TBLA

Taboola.comA

Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$5.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$3.80

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$2.40

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-10-11

AI commentary

The company release supports a positive ex-TAC gross-profit and adjusted EBITDA trend, tempered by slower revenue growth and weaker cash flow. Recent law-firm notices add negative headline noise without establishing liability. The stored earnings-document row concerns TD SYNNEX, not TBLA, and was excluded. A verified post-release price reaction and subsequent analyst revisions are unavailable. Social, options, short-interest, and employee metrics are unavailable; zero fields are placeholders, not neutral readings.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-11

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-11-30eventQ3 results test raised full-year outlookHigh impact

Taboola guided Q3 revenue to $460 million–$473 million, ex-TAC gross profit to $184 million–$190 million, and adjusted EBITDA to $51.5 million–$56.5 million after raising its full-year ex-TAC gross profit and adjusted EBITDA outlook. Delivery against those ranges is the clearest near-term test. The expected date is an estimate, not an announced reporting date. [#8-K-2026-08-05] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]

2026-11-30catalystCash-flow conversion testMedium impact

Q2 operating cash flow fell to $31.3 million from $47.4 million a year earlier, and free cash flow fell to $17.3 million from $34.2 million, despite higher adjusted EBITDA. The next results may show whether that divergence persists; recovery is not assumed. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]

2027-06-30catalystRealize and publisher-win monetizationHigh impact

Management cited Realize momentum and the addition of Fox News. Sustained ex-TAC gross-profit growth could support the thesis, but the release does not quantify the incremental economics of those initiatives. The date is a monitoring horizon, not a company milestone. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-10-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology