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SMG

Scotts Miracle-GroC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The July quarter delivered adjusted EPS of $2.82 versus the $2.53 Zacks consensus reported in the stored article, and management raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. September debt redemption and initial repurchases add evidence of capital-allocation execution [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] [#8-K-2026-09-15].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
What can break
Debt reduction takes priority over future repurchases; the company says their timing and scale depend on market conditions and other factors [#8-K-2026-09-15]. Company release
Momentum
33
Value
59
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $52.00 · Bull $63.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $71.40
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d +3.6
Value59 · Δ7d -1.5
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -8.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Debt reduction takes priority over future repurchases; the company says their timing and scale depend on market conditions and other factors [#8-K-2026-09-15]. Company release
  • • Fiscal 2027–2029 growth and margin goals require sustained consumer demand and operational execution; they are not guaranteed outcomes. Company Investor Day release
  • • Third-quarter adjusted gross margin fell 100 basis points amid freight and commodity costs, while U.S.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-31

Proposed Black Kow acquisition

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
33
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+14.9
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-2.8
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.0
Δ21d
-27.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 33.3 / Value 59.0 / Sentiment 48.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.45B
Beta
1.96
Shares Out
58.22M
P/E (TTM)
25.1
P/S (TTM)
1.02
P/FCF (TTM)
29.25
Rev YoY
+1.1%
EPS YoY
-25.5%
Gross Margin
+32.3%
Op Margin
+15.0%
Net Debt
$2.34B
Current Ratio
1.21
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data