B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SEG
Seaport Entertainment GroupDNYSE / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish read is that Q1 was a transition quarter: SEG monetized 250 Water Street, ended Q1 with $144.7 million of cash, only $39.1 million of fixed-rate debt, and has several near-dated openings or programmed uses that could improve utilization and lease economics [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.9.
What can break
Management cites macro, tariff, inflation, supply-chain, and discretionary-spending risks that could pressure both tenants and end-customer demand [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Momentum
72
Value
50
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $36.00
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d -0.6
Value50 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment45 · Δ7d +4.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Management cites macro, tariff, inflation, supply-chain, and discretionary-spending risks that could pressure both tenants and end-customer demand [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
- • Q1 2026 total revenue declined 20.7% year over year and net loss attributable to common stockholders widened 38.3%, showing the current earnings base remains fragile [#8-K-2026-05-06].
- • The bearish read is that current fundamentals are still weak: Q1 total revenue fell to $12.7 million, rental revenue declined 39% in landlord operations, and net loss attributable to common stockholders widened to $44.1 million, so investors are still underwriting future concepts rather than proven stabilized earnings [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Catalyst clock
2026-08-31
Q1 earnings reset now shifts focus to peak-season traffic and newly opened concepts
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
72
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-7.6
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
45
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.9
Δ21d
+4.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 72.3 / Value 50.1 / Sentiment 44.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$349.83M
Beta
-
Shares Out
12.81M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.0
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.25
Rev YoY
-13.8%
EPS YoY
-29.8%
Gross Margin
-29.5%
Op Margin
-86.1%
Net Debt
$7.48M
Current Ratio
3.62
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data