B+
Bull case
22%
Probability
Target price
$66.00
+15.4% vs current
PARR
Par PacificCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
At close
2026-06-03
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
48%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
-5.6% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
-26.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-15
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+27.3
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+27.2
Positive
Pulse
+35.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+39.8
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source evidence quality is adequate because the Q1 2026 filing set and the May 14, 2026 financing 8-K are available, but forward evidence remains limited and outside coverage in the packet is thin. The deterministic prior is neutral to slightly negative, and the stock closed at $60.18 on 2026-05-14 despite sparse target data centered below that level. This remains a tentative monitoring view rather than a standard-conviction thesis.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-15
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-14eventMay 14 refinancing expands liquidity but raises fixed-cost burdenMedium impact
Par Pacific completed a $500 million 7.375% senior notes offering due 2034 and amended its ABL into a facility of up to $1.8 billion maturing in 2031, improving liquidity flexibility for working capital, capex, and turnarounds while adding unsecured interest burden that investors will monitor [#8-K-2026-05-14].
2026-09-30eventHawaii renewable fuels startup and Q1 operating reboundMedium impact
Company sources show Q1 net income of $54.5 million, adjusted EBITDA of $91.5 million, record Hawaii refining throughput near 89.8 Mbpd, and commercial operations beginning at the Hawaii renewable fuels facility in April 2026, creating a real but still early ramp catalyst for mix and margin improvement over the next few quarters [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
2026-12-31catalystCash conversion and maintenance execution remain the key proof pointsHigh impact
The main medium-term debate is whether strong refining conditions translate into durable free-cash-flow generation after working-capital swings, deferred turnaround spending, and derivative volatility; Q1 operating cash flow was negative because of working capital outflows even as management said liquidity was sufficient for the next 12 months [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-15 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology