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Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-28A Look At Triumph Financial’s Valuation After Its Strong First Quarter Earnings Turnaround
Simply Wall St.
A Look At Triumph Financial’s Valuation After Its Strong First Quarter Earnings Turnaround
Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St's easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge. Triumph Financial (TFIN) has moved into focus after its first quarter earnings showed net interest income of US$86.09 million and net income of US$6.36 million, compared with minimal profit a year earlier. See our latest analysis for Triumph Financial. The earnings release and upcoming AGM appear to have sharpened interest, with the share price at US$68.40 and a 30 day share price return of 22.87%, while the 1 year total shareholder return sits at 27.40% and the 5 year total shareholder return remains negative at 22.26%. This suggests momentum has picked up recently after a weaker multi year run. If Triumph Financial has caught your eye and you want to see what else is moving, this is a good moment to broaden your search with 18 top founder-led companies With the share price close to analyst estimates and a recent jump in returns, the key question is whether Triumph Financial is still trading below its intrinsic value, or whether the market is already factoring in its future prospects. With the most followed narrative putting Triumph Financial’s fair value at $67.80 against a last close of $68.40, the current price sits slightly above that central estimate while still tracking the same general range. Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue growth, margin lift, and valuation multiple are baked into that small premium to fair value? The full narrative lays out a detailed earnings ramp, a shift in how Triumph Financial makes money, and a future profit multiple that looks very different to a typical bank. The numbers behind that story may surprise you. Result: Fair Value of $67.80 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the story can change quickly if Triumph’s trucking focused exposure is affected by a freight downturn, or if tech spending and integrations outpace the revenue they are meant to support. Find out about the key risks to this Triumph Financial narrative. With mixed signals around Triumph Financial, the real question is how you weigh the upside against the risks. Move quickly, review the details, and decide where you stand with 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign Do not stop with one company, broaden your opportunity set now by scanning other stocks on Simp...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-24Triumph Financial Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
MarketBeat
Triumph Financial Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
Triumph showed strong transportation momentum, with transportation revenue up 23% year-over-year and management saying Factoring operating margin is “80% better” than a year ago while core Payments is on track toward a 50% EBITDA margin, even as it continues to invest in LoadPay and Intelligence which are not yet profitable. Management highlighted a tightening freight market and rising invoice prices—average invoice moved from about $1,769 a year ago to $1,897 at quarter-end and roughly $2,011 quarter-to-date—attributing the shift to capacity exits and regulatory enforcement that support pricing but are not being relied upon in forecasts. Under its “North Star” framework Triumph targets at least 15% annual transportation revenue growth (management expects “at least 20%” this year) and said meeting these metrics at current margins could yield roughly $1 per share, while the company aims to keep expenses relatively flat to drive operating leverage. Interested in Triumph Financial, Inc.? Here are five stocks we like better. Triumph Financial Stock Breakout: Why It's Just the Beginning Triumph Financial (NYSE:TFIN) executives struck an upbeat tone on the company’s first-quarter earnings call, pointing to improving performance in its transportation-focused businesses and early signs of a strengthening freight market. Management emphasized that recent commentary has shifted away from product development and toward “revenue and margin,” while noting the company continues to invest in growth initiatives that are not yet profitable. Luke Wyse, EVP and head of investor relations, said the quarter showed “real progress on the things that matter most,” including factoring customer growth during what he called “the slowest quarter of the trucking calendar.” Wyse added that Triumph’s payments business showed the revenue growth and margin expansion management has been highlighting, and said LoadPay “now exceeds more accounts than we have factoring clients.” → The Trade Desk: Down 75%, But a Reversal May Be Near On the call, a company executive said the shareholder letter’s “shift in tone” was intentional because Triumph “is now in a different place,” moving from discussions about “logos and density and product development pipelines” to “revenue and margin.” At the same time, management said it is still investing for the future, noting that “LoadPay and Intelligence are not...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-23Triumph Financial Inc (TFIN) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Transportation Revenue ...
GuruFocus.com
Triumph Financial Inc (TFIN) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Transportation Revenue ...
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Release Date: April 22, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Triumph Financial Inc (NYSE:TFIN) reported a 23% growth in transportation revenue over the past year, despite a challenging freight environment. The company's factoring operating margin improved by 80% compared to the previous year. The core payments network is rapidly growing and is on track to achieve a 50% EBITDA margin. Triumph Financial Inc (NYSE:TFIN) is experiencing strong demand in its intelligence business, with 50 net new logos added in the past two quarters. The company is focused on value-based pricing, ensuring that they deliver more value than they ask from their customers, which is expected to sustain long-term growth. The bank segment experienced a decline in yields due to the rate environment and additional mortgage warehouse deposits, impacting overall profitability. Load Pay and intelligence segments are not yet profitable, indicating ongoing investment needs. Higher oil prices could potentially offset the benefits from higher invoice prices in the factoring business. The freight market remains uncertain, with potential impacts from regulatory changes and geopolitical risks. Triumph Financial Inc (NYSE:TFIN) faces challenges in reducing expenses significantly while aiming for substantial revenue growth in transportation. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Sign with TFIN. Is TFIN fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Q: Can you clarify the $1 of incremental earnings mentioned in the shareholder letter? A: Our target is 15% greater transportation revenue growth annually. If achieved at current margins, this would generate about $1 per share of earnings, assuming operating income and corporate expenses remain flat. (Respondent: Unidentified_2) Q: What caused the decline in yields across all segments, particularly in the bank segment? A: The decline was mainly due to the rate environment impacting our bottom line. Additionally, mortgage warehouse deposits, compensated through loan rebates, compressed reported yields but benefited us overall. (Respondent: Unidentified_5) Q: Can truckload freight pricing continue to rise without the Delilah law passing? A: Yes, we believe pricing can rise due to structural changes in trucking capacity from regula...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-22Triumph Financial Q1 Swings to Earnings, Revenue Rises
MT Newswires
Triumph Financial Q1 Swings to Earnings, Revenue Rises
Triumph Financial (TFIN) reported Q1 earnings late Tuesday of $0.23 per diluted share, swinging from
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-22Triumph Financial (TFIN) Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates
Zacks
Triumph Financial (TFIN) Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates
Triumph Financial (TFIN) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.23 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.15 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.04 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +53.33%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this financial holding company would post earnings of $0.29 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.77, delivering a surprise of +165.52%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times. Triumph Financial, which belongs to the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, posted revenues of $105.8 million for the quarter ended March 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.75%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $101.57 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Triumph Financial shares have added about 6.7% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 3.9%. While Triumph Financial has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Triumph Financial was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can se...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-22Triumph Financial sets new metrics, has strong quarter in factoring
FreightWaves
Triumph Financial sets new metrics, has strong quarter in factoring
The quarterly letter to investors penned by CEO Aaron Graft for the first quarter sets new metrics for the trucking-focused financial services company, as well as praising the group’s factoring division. The letter, and Triumph Financial’s (NASDAQ: TFIN) first quarter earnings, were released Tuesday after the market close. The company’s earnings call is Wednesday. Graft’s letter, several pages of detail that is unique in the industry, has in the past been more likely to focus on Triumph Financial’s Payments segment than Factoring, which is a long-held business. Payments, with its open-loop auditing and payment network, is the more disruptive offering at Triumph Financial and is targeted to be an increasing percentage of the company’s profitability. But the most praise from Graft this quarter was targeted at Factoring, though results in Payments were strong as well. Graft’s praise for Factoring came in the fact that it increased its total purchased volume of invoices by 20.5% from a year ago, and 4.6% increase sequentially, even though the first quarter tends to be soft. “That is robust growth for a mature business,” Graft said. “I am also impressed with how our team outperformed seasonality in the first quarter.” Factoring invoice volumes declined 3.5% while Payments dropped 9.2%, another point of praise from Graft for the Factoring segment relative to its corporate peer. In discussing the new metrics, which Graft described as Triumph Financial’s “North Star,” the CEO said they are the numbers “that matter most.” The new benchmarks are total revenue growth in Transportation, which includes both Factoring and Payments but not banking; the operating margin in Factoring; and the EBITDA margin in the Payments segment, excluding the relatively new LoadPay product, a wallet-like offering that is targeted directly at the finances of individual drivers. It also includes the gross margin for the company’s relatively new Intelligence unit, which based on past performance is projected to have annual recurring revenue of $8.4 million. Still looking at growth, but focus on new KPIs “We used to talk about logos, density, and product roadmap; we now talk about revenue growth and margin,” Graft said of the new North Star goals. “This does not mean we have stopped innovating or pursuing growth — it means we expect those efforts to show up in our numbers. We will continue put...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-22Triumph Financial, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Moby
Triumph Financial, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Management signaled a deliberate shift in tone from product development and logo acquisition to revenue growth and margin expansion at scale. The company grew transportation revenue by 23% over the last year despite a difficult freight environment and outperformed seasonal trends in Q1 by maintaining flat revenue instead of the typical 7% to 9% decline. Factoring operating margins improved by 80% compared to the prior year, driven by enhanced back-office efficiency and a shift in client mix toward larger enterprise fleets. The Payments network is scaling toward a 50% EBITDA margin target, utilizing value-based pricing that aligns with the delivery of new audit and payment features. Management attributes recent performance to a 'structural change' in trucking capacity caused by increased regulatory enforcement and carriers exiting the market. The company successfully maintained flat transportation revenue from Q4 to Q1, a period that typically sees a 7% to 9% seasonal decline. The company expects to grow transportation revenue by at least 20% in 2025, assuming a relatively flat freight environment as a baseline. Management projects that achieving North Star revenue and margin targets could generate approximately $1 of incremental annual earnings per share. The Factoring segment is expected to exit the year with an operating margin of approximately 40%, supported by organic client growth and automation. Guidance for Q2 expenses is set at $97 million, with a long-term strategy to hold fixed costs relatively flat while growing revenue to create operating leverage. The company anticipates a 'tight market' through the remainder of the year if supply remains structurally constrained while demand increases. The banking segment experienced yield compression due to a declining rate environment and loan rebates associated with mortgage warehouse deposits. Triumph is actively winding down its ABL and liquid credit portfolios, with most expected to be off the books within two to three quarters to simplify the balance sheet. Management expressed support for federal preemption regarding broker liability, noting that an adverse Supreme Court ruling could inject volatility and friction into the industry. LoadPay and Intelligence segments remain in the investment phase and are not yet profitable, though they are viewed as critical long-term value drivers. Our analysts just id...
TranscriptFY2026 Q12026-04-22FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 100 paragraphs
FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript
Good morning. It's 9:30 A.M. in Dallas. Thanks for joining us this morning and for the interest in our first quarter results. We're glad you're here. We've all had our coffee, so let's get to business. Aaron's letter last evening outlined a quarter of real progress on the things that matter most. During the slowest quarter of the trucking calendar, we grew factoring customers and outgrew the general market's seasonal decline. Payments demonstrated the revenue growth and continued margin expansion we've been alluding to, and LoadPay now exceeds more accounts than we have factoring clients. The positive momentum is palpable, and you can see the results in Aaron's comments in the letter. That quarterly shareholder letter, published last evening, and our quarterly results will form the basis of our call today. However, before we get started, I would like to remind you that this call may include forward-looking statements.
Those statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual and anticipated results to differ. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise any forward-looking statement. For details, please see the safe harbor statement in our shareholder letter published last evening. All comments made during today's call are subject to that safe harbor statement. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Aaron for a welcome and to kick off our Q&A. Aaron?
Thank you, Luke. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. For those of you who read the letter before the call, I hope you appreciated the shift in tone. It was intentional because Triumph is now in a different place. We have moved from talking about logos and density and product development pipelines to talking more about revenue and margin, and that shift has shown up in our numbers, even with the seasonality Luke talked about. Now, the shift in tone does not mean we are done innovating or investing for the future. For example, LoadPay and Intelligence are not yet profitable, and we still continue to invest in them because we see the growth and the opportunity to create long-term value. It's the same vision we had years ago for Factoring and for the Payments network, both of which have paid off.
Speaking of those two lines of business, our operating margin in Factoring is 80% better than it was a year ago, and the core Payments network is growing rapidly and is on its way to achieving a 50% EBITDA margin. I believe those are industry-leading numbers. The cascading requirements for being a successful technology company are, first, can you build it? Second, can you distribute it? And third, can you be profitable at scale? We are at the third step of that analysis for a large part of our transportation business, and I believe the results speak for themselves. We grew transportation revenue over the last year by 23%, and that was done in a freight environment that was very difficult. We expect to grow at least 20% again this year. There is a lot of good to celebrate after what has been a very long winter in freight.
Speaking of a long winter in freight, I'm not sure outsiders have appreciated how much the freight recession of the last four years has tried to throw sand in the gear of what Triumph has been building. It's been a tough slog, but we stayed committed to our vision, and if we get a more normal market from here, we are very well-positioned to benefit from it. With that, I'll turn the call over for questions.
We will now move to our question and answer session. If you have joined via the webinar, please use the Raise Hand icon, which can be found at the bottom of your webinar application. When you are called on, please unmute your line and ask your question. We will now pause a moment to assemble the queue. Our first question will come from Gary Tenner with D.A. Davidson. You may now unmute and ask your question.
Thanks. Good morning, everybody.
Good morning, Gary.
I had a couple of questions. First, in your shareholder letter, Aaron, you have a lot of kind of updated thoughts around profitability margins, KPIs, et cetera. Where it leads off with the North Star commentary below that first table and talking about if you achieve the revenue growth and margin targets, all else equal, you should generate roughly a dollar of incremental earnings annually. What is that relative to? I'm not quite clear in terms of my understanding of kind of what that is relative to what the base is and what you're comparing.
Sure. What I meant by that is our target was 15% or greater transportation revenue growth annually. If you can do that at the margins at which we currently operate, which are not yet to those final North Star metrics, but at the margins we currently operate at, you're going to generate about $1 per share of earnings if operating income in the bank stays relatively flat, the corporate segment stays relatively flat. That was what we were trying to show. Does that make sense?
I think so. If I have a follow-up to that, I'll do so. Then I'm curious, and I've had some inbound questions about kind of the yields this quarter. It looks like the yields really in all three segments came down, the Bank segment particularly. I'm just curious about noise there, what the drivers were, and frankly, beyond the Bank segment, I mean, in the Factoring and Payments segment, I know that obviously there's an element of timing of collections that impact the yields, but just curious what the moving parts were there.
Yeah, I'll take the Bank segment part of that question. There were really two main drivers, one of which impacts our bottom line and one of which actually doesn't impact our bottom line. The one that impacts our bottom line, of course, is the rate environment. The declining rate environment certainly contributed to lower yields, and that was a significant part of the overall decline you saw.
The one that doesn't is related to the additional mortgage warehouse deposits that we brought in in the quarter, and the fact that the way that those are compensated is through loan rebates, so rebates on the yield of the mortgage warehouse loans. Net-net, that benefits us as an enterprise, but it does compress the yields as they're reported.
Yeah. Gary, in the other segments, I would assume you're also referencing the Factoring segment, which Kim and I can speak to, but I would just say that that is always going to be driven by mix shift, right? Or the mix of large enterprise factoring clients versus smaller clients, which we wrote about in this letter, the difference between having a single fleet with 500 trucks versus 500 owner-operators. Secondly, I just think the industry technology, a lot of things are working together to make the industry more efficient, and so that yield profile reflects. I mean, while Triumph's getting better, we would be foolish to think we're the only people getting better at being efficient. I think those would be the two largest contributing factors there.
Okay. I appreciate. I'll step back.
Sure.
Your next question will come from Timothy Switzer with KBW.
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.
Yeah.
I was looking for a little bit more color on the freight environment. Aaron, I really appreciate your comments in the letter, but do you guys believe we can continue to see truckload freight pricing move higher even if this Dalilah Law is not passed, rather than just pricing stay where it is? I mean, do you guys have a sense at all for this law passing and the timeline for it, given it's a midterm year, we have a war going on, all that can kind of distract Congress a bit?
Yeah. Well, obviously, this is the question that a lot of people have. I'm going to start, and then I'd love for Kim to follow up on because, I think our Factoring business, it tells part of the story and just what we've seen there. Look, there is a whole lot getting written about this in our industry. We agree with the overall sentiment that this is supply-side driven. We are seeing a structural change in trucking capacity as a result of multiple regulatory initiatives, some of which are new, and some of which are just enforcing laws that are on the books. We started seeing that last year. The question is: Will we see that continue?
I think the answer is yes, because I don't even know that you need Dalilah's Law to pass to see what's already been in flight from the Department of Transportation and FMCSA. The second big question is what happens if supply stays structurally changed as it now appears to be, and you see demand increase throughout the rest of the year? Well, that would create a very tight market. We think it holds on the supply side. Kim, I think it'd be great to speak about what we're seeing, with 8,000 clients in our Factoring business.
Yeah. Right now we're seeing a pretty solid, healthier pipeline than we saw the previous year. Exiting 2025, we started to see a decrease in capacity with carriers leaving the market, just with the English proficiency that was coming out, the non-domicile conversations that we're hearing. I think that we're seeing the movement in the spot rate continue to improve.
Yeah. I think, specifically, let's talk about what we've seen a year ago now and what we've seen even quarter to date.
Yeah. Our average invoice price a year ago was about $1,769, and, ending the quarter, was $1,897. Today, quarter to date, we're seeing $2,011.
Wow. Interesting. Okay. On the other side of the outlook here, at what point do higher oil prices begin to offset the higher pricing in the Factoring business, higher invoice levels? Is there an oil price level or length of time where the costs remain elevated that it just fully offsets the benefit from higher invoice prices?
Well, I mean, you're asking a question there. If you're just talking about the math of an average invoice, then higher diesel prices improves margins, right? Because it's going to drive up, especially in the spot market, average invoice prices. But the increase in the spot market has started before oil prices moved materially in March. It really started in December, continued in January, and then it has picked up since March. Really the test, Tim, is at what price of oil do we start to slow down the overall economy? Because if we slow down the overall economy, then we see demand degradation. What we have seen so far in what should have been our slowest quarter, and I presume will be, is that we have not seen demand fall off. We haven't seen it tick up other than in flatbed, but it's been relatively flat.
You've seen a structural change from capacity leaving the market. And then since March, which doesn't really show up in a lot of our numbers, but will probably show up in Q2, you're seeing the impact of the spot market adjust and the contract market will follow and adjust for higher diesel prices, which, as Kim alluded to, you're seeing average invoice prices month to date in April over $2,000. We're not back to Q4 of 2021, Q1 of 2022, which was $2,500 invoice prices. That was a very different market. ou are seeing strengthening despite the supply leaving the system, demand's hung in there. It's just a question of when do higher oil prices hurt demand, and we're not economists. We're not able to answer that question.
Got you. Totally understand. I'll jump back in the queue, but I know you guys have always been hesitant to call the bottom of the freight recession, which I think you've been proved right on. It seems like this is maybe the most optimistic scenario you guys have had in front of you in terms of the factoring business over the last, I don't know, three or four years.
I used the term long winter in the opening and there was a reason that we used that term. I think our job is to create value for customers, which translates into value for investors. The test, in my view, isn't what it does for Triumph. The real test is can a law-abiding carrier earn their cost of capital? And I would submit to you that since the middle part of 2022 through now, through the present, or let's call it the end of last year, a significant portion of law-abiding carriers struggled to earn their cost of capital because of a market that was soft for a variety of reasons, not the least of which was capacity operating within it that was not following all of the laws, rules, and regulations. We as a society have passed those laws because we want safe roadways.
And we as an industry should want a marketplace where shippers, brokers, carriers, factors, everyone can earn their cost of capital. What we are seeing right now is dawn may be breaking for what's been a long time. Who knows what will happen? We're in the midst of a war. There's geopolitical risks. There's all sorts of risks. But as we look at it right now, I'm as optimistic as I've been in a very long time.
Love to hear that. Thanks, Aaron.
Sure.
Your next question will come from Joe Yanchunis with Raymond James.
Good morning.
Morning, Joe.
It sounds like the groundhog didn't see a shadow.
We hope not.
I was hoping to start with the Supreme Court case over broker liability and the potential impacts to Triumph should the industry lose that case. I would assume it would be a headwind for your payments and factoring segments, but could potentially be beneficial to your intelligence segment and insurance division. I could be wrong there. Any thoughts on this would be helpful.
Yeah. Well, all businesses desire certainty, right? And that's what we've had for many years with understanding that the responsibility for licensing of carriers is a governmental responsibility. I think I can speak for all of Triumph that we would take the position of the industry or of the brokerage industry of where we would land on that Supreme Court case. We don't know how it will play out. Here's what we do know. That number one, the government appears to have woken up to its responsibility with licensing regulation and enforcement. That is most welcome. We really appreciate that. We don't think it is effective for the industry, for industry providers to be tasked with that. That feels like a governmental responsibility.
If that Supreme Court case goes the other way, and so there's no longer federal preemption of all the state law tort, negligent entrustment claims, what does it mean? Well, number one, freight's still going to move, and brokers are still going to be very important in freight moving because the industry is built that way. It's going to change what role insurance would play, for sure, and it will likely change how brokers think about tendering freight to certain carriers. Brokers pay attention to that already, but of course, you're going to now be thinking through what will it mean in this state? What is precedent in this state? It's going to create a lot of friction around the business. We need safe roadways. We need a clear operating parameters because we deal with a marketplace where there can't be prolonged negotiations over the movement of freight.
It has to move quickly. We need a repeatable transactional process. I don't know if where the Supreme Court lands is really going to have an effect on Triumph's business. I think it'll inject volatility, and we generally are in a position that we can weather that, or even in some cases, benefit from it. In our hope for the good of the industry, we think federal preemption is the right answer, so long as it's coupled with proper enforcement of the regulations that are on the books to keep our roadways safe.
Okay, I appreciate that. All right, shifting to the outlook. The outlook calls for 20% or at least 20% transportation-related revenue growth in 2026, which has a 4Q assumed a flat rate environment. Well, the freight market seems to be on fire right now. Red hot. C.H. Robinson's in the market calling for spot rate growth of 17% ex fuel. Your shareholder letter, you reiterated that Factoring segment revenue growth would be in the low teens. How do we square that with what we're currently seeing in the market? The recent, I think you noted that average invoices were over $2,000, recent market share gains. What type of invoice volume growth and what average invoice size are implied in this low teens growth outlook for Factoring?
Brad, do you want to take that one?
Sure. Yeah. Joe, as we look at the Factoring portfolio specifically, just look at what has happened over the last year. Our number of invoices purchased in the first quarter of this year was about 12% higher than it was in the first quarter of last year. That low teens growth, we were approaching that, in the year that we just finished. I think that we should be able to continue that. Anything that we get on top of that from invoice price growth would certainly be welcome. We're not counting on it, but we would certainly appreciate the tailwind.
Yeah, we're not going to recast. When we gave you those projections, and even in the North Star metrics, the metrics that matter most, those are not forecasts. They were guidelines. I can appreciate that investors will. Is that a distinction without a difference? If you run the business, it's a very important distinction. We weren't trying to forecast what was going to happen in the market. What we were trying to do is for Kim and Todd and Don and David and the people who lead our businesses, what do we need to do to position ourselves to grow revenue, and we will not make any assumptions about what the market might do because, and that's not our job as operators. Of course, we pay attention to it.
When I look at, take Factoring, for example, and what Kim and the team have done there to be positioned to organically grow, which we have not done in several years, and to do that while improving back office efficiency, I'm thrilled with that. If we, in addition to that, catch a tailwind, then maybe those mid-teen numbers change. We're going to stick to the guidelines we gave because that's how we're running the business. We acknowledge we operate in a business where the environment changes every day, and right now it's been very positive changes. What it will be a quarter from now, we have no idea. We certainly are appreciative of where things are now.
Got it. It sounds like it could potentially be conservative outlook for 2026 if trends currently stay. I was going to save this for a follow-up question, but because you touched on it, I'm going to hop in here, if you don't mind. Kind of with that AI theme and improved efficiency, by my math in 1Q, you purchased roughly 7,200 invoices per FTE in Factoring, which was a massive increase from the 5,600 in the prior year, underscoring that narrative. I know AI can be a moving target given its rapid improvement, but by your estimation, what inning are we in for the use of AI and automation for improving fraud detection and providing analytics to some of your payments clients?
Yeah, we have a lot on our roadmap right now to improve automation through AI and large language models. I think we're just in the beginning innings, to be honest, operationally. I think you're going to see an improvement, with volume of invoices versus our full-time headcount.
Within the Payments business, our application of AI is actually aimed more at delivering a better client experience. As we use AI to improve our audit product, for example, that means that we're having to refer fewer invoices back to the brokers for adjudication. We're handling them ourselves. That's real value for the client. It's not just creating cost efficiencies. There are other opportunities for us to apply AI for the purpose of cost efficiencies, but right now our focus is primarily on a better client experience.
Well, I appreciate it, and I will hop back in the queue.
Your next question will come from Matt Olney with Stephens.
Hey, thanks. Good morning. We talked in the past about the invoice pricing, how the exposure had predominantly been on the spot rates, but also now has some exposure to the contract market. Aaron, as you said, the contract market could lag the spot market. Just remind us of the exposure of the company within Factoring and Payments and how much currently is spot versus contract and how that could change.
Yeah. It's difficult to put an actual number on the amount of contract. We see a higher average invoice price on the factoring portfolio because of the diverse commodities that our carriers are hauling and the different size that we see. I know we've said in the past, we have about 30% of our portfolio that's directly to shipper. You see more contract and dedicated lanes through that. That's probably the closest I can give you as far as a potential contract and dedicated lane number.
Okay. That's helpful. I know it seems like we're a lot more focused on the transportation growth on this call, but it looks like the challenge in the first quarter was within that Banking segment that's still half the company revenue. I think Todd addressed the question around the loan yields. It sounds like the bank loan balances will be down this year. Help us think about the drag that we could see on banking revenue in 2026.
If I just look at year-over-year 1Q 2026 versus 1Q 2025, it looked like core banking revenue was down 12%. Is that level of drag likely to continue throughout the year?
You want to take that, Brad, or do you want?
Sure. Yeah, Matt, I don't think that you're going to see a lot of degradation from here. I think our intent is to hold things flat. I would remind you, though, that we are a bit asset-sensitive, so as rates have declined in the overall economy, that would account for a good portion of what you saw relative to the first quarter of last year. In addition to things like our ABL and liquid credit portfolios running to a smaller level, which you'll likely continue over the course of this year. Our mandate to those teams is to keep it in the fairway, keep credit quality clean, and keep the balance sheet pretty stable.
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Thank you, Matt.
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, feel free to use the Raise Hand feature, which can be found at the black bar at the bottom of your screen. Our next question will come from Eric Bedell with Bloomberg Intelligence.
Hey, good morning. Can you hear me?
Morning.
Thanks for taking my question. I'm curious a bit on the Factoring invoice purchase volume. What should we expect in terms of how much you're going to pick up over the next few quarters? I know we touched on it a bit, but just curious to see if we're going to see similar levels to 2Q 2025.
Yeah. In Q1, you'll normally see a seasonality drop, although because we saw some additional client count in the first quarter, we only dropped by about a little over 3%. I think quarter-over-quarter, you'll see that increase, especially when we see such a solid pipeline coming in.
Yeah. We've answered this, Eric, in the past. It's not a perfect comparison because what you have is client growth, right? When we start growing clients, which we're now doing, you can't compare period-to-period factoring numbers and say, "Well, that's what the industry did." That's why we encourage you in the letter to look at what the Payments business spoke to, although frankly, it's growing as well. You have to interpret our organic growth. The three things we've always thought about, number one, client growth, which we've talked about. We're growing. The pipeline is really interesting. Number two is utilization per carrier, which Kim can speak to. That's going to be tied to seasonal factors like, what percentage utilization are they at? Then number three, what's the average invoice price?
I would just point out that Triumph Factoring's average invoice price at over $2,000 currently is materially higher than probably what you're going to see with any other Factoring business. If you want to see where the average invoice price for all freight, which I don't know that the average tells you a lot because there's such a variability, but you should look at our payments numbers, which is going to be more like $1,200 or $1,300. That's because a significant portion of our Factoring portfolio is with larger carriers who are doing things for shippers that generate either longer length of haul or a different type of freight.
I think that there are directional signals for what you're looking for in our Factoring business and in our Payments business, but don't overlook the fact that we're organically growing it, and so it never gives you a perfect period-over-period comparison.
That's helpful. Thanks. I was wondering if we could just shift to the Payment side. Appreciate seeing the revenue per invoice and the increases there. Is there a target level that you have for dollars per invoice into the end of the year?
We don't have an aggregate target for dollars per invoice. We've shared in the past that our price on a per customer basis should be $1.25 for the core payment service, and then audit on top of that generally adds about $1 per invoice. You could put those together and say $2.25 would be the target on a customer level. We won't achieve that for the entire portfolio, but that would be an aspiration for every client.
Just with the repricings on those, how long does that take to come through? Should we expect that on a 12-month basis?
The pricing ramps for clients that are beginning to pay us now are generally about a three to four quarter ramp period. What you'll see in the second quarter is a lot of brokers that began paying us just a little bit on January 1st are now going to be paying us significantly more, and we're bringing a whole new slug of clients on board to begin paying us. Those two things will have a nice additive effect to our overall pricing.
I would just say, Eric, on that, the migration from where the payments network was to where the payments network is today. I think over the last four or five years, we've had a lot of investors ask about why aren't you pricing faster? Our belief, and we wrote it in a letter, and our belief for the whole world to see, our customers to see, is value-based pricing. We want to make sure we are delivering more value than we are asking for our customer because that's the only way to make this sustainable. We've given you in the letter the pricing ramps that are coming. That's only because they're tied to value ramps that came before.
We take that very, very seriously. Just know that I'm sure others could go faster in pushing pricing, but Triumph's focus is can we go to our customers and show them the value of the network, not just audit and payment in isolation, but the value of the network, which is becoming more real every day. I think there's a lot of exciting things to come from the value it creates and distributes back to not just the people making the payments, but the people receiving the payments. That's what we try to do with networks.
That's helpful. Thanks. I just had one last one on the LoadPay account growth. What are you doing to kind of convert those new accounts into the active accounts, and what's that relationship like? Is there any churn yet? Just curious to hear some more color.
Yeah, we're really excite`d about the growth that we saw in the first quarter, right? It shows the amount of demand that's out there. One of the features at Triumph is our ability to have wide distribution to the carrier network from the work that we've done historically within Factoring across our Payments business. As Aaron just mentioned, right, we're about creating additional value in some of the feature sets that we enriched in the first quarter. It started to show with an uptick in the number of active accounts. We'll have another set of material upgrades in the second quarter, and we'll see that level of active accounts grow. What we're already seeing is more and more of a carrier's total workflow is now being done within the LoadPay application.
Someone who had logged in on December 1st versus logging in on April 1st is getting a much richer experience in order to successfully run their business and be a profitable carrier.
Great, thank you. I'll step back in.
As a reminder, you may use the Raise Hand feature if you'd like to ask a question or another follow-up. We'll return to Joe Yanchunis with Raymond James.
Hey, thanks for bringing me back on here. I was hoping we could talk a little more about expenses. How much of the 2Q $97 million guide is fixed versus variable? How much should professional fees and salaries trend from here? If you could provide some more color on your tech spend over the past couple years and when we could expect to see that start to moderate, which would materially impact your operating leverage going forward. I'm just trying to ask, so what needs to happen for you to get your quarterly expenses back to, say, the $80 million range?
Well, I think $80 million a quarter is very aspirational given our growth plans in our transportation businesses. That's not what we're trying to do. We're trying to keep our expenses really from growing in a material way. We're happy to do things like pay commissions and bonuses when we're able to grow our business. But the tech spend that we've had over the last few years, specifically to that question, most of what we need is in place. You shouldn't see a huge amount of growth there. We're always looking for ways to become more efficient. We're looking for ways to become more efficient in our Operating businesses as well. If you look over the next couple of years, what I would expect is the corporate expenses, the fixed overhead type of expenses, to grow with inflation at the most, and hopefully decline a little bit.
In our Operating businesses, you should see our expenses grow materially slower than revenue, and that's what we're trying to do.
Yeah. Joe, I appreciate the question, but I don't think it's conceivable for us to grow transportation revenue 15% or 20% out into the future and cut expenses 20% at the same time. I think we've pulled $30 million of expense out of the business. There's churn underneath that. There's probably more expense coming out. We told you we'd finish at $96.5 million. I just return to the North Star metrics because I get it. There are investors who look at us that come at it from a bank lens. Some of them come at it from a payments lens. Some of them come at it from a fintech lens. That's why we wrote the metrics the way they are. Number one, revenue growth over 20%.
We've already told you, I don't call it a North Star metric, but we've already told you that we're going to hold expenses relatively flat. If you get 20% transportation revenue growth, the bank stays flat and expenses stay flat, you're creating operating leverage. Number two, inside of that revenue, we're telling you that the operating margin in our Factoring business is going to exit the year around 40% operating margin, which is materially higher than any sort of commercial finance business that I'm aware of. We're telling you that the EBITDA margin in our payments network is growing towards 50%. Where do we finish this year? I don't know. I think we're progressing towards 40%. Then we're telling you that the intelligence gross margin, which already lives where it lives, will stay there while we're growing revenue materially.
If investors are looking for us, I just want to be frank. If your investors are looking for us to reduce quarterly expenses to $80 million, you're looking in the wrong place. What we're telling you is we're going to grow transportation revenue 20% off the expense base we largely have in place now. Doing so, going back to the opening of what we wrote in the letter and what Gary asked about, if I told you we're exiting last year at roughly $1 of earnings run rate, right, in Q4, which is generally one of our better quarters from where the market is, and then we come into Q1 and we stayed at roughly $1 a share, right? You can make whatever adjustments you want to make. It means we grew through the seasonality we should have expected.
I want to emphasize this, like normally we would see a 7%-9% fall-off in transportation revenue. We stayed flat, which I think is a material win from Q4 to Q1. If you go and repeat what we did last year and we hit those margin targets we're giving you're going to double earnings, right? If you just use one and we told you we would add $1 and maybe we do worse than that, maybe we do better, but we're trying to call our shot there. I just need everyone to understand, because I don't want to disappoint anyone, and I want to be truthful with everyone, cutting it back to $80 million a quarter is not the play, the play is holding it where it is and growing revenue from here.
Well, that was crystal clear. A couple more from me here. Shifting over to your Intelligence product, how would you characterize current demand for that offering? Similar to your Payments division, do you expect you'll try to build density before increasing pricing?
Yeah, in the Intelligence business, the demand is strong. We've actually, in the past two quarters, we've brought on about 50 net new logos, right? So demand is very strong. The top of the funnel pipeline is very strong. Deals are taking a little bit longer to materialize in the P&L just because of, to Aaron's point, showing customer value through proofs of concept. It's been a year, right? It's been a year since Triumph acquired Greenscreens and Isometric to form Intelligence. We have now integrated three teams, two products, and the data of the Triumph network, and Triumph made that acquisition to really monetize the data. We are now there, and working through the market, voice of the customer to find the best fit products for each segment of the market. Again, pipeline is strong. Net new bookings have been really strong for the past two consecutive quarters.
We're really happy with where we are right now.
Appreciate that. Then last one from me here. How quickly will you be able to wind down your ABL and liquid credit portfolios? Assuming they're all completely gone, what impact would that have on your provision?
Yeah. In response to your question about how long it will take, we will have the ABL credits that we're exiting off the books probably within the next two to three quarters. We may choose to keep one on through the next renewal, which could take a bit longer, but you're going to see that by and large wound down by the end of this year. I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question?
Yeah, the impact of this provision from
Oh, yeah.
Reducing balances here. I would think that the provision could kind of grind lower. Is that accurate?
Yes. The way the math works, provision will grind lower.
Yeah. Joe, I think that you could anticipate, looking at the provision on those two lines of business, just as a percentage of loan balances, it's going to be higher than our overall average.
All right. Well, that was very helpful. Thank you for taking my questions.
For sure.
There are no more raised hands at this time. I'd now like to turn the call over to management for closing remarks.
Thank you all for joining us. Have a great day.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-14Synchrony (SYF) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
Zacks
Synchrony (SYF) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
Synchrony (SYF) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on April 21. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise. This consumer credit company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.26 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +19.6%. Revenues are expected to be $4.67 billion, up 4.6% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.65% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction). The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive po...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-09Triumph Announces Schedule for First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Business Wire
Triumph Announces Schedule for First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
DALLAS, April 08, 2026--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Triumph Financial, Inc. (NYSE: TFIN) today announced that it expects to release its first quarter financial results and management commentary after the market closes on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Upon filing, the financial results and commentary will be available on the Company’s IR website at ir.triumph.io. Aaron P. Graft, Vice Chairman and CEO, and Brad Voss, CFO, will review the financial results in a conference call with investors and analysts beginning at 9:30 a.m. central time on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. The live video conference may be accessed directly through this link, https://triumph-financial-q1-2026-earnings.open-exchange.net/ or via the Company's IR website at ir.triumph.io through the Financial Results link. An archive of this video conference will subsequently be available at the same location, referenced above, on the Company’s website. About Triumph Triumph (NYSE: TFIN) is a transportation-focused financial and technology company that delivers payments, factoring, banking, and intelligence solutions designed to simplify and modernize freight transactions for brokers, carriers, shippers and factors. The company develops technology and financial products that improve operational efficiency, increase transparency and security in transactions, and expand access to working capital across the transportation industry. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, Triumph’s portfolio includes Triumph, LoadPay and TBK Bank. Learn more at triumph.io. Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Investors are cautioned that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially. Triumph Financial’s expected financial results or other plans are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of such risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see "Risk Factors" and the forward-looking statement disclosure contained in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 11, 2026. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date made and Triumph Financial undertakes no duty to update the information. View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.busine...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-08Triumph Financial (TFIN) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
Zacks
Triumph Financial (TFIN) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
The market expects Triumph Financial (TFIN) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise. This financial holding company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.13 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +225%. Revenues are expected to be $106.79 million, up 5.1% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 3.8% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ES...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-03-31Triumph Financial (TFIN): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q4 Earnings?
StockStory
Triumph Financial (TFIN): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q4 Earnings?
Even during a down period for the markets, Triumph Financial has gone against the grain, climbing to $55.68. Its shares have yielded a 11.3% return over the last six months, beating the S&P 500 by 14.4%. This run-up might have investors contemplating their next move. Is now the time to buy Triumph Financial, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free. We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons we avoid TFIN and a stock we'd rather own. Our experience and research show the market cares primarily about a bank’s net interest income growth as one-time fees are considered a lower-quality and non-recurring revenue source. Triumph Financial’s net interest income has grown at a 5.3% annualized rate over the last five years, much worse than the broader banking industry and in line with its total revenue. Its growth was driven by an increase in its net interest margin, which represents how much a bank earns in relation to its outstanding loans, as its loan book shrank throughout that period. Net interest margin (NIM) represents how much a bank earns in relation to its outstanding loans. It's one of the most important metrics to track because it shows how a bank's loans are performing and whether it has the ability to command higher premiums for its services. Over the past two years, Triumph Financial’s net interest margin averaged 6.7%. However, its margin contracted from 7.7% to 6.4% over that period. This decline was a headwind for its net interest income. While prevailing rates are a major determinant of net interest margin changes over time, the decline could mean Triumph Financial either faced competition for loans and deposits or experienced a negative mix shift in its balance sheet composition. We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) because it highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable. Sadly for Triumph Financial, its EPS declined by 19.1% annually over the last five years while its revenue grew by 5.9%. This tells us the company became less profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded. Triumph Financial doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares topping the market in recent months, the stock trades at 1.5× forward P/B (or $55.68 per share). This mu...

