B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$78.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SMG
Scotts Miracle-GroBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q3 print improved the forward setup: adjusted EPS increased 8%, full-year EPS guidance was raised, and net leverage improved to 3.78x. Continued branded-product growth, innovation, and cost execution could support further earnings and valuation recovery.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.6.
What can break
GAAP net income from continuing operations declined 34% because of impairment, restructuring, and other non-recurring items [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Momentum
17
Value
61
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $70.00 · Bull $78.00 · Bear $56.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $76.60
Why
Momentum17 · Δ7d +6.4
Value61 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment78 · Δ7d +10.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • GAAP net income from continuing operations declined 34% because of impairment, restructuring, and other non-recurring items [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
- • Higher freight and commodity costs reduced Q3 gross margin by 90-100 basis points [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
- • The quarter was not clean: sales grew only 1%, adjusted gross margin declined 100 basis points, GAAP EPS fell 34% because of non-recurring items, and stored earnings context flags elevated retailer inventories.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Investor Day is the next dated proof point
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
17
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.4
Δ21d
+1.4
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.6
Δ21d
+8.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 16.9 / Value 61.1 / Sentiment 78.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.45B
Beta
1.96
Shares Out
58.22M
P/E (TTM)
25.1
P/S (TTM)
1.02
P/FCF (TTM)
29.25
Rev YoY
+1.1%
EPS YoY
-25.5%
Gross Margin
+32.3%
Op Margin
+15.0%
Net Debt
$2.34B
Current Ratio
1.21
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data