SJM

J.M SmuckerB

NYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

20%

Probability

Target price

$145.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$126.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

35%

Probability

Target price

$102.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-09-11

AI commentary

Primary-source tone improved after the August results and raised outlook, but the deterministic directional prior is negative and the market appears to be discounting some of the headline strength: the $121.07 September 10 anchor is well below the roughly $131-$132 prices recorded in late-August Form 4 transactions. Recent coverage is mixed, emphasizing both improving coffee trends and pressure on impulse snack demand. No sufficient social dataset, options-skew measure, short-interest figure, or reliable post-print analyst-revision set was supplied, so sentiment remains a monitoring input rather than positive evidence.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-11

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Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-11-30eventRaised fiscal 2027 outlook faces its next quarterly durability testMedium impact

First-quarter sales increased 5% and adjusted EPS increased 71%, prompting management to improve fiscal 2027 guidance to a 1%-2% sales decline, adjusted EPS of $10.50-$11.00, and approximately $1.1 billion of free cash flow. The estimated late-November reporting window should test whether these targets remain achievable after separating recurring performance from tariff-refund benefits. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-26]

2026-11-30catalystCoffee pricing resilience could offset cautious volume assumptionsMedium impact

U.S. Retail Coffee sales increased 13%, including 10 percentage points from pricing and 2 points from volume/mix. Management nevertheless retained a prudent low-single-digit full-year coffee-volume decline assumption because of commodity volatility, category dynamics, and the consumer environment; sustained branded volume would improve the earnings mix. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-26] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-27]

2027-04-30catalystUncrustables growth and McCalla investment offer a volume-led margin bridgeHigh impact

Frozen Handheld and Spreads delivered 3% sales growth and a 240-basis-point segment-margin increase, with Uncrustables supporting volume/mix. Management is reinvesting part of the tariff-refund benefit in marketing and preproduction costs for the McCalla facility, creating a potential capacity and unit-economics lever if demand execution remains sound. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-26] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-27]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology