B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PARR
Par PacificANYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$78.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-24
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+26.5
Positive
Company
+10.0
Positive
Macro
+26.5
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-55.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+65.4
Score
AI commentary
Q2 company evidence is strong, but Q3 remains unreported. The October valuation-driven Mizuho downgrade tempers the positive operating narrative. A verified post-Q3 price reaction and broad analyst-revision series are unavailable; zero-valued sentiment fields denote unavailable measurements, not neutral readings. This remains a cautious monitoring view.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-24
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-11-03eventNovember 3 third-quarter resultsMedium impact
Par Pacific scheduled its Q3 release for November 3. The key test is whether refining margins and throughput sustain Q2's unusually strong earnings after the Hawaii turnaround [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-10-12] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]. The company has not yet reported Q3 results.
2026-12-31eventProposed Laramie asset saleMedium impact
Par Pacific expects approximately $146 million from Laramie's proposed asset sale, including about $27.5 million payable five years after closing. Closing is expected by year-end but remains subject to approvals and conditions [#PR-2026-08-25] company release.
2027-06-30catalystRefining-margin normalizationHigh impact
Q2 benefited from a $76.5 million Hawaii price-lag gain and a much stronger Hawaii refining index than a year earlier. Reversal of those conditions could materially reduce earnings despite the substantially completed turnaround [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-24 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology