B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
+75.9% vs current
TPB
Turning Point BrandsANYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$122.00
+48.0% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
-11.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+92.6
Score
AI commentary
News tone around the May 7 print was constructive because the company beat on sales growth, raised Modern Oral guidance, and introduced FY2026 EBITDA guidance; secondary price-history data show an approximately 11% move on May 7, though the gain later cooled. Analyst-revision coverage in the packet is thin, so the report stays a monitored rerating view rather than a fully de-risked bullish call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-07eventQ1 beat-and-raise on Modern OralHigh impact
Q1 2026 net sales rose 16.8% to $124.3 million, Modern Oral net sales increased 133% to $52.0 million and reached 42% of total sales, and management raised FY2026 Modern Oral sales guidance while introducing FY2026 EBITDA guidance. [#8-K-2026-05-07]
2026-06-30catalystSG&A and Zig-Zag softness cap near-term upsideMedium impact
Near-term margin pressure is still real: consolidated SG&A increased 53.2% to $55.8 million, Zig-Zag net sales fell 22.4%, and the 10-Q shows PMTA-related costs remained in the quarter. [#8-K-2026-05-07][#10-Q-2026-05-08]
2026-12-31catalystModern Oral mix shift can still drive reratingHigh impact
The core long case remains the mix shift toward higher-growth Modern Oral, which management is investing behind through brands, commercial capabilities, consumer reach, and the TKO/UFC partnership; that mix shift can support a multi-quarter rerating if distribution and share gains continue. [#8-K-2026-05-07]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology