained progress across our commercial initiatives and strong demand. This performance drove an EPS guidance beat despite sharply higher fuel prices. We remain centered on the 4 strategic priorities previously outlined to strengthen the business and return the airline to sustained profitability, including rightsizing the fleet, strengthening cost discipline, improving operational reliability, and building customer loyalty. I'll briefly update you on the progress of each. Firstly, we have made excellent progress on fleet rightsizing.

Jimmy Dempsey

We executed the previously announced 69 aircraft deferrals with Airbus and 24 lease terminations with AerCap. We expect all 24 aircraft to leave our fleet by early June. Secondly, on cost discipline, we have high confidence and remain on track to deliver $200 million of targeted annual run cost savings by 2027, including rent reductions, network optimization, and productivity benefits. Third, on operational reliability, we're focused on completion factor and on-time performance. We launched a system-wide maintenance strategy to improve maintenance planning and reliability, reduced unscheduled aircraft out-of-service events, which enables improved aircraft return to service performance at the beginning of the day. We're also enhancing our airport operations, simplifying our ticket counters, and improving turn times. Although this is a multi-year project, we are seeing positive early results. For the April year-to-date period, we ranked fourth among major domestic carriers in completion factor.

Jimmy Dempsey

Finally, our loyalty programs delivered over 30% growth in the 1st quarter, our 4th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. This is the result of continued momentum from investments in our co-brand credit card and membership programs. As previously announced, we plan to enhance the onboard experience with the introduction of first class seating and Wi-Fi service later this year and into next year. Turning to the current environment, in response to the fuel spike, we have taken decisive action to adjust capacity fares and ancillaries. We anticipate recapturing approximately 35%-45% of fuel prices in Q2. As a result, we expect RASM to increase by over 20% year-over-year in Q2 and stage adjusted RASM to be up high teens on capacity growth of approximately 7%. We expect continued improvement in fuel recovery as the year progresses.

Jimmy Dempsey

This is enhanced by the capacity adjustments we are seeing in overlap markets where our competitive capacity is down 4% in Q2. Our liquidity position at the end of March is strong at nearly $1 billion and anticipate our liquidity to be between $900 million and $950 million at the end of Q2. This puts Frontier in a very strong position to take advantage of the opportunities provided by the fuel crisis. Higher fuel does not change our strategic priority to return to profitability. By staying aligned with our framework and focusing on items we can control, we believe we are well-positioned to navigate near-term volatility while emerging stronger as macro conditions normalize. This is an exciting time for Frontier as America's value airline.

Jimmy Dempsey

Before concluding, I'd like to recognize Team Frontier for driving operational performance improvements and for upholding our commitment to the highest safety standards. This sustained commitment to safety was reinforced by our recent receipt of the FAA's Diamond Award of Excellence for the second consecutive year, the agency's highest recognition for maintenance, training, and safety. The discipline and professionalism our people bring to the airline every day are fundamental to our progress, and I sincerely thank them for their focus and execution. I'll now turn it over to Bobby.

Bobby Schroeder

Thanks, Jimmy. First quarter adjusted revenue was a record for any quarter in Frontier's history, driven by both yield and load factor strength. Total adjusted revenue per passenger increased 10% year-over-year to approximately $128, supported by a nearly 4-point improvement in flown load factor to approximately 78%. This performance came despite the operational disruptions from severe winter weather and extensive TSA delays during the busy spring break travel period. Loyalty momentum extended into the first quarter on record co-brand card acquisitions in February, then again in March, with March card spend reaching an all-time monthly high. Our loyalty assets have consistently been one of our strongest long-term value drivers, and their trajectory is accelerating.

Bobby Schroeder

Turning to the second quarter, our guidance reflects RASM growth of greater than 20% and stage-adjusted RASM up high teens year-over-year, supported by durable demand trends and lower competitive capacity on Frontier routes. We have participated in five broad industry fare actions since the start of March, a clear signal that demand at higher fares remains resilient and that industry capacity discipline is supporting a more constructive pricing environment. As we think about the foundation of our performance expectations, the recent conclusion of Spirit's operations represents an incremental opportunity for Frontier. Our team is focused on helping impacted customers get to their destinations. We have seen significant revenue intake since the weekend, a trend we expect to continue throughout this coming week as those customers who are most acutely impacted seek alternatives.

Bobby Schroeder

Demand for the Frontier product is strong. In the second quarter of 2026, we have more route overlap with Spirit than any other U.S. carrier, uniquely positioning us to recapture the demand they left behind. Drawing on the benefits realized from prior Spirit capacity adjustments, we believe their exit supports a RASM uplift of 3-5% going forward. Scheduled average utilization, net of fuel-driven capacity adjustments, is expected to be higher sequentially, consistent with our strategic plan. Second quarter capacity is expected to be up 6-8% year-over-year on an average stage length of approximately 890 miles, both lower than originally planned, reflecting targeted reductions concentrated in long-haul flying.

Bobby Schroeder

We'll continue to be nimble and tightly manage capacity based on fuel and demand trends, and accordingly, we are reserving updated long-term capacity guidance at this time. On the product side, first-class installations will run through the second half of the year. Wi-Fi vendor selection is in its final stages, with installations beginning in 2027. Combined with the bundle and segmentation enhancements driving non-ticket for passenger growth, we these additions position us to serve a broader customer base while preserving the cost discipline that defines our model. The combination of industry-wide capacity discipline and the continued maturation of our commercial initiatives give us real conviction in our trajectory through year-end. I'll now turn the call to Mark for the financial update.

Mark Mitchell

Thanks, Bobby. Total adjusted operating expenses in the first quarter were $1.1 billion, including $268 million of fuel expenses at an average cost of $2.88 per gallon. Adjusted non-fuel operating expenses were $868 million or $0.0885 per ASM, with the increase over the corresponding 2025 quarter driven largely by lower average daily aircraft utilization and higher fleet-related costs across reduced capacity. As utilization increases and targeted cost savings materialize in line with our strategic plan, we expect a meaningful reduction in our adjusted non-fuel unit costs. First quarter adjusted pre-tax loss was $69 million and adjusted net loss was $68 million, resulting in adjusted loss per share of $0.30 favorable to guidance.

Mark Mitchell

We ended the quarter with $974 million in liquidity, including unrestricted cash and availability from our revolving loan facility. The increase from year-end was principally the result of a significant increase in our air traffic liability, fleet-related activity, and an expansion of our prepaid miles facility, net of operating losses and capital expenditures. As Jimmy mentioned, we expect to exit the second quarter with $900 million-$950 million of total liquidity, bolstered by internal liquidity measures, including fleet-related activity and advanced discussions associated with an extension of the company's co-brand credit card agreement. Our second quarter guidance reflects continued commercial momentum alongside observed demand trends, while elevated fuel prices weigh on expected results. We remain focused on disciplined capital allocation and preserving liquidity through our fleet rightsizing and cost-saving initiatives, lower planned capital spending, and capacity optimization.

Mark Mitchell

From a fleet perspective, following the 7 aircraft inductions in the first quarter, 1 additional than expected, we now expect to take delivery of another 7 aircraft in the second quarter and return 24 aircraft. Furthermore, for full year 2026, we lowered our capital spending guidance range by $30 million, and we are reaffirming the expectation of a reduction in our pre-delivery deposit balance in the range of $170 million-$210 million. We expect our pre-delivery deposit balance to be reduced by this amount resulting from the previously announced agreement to defer the induction of 69 Airbus aircraft, with a similar reduction expected in our related PDP financing facility balance. For more details on our second quarter and full year guidance, refer to the announcement we published this morning.

Mark Mitchell

Given fuel volatility, we expect to provide full year EPS guidance once we have improved visibility into the macro outlook. With that, Elizabeth, we're ready to open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Savanthi Syth with Raymond James. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Savi Syth

Hey, good morning, everyone. Maybe just on the observation that you're expecting like a 3 to 5 percentage point RASM uplift from Spirit's exit. Curious, if that's in the guide that you provided and if just how, you know, what if you're seeing that in current trends or just kinda based on historical trends?

Jimmy Dempsey

Hi, Savi. It's Jimmy here. the 3%-5% RASM uplift is linked to historical trends that we've seen structural change on Spirit's network, where either we had existing capacity or replaced capacity that they walked away from. That's effectively a run rate RASM uplift. We think it's approximately 3%-5%. We actually think it could be higher than that going forward. What's in the guide, we estimate given that the we're guiding Q2, and we're largely halfway through the quarter, we think about 2 points of improvement in the quarter that's built into the guide that we gave today is linked to Spirit shutting down.

Savi Syth

That's helpful. Thank you. If I might just on the fleet, are you still expecting kind of 25 aircraft this year in total and none next year?

Mark Mitchell

Savi, we have 24 aircraft, you know, for this year, and we have 6, you know, for next year. One of the things that wanna highlight, we have, you know, as part of the fleet, the last 5, you know, deliveries of this year and the first 6, you know, of next year, you know, we have an agreement in principle, you know, to sell those aircraft without a corresponding leaseback agreement. You know, as you think about the fleet, while there will be 24 inductions, you will end the year with roughly 171 aircraft, and then there will be no, you know, deliveries that we retain next year.

Jimmy Dempsey

I mean, said another way, Savi, you know, we effectively begin 2026 with the same number of aircraft that we largely end 2027. You know, we'll effectively have the same fleet for those 2 years. That's what's planned at the moment.

Mark Mitchell

Yep.

Jimmy Dempsey

Now we're replacing-

Savi Syth

Thank you.

Jimmy Dempsey

where we're getting the upside on that is actually removing 320 NEOs from the fleet. They're obviously fuel efficient aircraft, but they're 320s, and we're replacing them as we progress through this year, largely with 321 NEOs, which is really an efficiency drive in the airline that's been going on for years.

Savi Syth

Along with utilization, I'm assuming. Perfect. Thank you.

Jimmy Dempsey

Yeah.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Heidorn with Citigroup. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

John Godyn

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Appreciate the color on what's going on with competitive capacity, Spirit overlapping markets, et cetera. You know, there's a debate out there about kind of short term versus long term. Clearly, your commentary and your guidance suggests that there's a benefit that you see and that's growing in kind of the short to medium term as we get to that 3% to 5%. What can you do to kind of protect those profits and those markets longer term? It does seem like there's other competitive capacity kind of trying to backfill Spirit as well.

Jimmy Dempsey

Hi, Jon. Look, there's always going to be in a situation like this that arises, there's always going to be a chase for capacity that occurs across their network. We positioned ourselves over the last 6 to 9 months on launching routes that we thought would be opportunities that come as they reduce their capacity, with the possibility that they would cease operations. You've seen us move quite quickly with an overlap of over 100 routes against Spirit. Look, I'm, we are going to be very, very disciplined in how we deploy incremental capacity into the business. I mean, we're very disciplined on what we're doing in our fleet. Our fleet determines, you know, the availability of aircraft to drive incremental capacity.

Jimmy Dempsey

You know, that discipline is something that we're putting in place across the airline as we administer the new plan that was announced in February, where we're really focused on right-sizing fleets, cost control in the airline, you know, fundamentally fixing the operations to drive loyalty into the business. And we'll make decisions around Spirit capacity as a result or lost capacity in the marketplace, using those measures. In terms of protection of capacity, we're already in over 30% of our business overlapped with them. We'll continue to look at further opportunities as the weeks and months progress.

Bobby Schroeder

One thing I'd add too, just in terms of history here, you know, Spirit has already come out of markets. As we said, we've we have that history to showcase what we think the benefit to us will be. Just the absorption of this, the reductions that have already existed, you know, in May, the backfill of that from an industry perspective has been about 50%. We've been about 40% of that 50%. It showcases the discipline that's existing throughout the industry on capacity adds and backfill.

John Godyn

Okay. If I could just clarify that last point, it sounds like embedded in your 3%-5% view is some sort of normal historical backfill that you've seen from other players as well. Is that fair?

Jimmy Dempsey

No. Like, the 3% to 5% is what is based on history, and there's obviously been a substantial capacity change over the past few days. That's what we expect a 3% to 5% run rate improvement across the system on the back of that, given the overlap that we had with Spirit. As I said to Savi earlier.

John Godyn

Okay.

Jimmy Dempsey

We anticipate about 2 points of that in the near term, and then we'll see how it develops as things normalize in the coming weeks. We think it may be more than 3-5 points.

John Godyn

Okay. Fair enough. Then just one last one on this topic. Over the last year or so, there have been so many scenarios playbooked with Spirit. I'm just curious from here, now that we've had the cessation in operations, are there any opportunities to pick up assets or anything like that? Are there remaining assets? I mean, are there more plays in the playbook from here, or are we done?

Jimmy Dempsey

I mean, look, Spirit announced yesterday that they'll have effectively an orderly wind down of the business. We will look at assets that come out during that wind down. Clearly there's an immediate availability of aircraft assets in their business, and we'll look at opportunities as they present themselves in the coming days and weeks as to whether that is incremental to our business. You know, I just want to reassert that, you know, we're going to be disciplined in any decision we make on the basis that it either improves our unit cost base, improves our market position and network deployment, and fundamentally is a value creator for the business and generates profitability.

Jimmy Dempsey

We'll be focused on that, but we know that there's a significant amount of opportunities that are coming around assets that are within Spirit.

John Godyn

Excellent. Thanks, guys.

Jimmy Dempsey

Thanks.

Bobby Schroeder

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Can you speak to how your second half growth plans may have changed in light of higher fuel? I think the original plan was to dial up utilization in off-peak periods. Again, from arm's length, off-peak historically sounds less exciting from a fuel pass-through perspective. Just how do we square what has changed in the backdrop with the plan to push more in off-peak?

Jimmy Dempsey

Yeah. Hey, Duane. You know, our plan it continues to be to bring off-peak flying back into the business. You know, we just believe we overcut off-peak capacity in the last year, particularly, but certainly in the last two years. What we've seen recently actually is the off-peak capacity performing pretty well from a RASM perspective. I mean, you see our Q2 RASM up over 20%, year-over-year. I mean, that's a huge performance improvement. Obviously, oil prices and fuel recapture on oil prices across the industry is helping that. What we're seeing on off-peak days is pretty positive. Like, I look at our capacity deployment in the last in May and June. We probably cut June a little bit too much.

Jimmy Dempsey

We look at maybe redeploying some capacity opportunistically in June. I do believe we'll continue to trim capacity as the year progresses as part of a package of measures to preserve liquidity and cash, but also to manage the fuel recapture in the business. Certainly Tuesdays, Wednesdays, you know, will probably be the primary focus of that or long stage off-peak times of the day, where we reduce and trim capacity. We're not guiding the second half. Obviously, it's volatile in terms of fare and fuel in the industry at the moment. Directionally, I think we'll be slightly smaller than we had anticipated earlier in the year, but I'm not sure meaningfully smaller.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Okay, Jimmy, I appreciate that. Cutler, I just wanted to follow up with one of Savi's questions. You referred to outright sale of aircraft, and I just wondered, is that a part of the transaction where you're giving back previously leased aircraft, or is this separate, and are you actually selling delivery positions? If so, can you speak to the cash inflow that you would expect in total or per shell, if that's what you're doing? Thank you.

Jimmy Dempsey

Yeah, Duane. Hey. We're not gonna go into the commercial terms of the deal that we've done. We're, you know, as part of the fleet management strategy that we put in place, we wanted to end 2027 with similar number of aircraft as starting 2026, and that's just part of that process.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Scott Group

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Jimmy, you said a couple of times, like, maybe it's gonna be more than 3% to 5%. Maybe it's just too early, but, like, what are you seeing in real time the last few days on those, you know, 100 or so routes where you overlap? Like, you know, if it's truly 30% of your capacity, I would have thought maybe the uplifts could have been more than that 3% to 5%. You seem to think, like, maybe it can, but I don't know. Maybe just some real-time color on what's actually happening in the market.

Jimmy Dempsey

I mean, the 3%-5% is based on history, not based on the last four or five days of activity. What you're seeing in the last four or five days is effectively a reaccommodation process for unfortunate spare consumers who've lost their flights. You're seeing that across the industry. We happen to be in a position where we offer significant value in the industry and at very low fares. Our recapture offer or our rescue fare offer was very attractive into the marketplace. What we're talking about in the 3%-5% is really the run rate on a go-forward basis that we anticipate is improving our system-wide RASM.

Jimmy Dempsey

We just need to normalize out of this period where there's a reaccommodation process going on, and move to a more normalized RASM improvement in these markets. We'll see where we go. The 3-5 points is based on history where we've seen them reduce capacity or exit markets across our system, and the impact it has on us. This is obviously more significant, it could lead to a higher RASM uplift, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Scott Group

Right. Assuming you get that, right, what does this mean for your longer term capacity growth? Like, is it a lot more, a little bit more? Could it mean, hey, we don't want to add any, so we want to keep the benefits of the price? How do you think about that without I know you're not giving specific numbers around long-term capacity, but what are your initial thoughts here?

Jimmy Dempsey

I mean, primarily we want to move the airline back to profitability. I mean, we were on a very, very good trajectory in Q1 prior to the fuel price spike. We were actually gonna get very close to break even in Q1, and we were certainly on a trajectory to make money in Q2, to move our business back to a profitable state, which was very important. We were ahead of our plan. We were quite excited about the progress of the business. That doesn't change, right? We've got a fuel price spike that we've got to manage through, but managing the business over the long term in a disciplined fashion.

Jimmy Dempsey

You know, what we talked about in February was lowering the capacity growth in the airline from, say, 20% to 25% annually to somewhere slightly less than 10% each year. We've got to go through a reset phase in the business so that we can improve utilization. Some of that utilization is delayed given the fuel price spike and the management of the fuel price spike in the short term, but that'll come back in time. We're actually quite excited about the business moving back into a profitable state as fuel prices normalize or as the industry moves to recapture a higher proportion of the fuel price as you progress through this year.

Jimmy Dempsey

Like, our expectation is that you start recapturing a higher proportion of fuel as you progress through this quarter to the end of this quarter and through the rest of the year. Like, I anticipate that we're recapturing close to 50% of the fuel price by the end of Q2. Above the range that we gave you this morning, but progressing to a positive state where maybe the end of this year or into early next year, you're actually recapturing all of the oil price.

Scott Group

Okay. Just last one, if I can. I don't know if I missed any sort of cost or overall or CASM guidance for Q2, but there's so many moving pieces with the models, depreciation, sale, leaseback gains.

Mark Mitchell

Yep

Scott Group

any color around some of the moving parts there.

Mark Mitchell

Yeah. A couple of things, right? As you look at, you know, the financials that are in the P&L and the earnings release, you know, within the rent, maintenance, and depreciation line, you see $139 million of non-recurring charges tied to, you know, the early return of the 24 aircraft. And we have that, you know, detailed out in the release, you just need to normalize for that. If you step back, you know, for the quarter, you know, the CASM X, you know, that we had, you know, is elevated given, you know, the lower utilization in the quarter, you know, on a larger fleet, you know, understanding that we have growth planned, you know, for this year.

Mark Mitchell

Keep in mind as well, when you compare to the prior year, you know, there is a lease extension benefit in that prior year period. If you look forward, as we've highlighted, we expect a meaningful reduction in our CASM X, as we work through the fleet right sizing that we've talked about, as we work through, you know, the cost savings initiatives and those begin to materialize. You are gonna see, you know, a meaningful progress, you know, on the CASM X front. We haven't provided specific guidance, but, you know, we've given those general parameters.

Scott Group

Thank you, guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Shannon Doherty

Oh, hi. This is Shannon Doherty on for Mike. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe Jimmy, when is the $75 million-$95 million cash charge associated with the lease termination being incurred? You know, we expect that you gave us the range last quarter as it was still a work in progress, but do you have a final number now since everything presumably is locked down? Should we expect to see a hit this quarter?

Jimmy Dempsey

Mark's gonna say.

Mark Mitchell

I could touch base on it. Shannon Doherty, in the AK we'd put out earlier in the quarter, we'd given a range of $200 million-$270 million in total, most of that non-cash charges. The range now is right in the middle of that, $212 million-$239 million. When you look at the cash component that we had highlighted before, what you mentioned, the $75 million-$95 million, those cash payments will occur largely in 2028 and 2029.

Shannon Doherty

Okay, thanks to the caller there. For my second question, you know, U.S. government officials have basically expressed that the airline industry does not need a bailout. Where do you stand today in your conversations? Are they still happening maybe as a part of the A4A, you know, in seeking support for higher fuel prices? Thanks for taking the question.

Jimmy Dempsey

Hi, Shannon. Yeah, look, we've got a very strong relationship with Secretary Duffy and the DOT. They requested that we share our perspective on the impact of fuel and the industry dynamics associated with that. You know, Frontier and the A4A, we were encouraged to share the estimates of the fuel impact on the airlines, and we did that and shared the cost impact this year if the volatility persists across the year. Look, we're very focused on self-help and managing the liquidity in the business in a strong fashion. You can see our liquidity position at the end of March is very strong. You've 25% of trading 12 months revenues in cash at the end of March from a liquidity perspective.

Jimmy Dempsey

I mean, that's at the upper end of where this airline has been for many years. We'd prefer it to be a little bit higher, but it's in a pretty strong position. We anticipate, given some measures that we're doing internally, to largely keep it around the same, maybe slightly lower, in terms of liquidity at the end of June. We feel pretty good about our liquidity position as it stands right now. We'll continue to inform the government as to where we are across the A4A members. We feel very good about our liquidity position right now.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Ravi Shanker

Great. Thanks. Morning, everyone. I think you said that you had participated in 5 jet fuel rate price increases this year. I'm not sure if the industry has had 5 or 6 so far. Just wanted to confirm that you guys do intend to participate in kind of any further jet fuel round of price increases across the industry, or will it be more opportunistic?

Jimmy Dempsey

Ravi, we're gonna be opportunistic. I mean, we tend to react to the prices that exist in the marketplace. We've observed multiple attempts at price increases and price increases that have come through. That I suspect will continue as the airline industry seeks to recapture fuel. Look, the fuel price itself is volatile, and the revenue environment is reacting to that at the moment.

Bobby Schroeder

Yeah, and this is Bobby. I mean, look, you know, we're gonna be opportunistic, as Jimmy said, and frankly, you've seen that the customer's resilient with higher fares on that. We'll continue to look at that and optimize it as appropriate.

Ravi Shanker

Got it. Thank you for that. Bobby, maybe you're kind of a good segue to my follow-up question, which is, you know, outside of the Spirit situation, if you guys can just summarize the demand environment as you see it overall, and maybe kind of the confidence that you have that your customer base will be able and willing to accept these price increases without any cracks.

Bobby Schroeder

I mean, look, the demand environment is quite strong. You've seen in Q1 we talked about this. It came from both sides. It came from an increase in yield, and it came in an increase in load factor, flown load factor year-over-year. Seeing is higher fares and people transacting and flying at a higher rate as well. Quite a strong environment from a revenue perspective. Frankly, you know, going forward, there are a variety of things, including the conclusion of Spirit's, you know, operations that provides a lot of opportunity that we'll capitalize on.

Jimmy Dempsey

Yeah, Ravi, just to add to that, like, and we mentioned it in the transcript earlier, you know, our competitive overlap capacity is down 4% year-over-year, which is helpful to Frontier. You can see us outperforming the industry in a year-over-year RASM perspective. We feel pretty good about the RASM trajectory that the airline is on. It was on a very positive RASM trajectory prior to the oil price crisis. You're seeing us perform pretty well in terms of recapture of revenue in our business. You know, we do operate the most fuel-efficient aircraft in the industry.

Jimmy Dempsey

We have a substantial portion of our fleet are 321 NEO aircraft that have the lowest per passenger cost for fuel in the industry. We feel pretty good about the recapture potential in the airline as you progress through this year, particularly given the demand backdrop that we have in the business today.

Ravi Shanker

Very helpful. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna International Group. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos

Good morning. Wanna go back to the 3%-5% RASM uplift. I understand that that's history, it's not exact math here, more directional. If you could, is that market specific? If I look at Spirit's selling schedule and overlaps, I mean, there's a few markets where I think it would perhaps make more sense than others just stage length adjusting RASM. Wanna understand the context, or is that just broad stroke kinda system, "Hey, this is historically how it's looked," and perhaps I'm kind of overthinking this. Thanks.

Bobby Schroeder

Well, it's Look, this is built on a route specific level in terms of how we're reviewing it, and then of course that's rolling up to a range that exists. we've seen, you know, historical benefit that again translates to that 3 to 5. As we've said too, look, there's, you know, connections, variety of other things that can get thrown into there that can create benefit beyond what we've seen. It's early days, we're gonna see, we think that again, that 3 to 5 is a solid number based on what we viewed historically on a route level basis, and there's opportunity for upside potentially within that as well.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos

Okay. Then on the 2Q RASM guide, appreciate you giving the stage length. Could you parse out, if you did, apologies, but on revenue initiatives and peak versus off-peak and any uplift from Spirit that you're seeing there? Just wanna get a better sense of what core is doing, given all the other moving parts around that. Thanks.

Jimmy Dempsey

Yeah. We're actually seeing, Chris, an improvement in off-peak days over and above what we're seeing in other days of the week across this period, which is interesting. We're not gonna specify exactly what that is. It's encouraging to the overall strategy that we're putting in place to bring off-peak capacity back in. What we did lay out for you was the impact of the 3%-5% run rate improvement in Spirit on the quarter earlier in the call. We mentioned that, you know, given that we're more than halfway through the quarter from a booking perspective, you know, we think it's about 2 points of the 20 in RASM that we're talking about for the quarter.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos

Okay. Thank you.

Jimmy Dempsey

RASM improvement. Yeah.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jamie Baker

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. Maybe to start off here, could you share how much of 2Q was booked prior to the spike in fuel? I ask 'cause maybe there's a thought that, you know, the leisure customer has a shorter term booking curve and maybe there is a chance to recapture fuel above peers. Is that the way to think about it?

Jimmy Dempsey

I'm not sure that I think our booking curves are different depending on the segment of the end of the airlines that you're looking at. Q1, you know, obviously March is a bigger portion of the quarter than individually January or February, given that we operate lower capacity. What we have been seeing, and we've been saying this for quite some time, Jamie Baker, is we've been seeing continued improvement in year-over-year RASM in the business. That is across the booking curve that we're seeing.

Jimmy Dempsey

It's improved post the fuel price spike as a result of some things that we've done in terms of capacity adjustments that we've made in our business, but also the industry fare umbrella that exists from the fare increases that are being pushed through by mostly by the major airlines.

Jamie Baker

Okay. That's helpful, Jimmy, thanks. Maybe following up on Bobby's question on demand, you know, and maybe given your experience with Ryanair, you know, how long do you think the consumer can sustain demand at current levels given fuel prices? Is there, you know, a historical time period where you might expect to see consumer softening on kind of discretionary spend?

Jimmy Dempsey

We don't see any sign of the softening of demand in the environment, and we're seeing constructive capacity deployment across the industry. I mean, we feel pretty good about it at the moment. I mean, I can't give you any insight into what happens, you know, beyond the next 3 or 4 months that we're seeing in our booking engine, but what we're seeing in our booking engine continues to be very positive on a year-over-year basis, which gives us confidence that the fuel recapture rate continues to improve as the year progresses.

Jamie Baker

Okay. Thanks for the time.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel McKenzie with Seaport Global. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Daniel McKenzie

Good morning. Thanks for the time here. Couple of questions, apologies for kicking a dead horse here. The 3 to 5 percentage point RASM uplift, one caveat I think is that neither Frontier or Spirit had a meaningful premium product historically. I guess my first question is, I guess, Bobby, can you speak to the revenue contribution from the new premium products and how that's compares with the back of the cabin? I guess in particular, how many points of RASM increase are coming from the premium products today?

Bobby Schroeder

Yeah. Look, right now we have our premium product. We have a variety of them, but UpFront Plus is the one that drives quite a bit of benefit. Won't get into numbers, but it has increased significantly. We think that that actually showcases the demand that we'll have for the first class product as we roll that out in the second half. You know, this is upside, an opportunity that we think exists with our product base and what we can do from a premium product perspective. You're right, we haven't had what other carriers have, and we're starting to move towards where we can capture a larger share from a premium perspective with that product.

Jimmy Dempsey

Yeah, I mean, just to add to what Bobby said, like our loyalty program as a whole is quite immature. There's a huge opportunity within the business to improve loyalty. It requires us, in my opinion, to improve operational performance in the business. We're, you know, we're quite focused on actually improving the operation. There's actually quite a bit of excitement internally in terms of improving the operation of the business and giving value and showcasing our value to the customers. You know, we have put a comprehensive plan in place to improve operations on a multi-year basis. We're seeing some really good positive returns on it. That improved operation and value pro- that we provide to the customer will enhance our loyalty programs over time.

Jimmy Dempsey

First class seats, the introduction of Wi-Fi, they're all additive to diversifying the revenue base of the airline, which we think is very, very important as we move the airline back to profitability.

Bobby Schroeder

Just over the, you know, talking about loyalty specifically, over the past year, we've seen significant penetration increases in the loyalty bookings, so people that are attached to the program itself on the credit card penetration and GoWild! Pass as well. Significant moves, and that's even prior to some of the things that we just talked about. We anticipate again, acceleration and increased benefit in the loyalty program as we move forward through a lot of these initiatives.

Daniel McKenzie

Yeah. Actually raises a lot more questions. I guess, next question is really an OEM question, CASMx question. You know, I'm just wondering if you can speak to the quality and reliability of the A321neos. You know, for those of us that are not close to the OEMs and, you know, close to the quality today, you know, how many spares are you having to carry today, and where would you like that to be preferably? I guess, you know, I'm just trying to get a sense of how much friction might be in the cost structure today from the A321neos.

Jimmy Dempsey

Daniel McKenzie, we started delivering A321neos in 2022. We were really at the very tail end of the powdered metal issue that occurred with the GTF. We have limited friction in our business in relation to the GTF issues. We did last year add to our spares ratio from an engine spare ratio perspective in order to manage any latent issues that we had kind of at the tail end of that powdered metal issue, and that's actually been quite successful in managing, you know, the operational capacity that we can deploy.

Jimmy Dempsey

We're clearly carrying a higher number of spares than you would optimally carry in the business, but we think that that conservative approach is actually performing well from an operational perspective in the business. I do think the overall business is carrying too many spares. But I'm not interested in changing that at the moment from a spare aircraft perspective. I want to see a meaningful improvement in our ability to return aircraft to service every day on time and not eat our spares in the morning in order to do that. That is a multi-year strategy in the business that I think will provide, over time, a meaningful improvement in the ability to lower the spares ratio if we think that that makes sense.

Jimmy Dempsey

In the next year to year and a half, I don't see that as an opportunity in the business.

Daniel McKenzie

All right. Thanks for the time, you guys.

Operator

We have a follow-up question from Savanthi Syth with Raymond James. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Savi Syth

Hey, thanks for taking my follow-up. I'm just curious, as kind of Spirit's kind of freeze up, states in various airports, you know, how is that being allocated? Are you able to kinda access the gates that you need, or is there some airports that you still have to wait and see if you can expand into?

Jimmy Dempsey

It's different by airport, Savi. Yes, I mean, we are very connected into the airport infrastructure discussion at the moment across the network. I mean, look, we're very focused on, as we've announced, growing in Orlando, Vegas, DFW, Fort Lauderdale, and Detroit. We'll continue to pursue infrastructure to support that.

Savi Syth

Got it. Then just to clarify, it doesn't seem like your plans are significantly different in terms of capacity for the second half. I know that's a moving target right now, are you still thinking?

Jimmy Dempsey

Yeah

Savi Syth

kind of reaching 11 and a half hours of utilization by next, by next summer or sometime between here and next summer?

Jimmy Dempsey

A good question. I do think the drive back to getting above 11 hours, so to 11 and a half hours as you mentioned, will be somewhat delayed because of the fuel price spike. I don't think it'll be meaningfully delayed. We are managing our cost base very diligently. And that's inclusive of training classes for pilots and flight attendants and other things in order to manage the timing of new hires into the business to support like a production level of 11 and a half hours a day. I think it will be slightly delayed, but not by much.

Savi Syth

Got it. Thank you.

Jimmy Dempsey

Really depends on how long the fuel crisis goes on for.

Savi Syth

Makes sense.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jimmy Dempsey for closing remarks.

Jimmy Dempsey

Yeah. Thanks everybody for attending our call. We are very focused on delivering the plan that we set out in February. We're seeing real promise in the airline in terms of performance and driving the airline back to a return to profitability. Clearly, recapturing higher fuel prices is very important to the business, and we're working diligently to do that as we progress through this year. I think the airline sits in a very strong position given the opportunity that exists from the last few days, where capacity has changed quite dramatically on overlap routes. We think that's very positive for Frontier, and we look forward to talking to you guys in the coming months about our progression around taking advantage of that opportunity.

Jimmy Dempsey

Thank you very much.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-01

Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Zacks

Allegiant Travel (ALGT) came out with quarterly earnings of $3.77 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.4 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.81 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +10.88%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this travel services company would post earnings of $2.01 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.86, delivering a surprise of +42.29%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. Allegiant Travel, which belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry, posted revenues of $732.43 million for the quarter ended March 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.89%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $699.07 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Allegiant Travel shares have lost about 12.6% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 4.2%. While Allegiant Travel has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Allegiant Travel was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the comple...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-30

Analysts Estimate Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (SNCY) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Zacks

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (SNCY) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise. This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.70 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -2.8%. Revenues are expected to be $344.02 million, up 5.3% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 123.81% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction). The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings onl...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-28

Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?

Zacks

Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price. The earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 5, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise. This discount airline is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.38 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -100%. Revenues are expected to be $1.04 billion, up 13.5% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 3711.11% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive po...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-30

Unpacking Q4 Earnings: Frontier (NASDAQ:ULCC) In The Context Of Other Consumer Discretionary - Travel and Vacation Providers Stocks

StockStory

As the Q4 earnings season comes to a close, it’s time to take stock of this quarter’s best and worst performers in the consumer discretionary - travel and vacation providers industry, including Frontier (NASDAQ:ULCC) and its peers. The Consumer Discretionary sector, by definition, is made up of companies selling non-essential goods and services. When economic conditions deteriorate or tastes shift, consumers can easily cut back or eliminate these purchases. For long-term investors with five-year holding periods, this creates a structural challenge: the sector is inherently hit-driven, with low switching costs and fickle customers. As a result, only a handful of companies can reliably grow demand and compound earnings over long periods, which is why our bar is high and High Quality ratings are rare. Travel and vacation providers operate tour packages, cruise lines, online travel agencies, and vacation rental platforms, connecting consumers with leisure and business travel experiences. Tailwinds include robust post-pandemic travel demand, a consumer preference shift toward experiences over goods, and technology-enabled personalization improving conversion and loyalty. However, headwinds are significant: the industry is acutely sensitive to macroeconomic cycles, geopolitical instability, and fuel price volatility. Low switching costs mean fierce price competition, while capacity additions in segments like cruises can lead to oversupply. Regulatory burdens, weather disruptions, and public health risks further create episodic but potentially severe demand shocks. The 19 consumer discretionary - travel and vacation providers stocks we track reported a mixed Q4. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 1.7% while next quarter’s revenue guidance was 0.7% below. Amidst this news, share prices of the companies have had a rough stretch. On average, they are down 7.4% since the latest earnings results. Recognizable for the colorful animals adorning each aircraft tail, Frontier Group Holdings (NASDAQ:ULCC) is an ultra low-cost airline that provides budget-friendly flights throughout the United States and select international destinations in the Americas. Frontier reported revenues of $997 million, flat year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 2.3%. Overall, it was a strong quarter for the company with a beat of analysts’ EPS and adjus...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-02-18

The 5 Most Interesting Analyst Questions From Frontier’s Q4 Earnings Call

StockStory

Frontier’s fourth quarter results drew a negative market reaction, as investors focused on flat year-over-year sales despite surpassing Wall Street’s revenue and non-GAAP EPS expectations. Management attributed the lack of growth to ongoing fleet adjustments and operational initiatives, with new CEO James Dempsey highlighting a need to “do better across the business and deliver increased value for all our stakeholders.” Dempsey described 2025 as a “transition year,” marked by efforts to rightsize the fleet, improve cost discipline, and enhance operational reliability, acknowledging that previous underperformance in on-time metrics and cancellations required urgent attention. Is now the time to buy ULCC? Find out in our full research report (it’s free). Revenue: $997 million vs analyst estimates of $974.4 million (flat year on year, 2.3% beat) Adjusted EPS: $0.23 vs analyst estimates of $0.13 (71.8% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $75 million vs analyst estimates of $257.1 million (7.5% margin, 70.8% miss) Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $0.05 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 318% Operating Margin: 4.9%, in line with the same quarter last year Revenue passenger miles: 7.74 billion, in line with the same quarter last year Market Capitalization: $1.22 billion While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention. Atul Maheswari (UBS) asked about the balance between network infill and new market growth. CEO James Dempsey explained half of growth will come from utilizing the existing network more efficiently, while the other half targets new opportunities resulting from competitor capacity reductions. Jamie Baker (JPMorgan Securities) questioned assumptions behind the $200 million cost savings, specifically regarding labor costs. Dempsey clarified that no pilot contract changes were included in the guidance, and savings will primarily come from reduced rent and operational efficiencies. Katherine Kallergis (Morgan Stanley) sought clarity on guidance range drivers. CFO Mark Mitchell explained that the wide range reflects timing of cost savings, operational reset, and uncertainties in a transitio...

As of 2026-05-30 • Updated weeklySource: Earnings sourceIngestion runbook