B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
+13.5% vs current
TFIN
Triumph FinancialCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
At close
2026-07-22
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$81.00
-0.1% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$67.00
-17.4% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-22
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+25.5
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+25.5
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+45.0
Score
AI commentary
News tone is moderately positive after the Q2 release, but the initial price anchor remained $79.19 on July 21, suggesting a muted immediate reaction. Social, options, short-interest and employee-sentiment data are unavailable in the packet; missing analyst revisions should not be treated as positive evidence.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-22
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-21eventQ2 earnings showed sequential operating improvementMedium impact
Triumph reported $10.6 million of net income available to common stockholders and $0.44 diluted EPS for Q2; management said non-core items reduced EPS by approximately $0.13. Transportation revenue growth reached 30.9%, while factoring margin improved to 39.4%. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
2026-08-11catalystFreight pricing may support factoring earningsMedium impact
Average transportation invoice size rose to $2,160 in Q2, with July averaging $2,210 through the first 17 days. Management estimates each $100 move in invoice prices changes annual pretax income by roughly $7 million, but July demand is seasonally softer and the benefit is market-sensitive. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
2026-12-31catalystLoadPay and Intelligence monetizationHigh impact
LoadPay revenue grew 29.4% year over year on an annualized basis, with EBITDA margin improving to 25.7%; management expects further margin expansion. Intelligence launched RFP Manager and Capacity Intelligence, but the segment remains uneven, with Q2 revenue flat sequentially and gross margin near 85%. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-22 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology