B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$195.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TXRH
Texas RoadhouseDNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Sustained comparable-sales growth, management-cited strong traffic, and 5%–6% planned store-week growth could support earnings if commodity inflation moderates as expected. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.0.
What can break
Approximately $400 million of planned 2026 capital expenditures increases the importance of new-unit returns and cash generation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
19
Value
47
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $169.00 · Bull $195.00 · Bear $130.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $211.57
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d -1.8
Value47 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +2.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Approximately $400 million of planned 2026 capital expenditures increases the importance of new-unit returns and cash generation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Q2 commodity inflation of 7.0% and wage and other labor inflation of 3.9% compressed restaurant margin despite higher sales. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Q2 diluted EPS slipped 0.7% while restaurant margin narrowed 66 basis points; persistent food and labor costs could prevent sales growth from translating into earnings growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-15
Commodity-cost and restaurant-margin test
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
+5.6
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
-14.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 18.7 / Value 47.4 / Sentiment 55.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$169.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.87B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
65.64M
P/E (TTM)
26.6
P/S (TTM)
1.98
P/FCF (TTM)
70.09
Rev YoY
+11.1%
EPS YoY
-0.7%
Gross Margin
+12.1%
Op Margin
+8.2%
Net Debt
$842.01M
Current Ratio
0.46
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data