TPB
Turning Point BrandsDNYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
Current thesis
Modern Oral remains the core growth engine: the company reported 133% Modern Oral net sales growth in Q1, raised FY2026 Modern Oral gross sales guidance to $280 million-$300 million, and is still expanding retail distribution while investing behind brand building and supply control. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-08][#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.
What can break
Analyst revision coverage is thin, so the rerating case has limited external validation.
Momentum
24
Value
43
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
— · Net —
AI TargetsBase $102.00 · Bull $132.50 · Bear $69.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-18
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-18
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net —
Target $130.00
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d -11.1
Value43 · Δ7d +1.0
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +3.1
So what
Weak posture. Prioritize risk control and patience.
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
24
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.1
Δ21d
+1.2
Value
43
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
70
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+4.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 23.9 / Value 43.0 / Sentiment 69.8
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-17
Market Cap
$1.6B
Beta
0.88
Shares Out
19.37M
P/E (TTM)
33.4
P/S (TTM)
5.27
P/FCF (TTM)
61.36
Rev YoY
+16.8%
EPS YoY
-24.0%
Gross Margin
+56.8%
Op Margin
+23.6%
Net Debt
$86.21M
Current Ratio
5.87
As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology