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ULCC

Frontier GroupC
Nasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: Successful execution of fleet optimization (sale‑leasebacks) plus unit‑revenue recovery and continued CASM improvements materially boost free cash flow and support re‑rating toward the $8.00 bull target.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
Fleet-transaction execution risk (sale-leaseback/returns deviate from plan)
Momentum
24
Value
34
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.87 · Bull $8.00 · Bear $4.00Analysis 2026-02-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.33
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d -19.6
Value34 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment79 · Δ7d -9.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fleet-transaction execution risk (sale-leaseback/returns deviate from plan)
  • • Jet-fuel price spike or hedging shortfalls raising unit costs
  • • Bear case: Demand weakness, fuel or labor cost shocks, or failed execution on fleet/capacity adjustments compress margins and cash flow, leaving the stock near the $4.00 downside scenario.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · BMO

Q4 2025 / Full‑Year 2025 Earnings (reported)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
24
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.6
Δ21d
-41.9
Value
34
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
79
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.4
Δ21d
+17.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 23.6 / Value 33.6 / Sentiment 79.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$5.87
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$1.13B
Beta
2.55
Shares Out
230.22M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.2
P/S (TTM)
0.30
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-8.82
Rev YoY
+37.7%
EPS YoY
+27.4%
Gross Margin
-5.2%
Op Margin
-17.2%
Net Debt
$4.79B
Current Ratio
0.58
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data