TBLA

Taboola.comA

Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$6.00

+23.5% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$5.00

+2.9% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$3.80

-21.8% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-29

AI commentary

Primary-source evidence is constructive after the May 6 Q1 release, and recent news coverage also framed the print as a beat, but the packet does not include fresh analyst revisions and the only target summary sits at the current anchor price. That keeps this in a cautious monitoring posture: positive tone, but the next valuation step still depends on Q2 follow-through and cleaner margin conversion.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-08-06catalystQ1 beat and FY2026 raise support near-term momentumMedium impact

Taboola reported Q1 2026 revenue of $466.4 million (+9.1%), ex-TAC gross profit of $168.1 million (+10.8%), and free cash flow of $90.3 million, while raising FY2026 revenue guidance to $2.006 billion-$2.062 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $222 million-$240 million. That supports near-term momentum, but the next checkpoint is whether Q2 holds the improved run-rate. [#8-K-2026-05-06]

2026-12-31eventAggressive share repurchases can keep per-share support in placeMedium impact

Management said it remains focused on returning capital through an aggressive share repurchase program, which can help per-share economics if free cash flow stays strong, but the support is discretionary and depends on market, economic, and legal conditions. [#8-K-2026-05-06]

2026-12-31catalystRealize-led growth still needs cleaner EBITDA conversionHigh impact

The Q1 release says advertiser success on Realize is driving the growth story, but adjusted EBITDA still fell 25.7% year over year even as revenue and free cash flow improved, so a rerating likely requires sustained growth plus better margin conversion through the rest of 2026. [#8-K-2026-05-06]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology