B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$78.00
+9.9% vs current
SMG
Scotts Miracle-GroANYSE / Materials
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
-1.4% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
-23.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-15
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+18.3
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+18.9
Positive
Pulse
-45.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+41.9
Score
AI commentary
Tone is moderately positive based on the April results and June guidance reaffirmation, but the July news flow is thin and mainly promotional/personnel-oriented. No current analyst revision or post-print target-change evidence is available, so the thesis remains cautiously bullish and monitoring-oriented.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-15
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-04eventInvestor Day is the next dated proof pointMedium impact
The company scheduled Investor Day for August 4, 2026, when management plans to discuss mid- to long-term strategic priorities and financial goals following its fiscal 2026 guidance reaffirmation [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-06-03].
2026-08-04catalystPeak-season conversion remains the near-term testMedium impact
June commentary cited approximately 1% year-to-date branded consumer POS growth, retailer replenishment improvement, and roughly 90% of fiscal 2026 commodities locked, supporting reaffirmed guidance; seasonal weather and execution remain risks [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-06-03].
2026-12-31catalystMargin and leverage progress could support capital returnsHigh impact
Second-quarter net sales rose 5%, gross margin improved by more than 200 basis points, adjusted EBITDA increased 9%, and net leverage declined to 3.71x from 4.41x. Delivery of approximately $275 million of fiscal 2026 free cash flow could support leverage improvement and a year-end share repurchase program [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-06-03].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-15 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology