B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
+77.8% vs current
SOPH
SOPHiA GENETICSANasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-03
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$6.80
+42.3% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
-12.1% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-26.5
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-26.5
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+84.3
Score
AI commentary
This T+3 follow-up moved the name from unsupported to evidence-backed, but not to high conviction. Primary company materials confirmed a solid Q1 and reiterated outlook, while third-party post-print coverage still framed the reaction as cautious because EPS/loss quality and second-half dependence remain unresolved. We found limited broad analyst-revision evidence beyond a BTIG reiteration, so the clean read is still monitoring-style rather than a strong re-rating call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-01eventJuly 1 CEO handoff is a real execution checkpoint for a still-unproven scale storyHigh impact
Ross Muken is scheduled to become CEO on July 1, 2026, with founder Jurgi Camblong transitioning to Executive Chairman subject to the June AGM; because SOPHiA is still balancing growth, margin improvement, and commercialization ramp, the leadership handoff could materially affect investor confidence in go-to-market execution and capital discipline [#PR-2026-01-12].
2026-09-30catalystQ1 beat plus reaffirmed 2026 guide now has to convert into back-half revenue rampHigh impact
Q1 revenue rose 22% to $21.7 million, net dollar retention reached 117%, and management reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $92 million-$94 million while saying 18 new core genomic customers signed in Q1 should begin generating revenue over the next twelve months; the near-term test is whether those wins and prior large U.S. health-system signings translate into the expected second-half ramp rather than staying stuck in implementation [#6K-2026-05-05] [#6K-2026-03-03].
2026-12-31catalystLiquid biopsy, solid tumor, and BioPharma ramps still offer upside if implementations keep convertingHigh impact
SOPHiA exited 2025 with over 70 liquid-biopsy customers signed and 21 solid-tumor customers signed, then said in Q1 2026 it had reached 100 customers across 30-plus countries signed to adopt liquid-biopsy or solid-tumor applications while liquid-biopsy analyses grew more than 100% year over year; that creates a credible multi-quarter activation tail, but the value still depends on implementation speed and routine-usage conversion [#6K-2026-03-03] [#6K-2026-05-05].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology