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ORN

Orion GroupB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Maintained revenue guidance, strong Concrete and data-center momentum, robust bookings, and Marine work already under contract could allow utilization and margins to recover in the second half. The backlog and award pipeline support a constructive longer-term setup.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.5.
What can break
Analyst revision data and verified post-release market reaction are unavailable; coverage is low.
Momentum
6
Value
48
Sentiment
84
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.50 · Bull $14.50 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-08-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.99
Why
Momentum6 · Δ7d -0.6
Value48 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment84 · Δ7d +4.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst revision data and verified post-release market reaction are unavailable; coverage is low.
  • • Further Marine project delays or weak equipment utilization could pressure margins and require another guidance reduction.
  • • The Q2 shortfall exposed Marine scheduling and equipment-utilization risk, and management materially reduced EBITDA and EPS guidance.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-08

Marine mobilization and utilization recovery

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
6
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
+3.0
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
84
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.5
Δ21d
+6.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 6.3 / Value 48.5 / Sentiment 84.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-10. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$397.26M
Beta
1.17
Shares Out
40.5M
P/E (TTM)
43.1
P/S (TTM)
0.50
P/FCF (TTM)
19.08
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
-585.3%
Gross Margin
+11.7%
Op Margin
+0.7%
Net Debt
$47.1M
Current Ratio
1.52
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data