B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PARR
Par PacificANYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 adjusted EBITDA reached $571.3 million, the Hawaii turnaround was substantially complete, and the proposed Laramie exit could release capital [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] [#PR-2026-08-25]. Sustained margins would support upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
Q3 results have not been released, leaving current-quarter operating visibility limited.
Momentum
83
Value
71
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $78.00 · Bull $105.00 · Bear $54.00Analysis 2026-10-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-03 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $95.50
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d -9.9
Value71 · Δ7d +1.3
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +11.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q3 results have not been released, leaving current-quarter operating visibility limited.
- • Refining spreads and the Q2 Hawaii price-lag benefit may normalize [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Q2's Hawaii price-lag benefit and exceptionally strong refining index may not recur [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Catalyst clock
2026-11-03 · AMC
November 3 third-quarter results
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.9
Δ21d
-9.0
Value
71
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
+2.4
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.2
Δ21d
+10.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 82.6 / Value 71.1 / Sentiment 64.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$78.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$4.17B
Beta
1.23
Shares Out
50.1M
P/E (TTM)
7.8
P/S (TTM)
0.25
P/FCF (TTM)
11.22
Rev YoY
+56.8%
EPS YoY
+699.1%
Gross Margin
+14.5%
Op Margin
+13.3%
Net Debt
$1.23B
Current Ratio
1.84
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data