B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RUN
SunrunCNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record storage attachment, rising subscriber value, non-recourse financing access, and potential distributed-fleet monetization could support a recovery if sales productivity and cash conversion improve.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
2026 Cash Generation guidance was reduced to $200 million-$375 million, excluding equipment safe-harbor investments [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
7
Value
48
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $13.50 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $15.71
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d -1.0
Value48 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment75 · Δ7d -6.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 Cash Generation guidance was reduced to $200 million-$375 million, excluding equipment safe-harbor investments [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Distributed-power-plant and AI data-center initiatives are described as non-binding or pilot-stage and may not generate material revenue.
- • The guidance cut, weak subscriber and installed-capacity growth, sharply lower net subscriber value, higher creation costs, and negative operating cash flow point to execution and capital-intensity risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 earnings reset and negative market reaction
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
+2.9
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+6.2
Sentiment
75
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.3
Δ21d
+2.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 7.3 / Value 48.4 / Sentiment 75.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.37B
Beta
2.36
Shares Out
240.85M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
5.0
P/S (TTM)
1.83
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.20
Rev YoY
+52.8%
EPS YoY
-60.7%
Gross Margin
+32.1%
Op Margin
+2.5%
Net Debt
$13.59B
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data