B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
+20.1% vs current
STNE
StoneCoDNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
-6.6% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
-37.7% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-17
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+18.4
Positive
Company
+23.6
Positive
Macro
+18.7
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+38.0
Score
AI commentary
The immediate market read was not a durable positive reaction: checked pricing showed STNE opened May 15 at $9.97, traded as high as $10.30, but finished near the $9.61 anchor. Available T+3 analyst evidence is thin but cautious, with BTIG lowering its target and Citi reportedly moving to Neutral. Social evidence was not provided in the packet, so this remains a low-conviction monitoring view driven mainly by the 1Q26 primary filing and limited delayed sell-side digestion.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-17
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-14event1Q26 earnings kept growth intact but shifted focus to credit qualityHigh impact
Stone reported 1Q26 total revenue and income up 6.5% y/y to R$3.578 billion and adjusted basic EPS up 15.4% y/y to R$2.19, helped by credit growth and buybacks, but adjusted gross profit was flat y/y, provisions rose 51.6% q/q, cost of risk reached 21.9%, and NPL >90 days rose to 6.98%; the next debate is whether credit scaling can continue without further reserve pressure or churn-driven TPV weakness [#6K-1Q26-EX99.1].
2026-05-15catalystPost-earnings analyst reset is cautious, not thesis-changing yetHigh impact
Available post-print coverage shows BTIG cut its STNE target to $15 from $22 while keeping Buy, citing weak results and credit issues, and Fintel reported Citi downgraded STNE from Buy to Neutral on May 15; this supports a cautious revision signal, but the evidence is still limited and should not be treated as a broad analyst capitulation.
2026-12-31catalystCapital return and guidance leave upside only if operating quality stabilizesHigh impact
Stone paid a one-time extraordinary dividend of US$2.53 per share tied to Linx-sale proceeds, and its IR guidance page still shows 2026 guidance of R$6.6-7.0 billion adjusted gross profit and R$10.8-11.4 adjusted basic EPS; that can support per-share upside if TPV, churn, and credit losses stabilize, but the 1Q26 release makes the path more execution-sensitive [#6K-1Q26-EX99.1][#IR-GUIDANCE-2026].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology