B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PARR
Par PacificCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+38.0
Positive
Company
+2.0
Mixed
Macro
+38.2
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+22.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+41.0
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source evidence is strong and the Q2 headline tone is positive, but the post-release price reaction and analyst revision signal are unavailable. The $83 target median is a weak valuation anchor because target-count data is missing. This remains a cautious monitoring view despite the strong reported quarter.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-09
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-04eventQ2 2026 earnings materially reset near-term earnings powerHigh impact
Par Pacific reported Q2 net income of $462.1 million, adjusted EPS of $10.10, and adjusted EBITDA of $571.3 million, while stating that the Hawaii turnaround was substantially complete and current market conditions were favorable [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
2026-09-30catalystMargin normalization and price-lag reversal riskHigh impact
Hawaii benefited from a $76.5 million net price-lag impact in Q2; the company noted that this benefit was driven by lower refined-product prices in June, leaving forward earnings sensitive to refining-margin direction [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
2026-12-31catalystTurnaround completion, renewable-fuels ramp, and debt reductionHigh impact
The completed Hawaii turnaround, April commercial start-up of the Hawaii renewable-fuels facility, and a $500 million senior-notes offering that reduced term debt by more than $130 million could support reliability, mix, and balance-sheet improvement if sustained [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] [#SEC-8K-2026-05-05].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology