B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
+23.6% vs current
SEG
Seaport Entertainment GroupBNYSE / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
-1.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
-34.1% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-24.0
Negative
Company
-45.0
Negative
Macro
-23.0
Negative
Pulse
-45.4
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+45.5
Score
AI commentary
Post-earnings price action was mixed rather than decisively bullish: shares closed at $22.90 on May 6, 2026 and $22.24 on May 7, 2026 versus $22.44 on May 5, 2026, implying only a modest net negative reaction after the print. News flow is active because of the earnings release and related operating announcements, but by May 8, 2026 there is still limited visible analyst-revision evidence, so this remains a monitoring-style setup rather than a high-conviction rerating call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-31catalystQ1 earnings reset now shifts focus to peak-season traffic and newly opened conceptsHigh impact
Q1 revenue fell 20.7% year over year to $12.7 million and net loss widened, but management said it is entering its busiest period with Sadie’s open, the Rooftop at Pier 17 concert series returning, and the Las Vegas Aviators season underway [#8-K-2026-05-06]. If spring and summer foot traffic converts, the market can look through a weak transition quarter caused in part by the Tin Building changeover.
2026-09-30eventBalloon Museum lease should turn the Tin Building transition into a visible operating milestoneHigh impact
SEG disclosed a five-year lease with Lux Entertainment for the U.S. flagship Balloon Museum in the Tin Building, with expected opening in Q3 2026; the 10-Q says the prior Tin Building by Jean-Georges operation ceased in February 2026 as the landlord model began [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-06]. A successful opening would help replace a major source of current hospitality disruption with lease-backed traffic and rent.
2027-12-31catalystLeasing and programming backlog offers upside if management can convert pipeline into EBITDAHigh impact
The supplemental package lists multiple programmed additions across Seaport, including Balloon Museum, Flanker, Event Space, Public Service, and Meow Wolf, and cites approximately $31.0 million of incremental annualized pro forma EBITDA from leasing and programming activity [#8-K-2026-05-06]. This is the main rerating path, but it remains execution dependent and extends into 2027.
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology