B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SJM
J.M SmuckerBNYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The first quarter exceeded management's sales and adjusted-EPS expectations, generated $337.3 million of free cash flow, and supported higher full-year sales, EPS, and cash-flow guidance. Coffee and Uncrustables volume/mix were positive, while lower debt also reduced interest expense.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
Coffee commodity volatility could require additional pricing or pressure volume despite strong first-quarter results and management's cautious low-single-digit volume assumption. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-27]
Momentum
82
Value
58
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $126.00 · Bull $145.00 · Bear $102.00Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $144.57
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d 0.0
Value58 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -1.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Coffee commodity volatility could require additional pricing or pressure volume despite strong first-quarter results and management's cautious low-single-digit volume assumption. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-27]
- • Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS includes a net tariff-refund benefit of approximately $0.60; reversal, new tariffs, or weaker underlying margins could reduce earnings quality. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-26]
- • Adjusted EPS included an $0.84 tariff-refund benefit, and the full-year outlook incorporates a net benefit of approximately $0.60 after reinvestment.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
Raised fiscal 2027 outlook faces its next quarterly durability test
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+3.4
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-18.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 81.9 / Value 57.9 / Sentiment 48.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$126.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$102.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$13.88B
Beta
0.22
Shares Out
106.82M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-100.0
P/S (TTM)
1.15
P/FCF (TTM)
57.52
Rev YoY
+5.8%
EPS YoY
-153.0%
Gross Margin
+33.2%
Op Margin
+16.8%
Net Debt
$7.07B
Current Ratio
0.78
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data