ORN

Orion GroupB

NYSE / Capital Goods

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

Probability

Target price

$15.50

+9.9% vs current

Most likely

Base case

Probability

Target price

$13.25

-6.0% vs current

B-

Bear case

Probability

Target price

$9.25

-34.4% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-04-15

AI commentary

Deterministic inputs lean positive, but only modestly: evidence quality is middling and uncertainty is elevated. The primary-source record supports a cautious positive view centered on execution, contract conversion, and acquisition integration rather than a high-conviction re-rating call.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-15

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-04-28catalystQ1 2026 print is the next proof pointHigh impact

Orion said it will report Q1 2026 results on April 28, 2026, which is the first quarter that can show whether the February McAmis acquisition and March contract wins are translating into revenue, backlog, and margin progression. This is the cleanest near-term test of the 2026 guidance framework. [#PR-2026-04-08] [#PR-2026-03-03]

2026-07-28eventMcAmis integration could widen marine capability and 2026 EBITDAHigh impact

Orion completed the J.E. McAmis acquisition for about $60 million net of cash acquired, called it accretive to 2026 adjusted EBITDA and margin, and said the target adds jetty and breakwater capability plus a $1.4 billion opportunity pipeline; however, purchase accounting was still in process in the March 3 guidance package, so execution and integration quality still need confirmation. [#PR-2026-02-04] [#PR-2026-03-03] [#10-K-2026-03-04]

2026-10-27catalystBacklog rebuild and contract conversion remain the core medium-term driverHigh impact

The constructive part of the thesis is that 2025 awards and early 2026 wins support future work: Orion reported $763 million of 2025 awards, a $23 billion opportunity pipeline including McAmis, and over $125 million of awards and change orders through February 28, 2026, with demand tied to data centers, specialty manufacturing, and marine infrastructure. The caution is that year-end backlog still fell to $640 million from $729 million, so this remains a monitoring thesis until backlog and margins inflect together. [#PR-2026-03-03] [#PR-2026-03-19]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-04-15 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology