B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ORN
Orion GroupDNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$8.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$6.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-09-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+53.2
Score
AI commentary
The company release supports a mixed operating picture: stronger bookings and Concrete growth alongside a Marine-driven profit-guidance cut. The September 21 8-K extended two executive employment agreements but supplied no operating update. [#8-K-2026-09-21] Verified post-print price reaction and analyst revisions are unavailable; the zero sentiment-field values denote unavailable measurements, not neutral readings. This remains a cautious monitoring view.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-12-31eventMarine backlog conversionHigh impact
Q2 awards and change orders were $277 million, book-to-bill was 1.25 times, and quarter-end backlog was $722 million, including $554 million in Marine. Conversion into revenue and improved utilization remains execution-dependent. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
2026-12-31catalystTest of reduced 2026 profit guidanceHigh impact
Orion held 2026 revenue guidance at $900 million–$950 million but cut adjusted EBITDA guidance to $50 million–$54 million and adjusted EPS guidance to $0.23–$0.30 after Marine project-start delays and lower equipment utilization. Delivery against the revised ranges is the near-term test. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
2027-06-30catalystConcrete growth sustains segment mixHigh impact
Concrete revenue grew more than 30% and adjusted EBITDA more than 45% in Q2. Sustained awards and site-civil execution could offset some Marine volatility, but one strong quarter does not establish a durable margin trend. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-09-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology