B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
STNE
StoneCoCNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-17
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+27.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+27.1
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+59.2
Score
AI commentary
The immediate market read was not a durable positive reaction: checked pricing showed STNE opened May 15 at $9.97, traded as high as $10.30, but finished near the $9.61 anchor. Available T+3 analyst evidence is thin but cautious, with BTIG lowering its target and Citi reportedly moving to Neutral. Social evidence was not provided in the packet, so this remains a low-conviction monitoring view driven mainly by the 1Q26 primary filing and limited delayed sell-side digestion.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-17
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-14event1Q26 earnings kept growth intact but shifted focus to credit qualityHigh impact
Stone reported 1Q26 total revenue and income up 6.5% y/y to R$3.578 billion and adjusted basic EPS up 15.4% y/y to R$2.19, helped by credit growth and buybacks, but adjusted gross profit was flat y/y, provisions rose 51.6% q/q, cost of risk reached 21.9%, and NPL >90 days rose to 6.98%; the next debate is whether credit scaling can continue without further reserve pressure or churn-driven TPV weakness [#6K-1Q26-EX99.1].
2026-05-15catalystPost-earnings analyst reset is cautious, not thesis-changing yetHigh impact
Available post-print coverage shows BTIG cut its STNE target to $15 from $22 while keeping Buy, citing weak results and credit issues, and Fintel reported Citi downgraded STNE from Buy to Neutral on May 15; this supports a cautious revision signal, but the evidence is still limited and should not be treated as a broad analyst capitulation.
2026-12-31catalystCapital return and guidance leave upside only if operating quality stabilizesHigh impact
Stone paid a one-time extraordinary dividend of US$2.53 per share tied to Linx-sale proceeds, and its IR guidance page still shows 2026 guidance of R$6.6-7.0 billion adjusted gross profit and R$10.8-11.4 adjusted basic EPS; that can support per-share upside if TPV, churn, and credit losses stabilize, but the 1Q26 release makes the path more execution-sensitive [#6K-1Q26-EX99.1][#IR-GUIDANCE-2026].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology