B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RUN
SunrunDNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record storage attachment, a larger dispatchable fleet, and new grid-service opportunities could improve cash generation if customer additions and unit economics recover [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.3.
What can break
Affiliate-channel weakness, slower direct-sales productivity, lower subscriber value, and higher capital costs [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
12
Value
47
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.30 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $5.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.18
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d +3.2
Value47 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -3.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Affiliate-channel weakness, slower direct-sales productivity, lower subscriber value, and higher capital costs [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Dependence on continued access to asset-level financing and sensitivity to financing costs.
- • The guidance cut reflected reduced affiliate volumes, a delayed direct-sales ramp, and higher capital costs.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-28
Test of reduced 2026 cash-generation guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
+3.3
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-7.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 11.8 / Value 47.0 / Sentiment 61.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.83B
Beta
2.36
Shares Out
240.85M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
3.9
P/S (TTM)
1.83
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.93
Rev YoY
+52.8%
EPS YoY
-60.7%
Gross Margin
+32.1%
Op Margin
+2.5%
Net Debt
$13.59B
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data