B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SCZM
Santacruz Silver MiningCNasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
FY2025 results showed materially stronger gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, liquidity and realized silver-equivalent pricing, while management also highlighted full Glencore debt repayment and a stronger balance sheet; if Bolivar recovers on schedule and Zimapan improvements hold, the equity can still defend a premium versus its own prior base [#PR-2026-03-31].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.6.
What can break
Bolivar recovery slips versus management's Q4 2026 expectation.
Momentum
96
Value
68
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.20 · Bull $10.80 · Bear $6.40Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.74
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d -1.1
Value68 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -3.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Bolivar recovery slips versus management's Q4 2026 expectation.
- • Loose peer set and sparse outside coverage leave the name vulnerable to sentiment swings.
- • The deterministic prior is negative and very uncertain, the evidence set is still thin, and FY2025 production was down 11% with AISC up 18%; much of the visible upside still depends on execution at Bolivar and plant-level improvement programs that are not yet fully proven in reported 2026 results [#PR-2026-03-31].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Market digestion of oversubscribed San Lucas note financing
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
96
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
+8.2
Value
68
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
-18.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 96.5 / Value 67.5 / Sentiment 47.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$802.2M
Beta
2.69
Shares Out
92.74M
P/E (TTM)
11.6
P/S (TTM)
2.95
P/FCF (TTM)
15.38
Rev YoY
+54.8%
EPS YoY
-97.7%
Gross Margin
+35.7%
Op Margin
+30.0%
Net Debt
-$8.08M
Current Ratio
1.51
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data