B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SOPH
SOPHiA GENETICSFNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull read is that Q1 showed real commercial traction: 22% revenue growth, 117% net dollar retention, record platform usage, 28% U.S. analysis-volume growth, and maintained 20%-22% full-year revenue guidance all support the argument that 2025 signings are starting to convert [#6K-2026-05-05].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.8.
What can break
FX and international operating exposure can pressure reported results even if underlying demand stays healthy, a risk management discussed on the earnings call transcript.
Momentum
38
Value
36
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.80 · Bull $8.50 · Bear $4.20Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.75
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d -13.5
Value36 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment41 · Δ7d -8.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FX and international operating exposure can pressure reported results even if underlying demand stays healthy, a risk management discussed on the earnings call transcript.
- • Guidance is still back-half weighted, so any implementation slippage at recently signed customers or large U.S. systems could disrupt the 2026 ramp [#6K-2026-03-03] [#6K-2026-05-05].
- • The bear read is that SOPHiA still needs a second-half weighted implementation story to work almost perfectly while remaining loss-making; the market appears to want cleaner proof that signed customers, liquid-biopsy demand, and U.S.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-01
July 1 CEO handoff is a real execution checkpoint for a still-unproven scale story
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
38
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-13.5
Δ21d
-44.0
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
41
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.8
Δ21d
+4.2
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 37.8 / Value 36.3 / Sentiment 41.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$6.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$625.69M
Beta
1.11
Shares Out
85.13M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.3
P/S (TTM)
4.26
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-11.29
Rev YoY
+27.2%
EPS YoY
-9.0%
Gross Margin
+66.6%
Op Margin
-84.3%
Net Debt
-$7.27M
Current Ratio
2.69
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data