B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
STNE
StoneCoCNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Stone is still growing revenue, deposits, and credit, has already returned capital through the extraordinary dividend, and the checked sell-side target stack remains above the current share price even after at least one post-print target cut.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.3.
What can break
Brazilian tax pressure is set to increase: company risk-factor disclosure notes a higher CSLL rate for payment institutions after the approval of PL No. 128 in late 2025 [#IR-RISK-FACTORS-2026].
Momentum
14
Value
62
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.50 · Bull $13.50 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-05-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.96
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d -1.2
Value62 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +9.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Brazilian tax pressure is set to increase: company risk-factor disclosure notes a higher CSLL rate for payment institutions after the approval of PL No. 128 in late 2025 [#IR-RISK-FACTORS-2026].
- • Credit losses are rising faster than revenue, with 1Q26 provisions up 51.6% q/q and NPL >90 days at 6.98% [#6K-1Q26-EX99.1].
- • The bear case is that 1Q26 exposed weaker TPV growth, elevated churn, higher provisions, and worsening delinquency, so analyst targets and estimates may keep moving lower until credit quality and payment volumes stabilize.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-14
1Q26 earnings kept growth intact but shifted focus to credit quality
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
+0.0
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.3
Δ21d
-6.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 13.6 / Value 62.4 / Sentiment 60.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.25B
Beta
1.82
Shares Out
243.23M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
6.0
P/S (TTM)
1.58
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
11.30
Rev YoY
-14.1%
EPS YoY
-6.3%
Gross Margin
-32.8%
Op Margin
-130.1%
Net Debt
$2.12B
Current Ratio
1.26
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data