B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RUN
SunrunCNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.5
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+75.1
Score
AI commentary
Recent secondary coverage reported an approximately 10% decline after the lower cash outlook, while the RankAlpha anchor price was $9.38 on August 6. No verified post-August 6 price series or post-print analyst target, rating, or estimate revision is available in the packet or bounded search. The negative reaction and weak Q2 volume/value metrics outweigh the record storage attachment and financing progress for near-term sentiment; confidence remains tentative and monitoring-oriented.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-05eventQ2 earnings reset and negative market reactionHigh impact
Q2 Cash Generation was $23 million, while net cash used in operating activities was $186 million. Sunrun reduced 2026 Cash Generation guidance to $200 million-$375 million from $250 million-$450 million, citing lower affiliate-channel volumes, delayed direct-sales ramp, and higher capital costs. Recent coverage reported an approximately 10% share-price decline after the outlook cut [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
2026-11-06catalystProof of cash conversion and sales-force productivityHigh impact
The next operating update must show that project-finance timing, direct-sales ramp, and channel-volume issues are improving. Q2 subscriber additions fell 31% year over year and solar capacity installed fell 23%, increasing execution sensitivity [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
2027-08-08catalystStorage-first mix and distributed-fleet monetizationHigh impact
Storage attachment reached a record 74%, with approximately 4.6 GWh of networked storage capacity. Sunrun also described non-binding distributed-power-plant and AI data-center initiatives, creating long-term optionality but no demonstrated revenue contribution yet [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology