B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SM
SM EnergyANYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$39.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-09-03
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+38.2
Positive
Company
+2.0
Mixed
Macro
+38.4
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+22.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+66.8
Score
AI commentary
Primary-company earnings disclosure was constructive on production, synergies, free cash flow, debt reduction, and capital returns. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] Secondary-news coverage is sparse, while post-release price reaction and analyst revision data are unavailable; missing revision data is not positive evidence. The deterministic prior is neutral with moderate uncertainty, supporting cautious monitoring rather than an aggressive upgrade.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-03
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-09-21eventQuarterly dividend paymentMedium impact
The board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.22 per share, payable September 21, 2026, supporting continued shareholder returns. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-24]
2026-11-15eventExecution against raised second-half production outlookHigh impact
SM reported approximately 440 MBoe/d of Q2 production and raised second-half 2026 production guidance to 435–440 MBoe/d while maintaining full-year capital guidance of $2.65–$2.85 billion. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
2026-11-15catalystCommodity-price and hedge volatilityHigh impact
SM disclosed an anticipated Q2 net derivative settlement loss of approximately $220 million and gas realization of $0.17/Mcf before derivatives, leaving earnings and cash flow exposed to commodity and hedge volatility. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-09-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology