B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SJM
J.M SmuckerANYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The earnings beat, raised FY27 outlook, stronger free cash flow, and positive coffee/Uncrustables trends support the view that portfolio execution and cash generation are improving. A stored August 27 MT Newswires item also said UBS expected stronger FY27 earnings growth as coffee trends improve.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.8.
What can break
Coffee commodity volatility, consumer weakness, and declines in sweet baked goods and peanut butter could pressure volume and mix.
Momentum
83
Value
59
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $143.00 · Bull $150.00 · Bear $118.00Analysis 2026-08-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $142.73
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +2.7
Value59 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment79 · Δ7d +13.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Coffee commodity volatility, consumer weakness, and declines in sweet baked goods and peanut butter could pressure volume and mix.
- • FY27 net sales guidance still implies a 1%-2% decline, with full-year coffee volume expected to decrease by low single digits.
- • The headline EPS improvement is partly nonrecurring, FY27 sales are still expected to decline, coffee volume is guided lower for the year, and weakness in sweet baked goods and peanut butter leaves execution risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-26
Q1 FY27 beat and raised outlook reset the near-term setup
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
83
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+14.7
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+2.0
Sentiment
79
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.8
Δ21d
+15.3
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 83.1 / Value 59.4 / Sentiment 78.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$143.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$12.59B
Beta
0.22
Shares Out
106.88M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-90.6
P/S (TTM)
1.15
P/FCF (TTM)
57.52
Rev YoY
+5.8%
EPS YoY
-153.0%
Gross Margin
+33.2%
Op Margin
+16.8%
Net Debt
$7.07B
Current Ratio
0.78
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data