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OlinD
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2026-06-03
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2026-05-18
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Earnings documents stored for OLN.

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Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-18

KOP Tops Earnings and Revenue Estimates in Q1 on PC Unit Strength

Zacks

Koppers Holdings Inc. KOP logged earnings (as reported) of 35 cents per share for the first quarter of 2026. This compares favorably with a loss of 68 cents a year ago. Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings were 57 cents per share for the quarter, which fell from 71 cents a year ago and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents. Koppers recorded revenues of $455.3 million for the quarter, down around 0.3% year over year. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $410.5 million by roughly 10.9%. Adjusted EBITDA was $49.3 million, down 11.2% year over year, with margin contracting to 10.8% from 12.2%. Sales were mixed across segments in the quarter, with strength in Performance Chemicals (PC) offset by declines in Railroad and Utility Products and Services (RUPS) and Carbon Materials and Chemicals (CMC). Koppers Holdings Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Koppers Holdings Inc. Quote RUPS: Sales from the segment fell around 6.4% year over year to $220 million in the reported quarter. Adjusted EBITDA declined 11.4% to $22.6 million, and margin contracted to 10.3% from 10.9%. The decline was due to customer mix in Class I crossties, lower maintenance-of-way activity, including roughly $9.6 million tied to the sale of the railroad services business in the third quarter of 2025, and price decreases across multiple markets, particularly crossties. These headwinds were partly offset by higher domestic utility pole volumes, including the acquisition of a western U.S. pole procurement business, higher commercial crosstie volumes and a $1.4 million favorable foreign currency impact, mainly from the Australian utility pole business. PC: The segment recorded sales of $142.1 million in the quarter, up around 17.5% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 28.4% to $25.8 million, with margin expanding to 18.2% from 16.6%. The gains were driven by a 15% increase in volumes and higher sales prices, mainly in the Americas. International foreign currency changes provided a $2.7 million favorable impact, while $2.4 million of higher raw material and operating costs partly offset the improvement, including higher scrap copper costs net of benefits from the company's copper-hedging program. CMC: Sales from the division fell around 7.4% year over year to $93.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA plunged 90.9% to $0.9 million, with margin down to 1% from 9.8%. The declin...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-15

AVNT Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Cost Control and FX Tailwind

Zacks

Avient Corporation AVNT reported adjusted earnings of 83 cents per share for the first quarter of 2026, up 9.2% from 76 cents a year ago. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 81 cents by 2.5%. Net sales were $847.4 million, up 2.5% year over year and slightly ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $845.8 million. The top line improved despite a challenging backdrop, with sales growth supported by currency translation. AVNT highlighted that first-quarter sales growth included a 5% favorable foreign exchange impact. Profitability improved alongside revenues. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $149.9 million from $144.7 million a year ago, taking adjusted EBITDA as a percent of sales to 17.7% from 17.5%. The results benefited from productivity improvement and cost-control actions. Avient Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Avient Corporation Quote Color, Additives and Inks sales were $528.1 million in the quarter, up 1.6% from $519.7 million a year ago. Segment EBITDA increased to $103.8 million from $100.3 million, implying an EBITDA margin of about 19.7% versus roughly 19.3% in the prior-year quarter. Specialty Engineered Materials generated sales of $320.2 million, up 3.8% from $308.4 million in the year-ago quarter. Segment EBITDA rose to $70 million from $68.6 million, translating to an EBITDA margin of about 21.9% compared with approximately 22.2% a year ago. Avient ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $427.6 million, down from $510.5 million in the prior quarter. Long-term debt was essentially steady at $1,924 million versus $1,922.6 million at year-end 2025. Net cash used in operating activities was $34.5 million compared with $51.1 million used in the prior-year quarter, while capital expenditures were $19 million versus $12.5 million a year ago. AVNT guided to second-quarter adjusted earnings of 89 cents per share, which management said would represent 11% growth over the prior-year quarter. The company also emphasized that its first-half expectations are now slightly better than expected versus the start of the year. For full-year 2026, Avient maintained its adjusted EPS guidance range of $2.93 to $3.17 and reiterated its adjusted EBITDA outlook of $555 million to $585 million. Management noted that the outlook for the second half of the year is less certain, supporting its decision to keep the full-year targets unc...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-14

Olin Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat

Interested in Olin Corporation? Here are five stocks we like better. Olin expects a sharp sequential boost in Q2 earnings, with adjusted EBITDA guided to $160 million-$200 million versus about $86 million in Q1. Management said higher pricing, seasonal demand and cost cuts are starting to show up, led by the Chlor Alkali Products & Vinyls segment. Epoxy returned to profitability in the first quarter, and Olin expects further improvement from European rationalization, cost actions and price increases. The company also raised epoxy resin prices in North America and Europe to help offset feedstock and transportation costs. Liquidity and cost reduction remain top priorities, with Olin citing $1.3 billion of available liquidity, no debt maturities before 2029 and continued savings from its Beyond 250 program. The company also expects a second-quarter hit from an unplanned vinyls outage at its Freeport, Texas plant, though it expects to restart the assets soon. 3 Stocks Ringing in The New Year With Large Buyback Announcements Olin (NYSE:OLN) executives said the company expects a sharp sequential improvement in second-quarter earnings as higher pricing, seasonal demand and cost reductions begin to flow through results following a challenging but improving first quarter. Speaking on Olin’s first-quarter 2026 earnings call, President and CEO Ken Lane said the company operated in a “very dynamic” environment while focusing on safety, reliability, liquidity and cost reduction through its Beyond 250 program. Lane said first-quarter results showed early progress, including a return to profitability in the Epoxy business and signs of improving demand for Winchester commercial ammunition. → Rocket Lab Just Hit a New All-Time High—Time to Buy or Let It Breathe? The Top 3 Materials Stocks to Buy in November Olin guided for second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $160 million to $200 million. During the question-and-answer session, Alembic Global Advisors analyst Hassan Ahmed noted that Olin generated about $86 million of EBITDA in the first quarter, asking for a bridge to the midpoint of the second-quarter outlook. Lane said the largest driver of the expected improvement would be the company’s Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, or CAPV, segment, supported by higher pricing and volumes as assets return to service. Lane said the company’s chlor-alkali and vinyls business benefited in...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-08

Olin: Q1 Earnings Snapshot

Associated Press

CLAYTON, Mo. (AP) — CLAYTON, Mo. (AP) — Olin Corp. (OLN) on Thursday reported a loss of $83 million in its first quarter. On a per-share basis, the Clayton, Missouri-based company said it had a loss of 73 cents. Losses, adjusted for restructuring costs, were 65 cents per share. The results beat Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 67 cents per share. The chlor-alkali and ammunition producer' posted revenue of $1.58 billion in the period, which also beat Street forecasts. Four analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $1.57 billion. _____ This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research. Access a Zacks stock report on OLN at https://www.zacks.com/ap/OLN

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-08

Olin Announces First Quarter 2026 Results

PR Newswire

Highlights First quarter 2026 net loss of ($83.0) million, or ($0.73) per diluted share Quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $86.2 million CLAYTON, Mo., May 7, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Olin Corporation (NYSE: OLN) announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. First quarter 2026 reported net loss was ($83.0) million, or ($0.73) per diluted share, which compares to first quarter 2025 reported net income of $1.4 million, or $0.01 per diluted share. First quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $86.2 million excludes depreciation and amortization expense of $117.2 million, restructuring charges of $9.1 million and legacy litigation charges of $36.1 million. First quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $185.6 million. Sales in the first quarter 2026 were $1,583.0 million, compared to $1,644.2 million in the first quarter 2025. Ken Lane, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "During the first quarter, the Olin team delivered sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA. Our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business benefited from favorable operating cost performance driven by our Beyond250 structural cost actions and lower than expected planned maintenance turnaround expenses. Our Epoxy business returned to positive adjusted EBITDA underpinned by growth in its European business, supported by structurally improved costs at our Stade, Germany facility. Winchester's sequential improvement was driven by actions taken late last year to accelerate channel inventory destocking, as well as improving demand and pricing measures implemented to offset commodity metals and raw materials cost inflation. "Late in the first quarter, the Iran conflict began to impact trade flows and to increase raw material and feedstock costs. As global supply shortages persist into the second quarter and potentially beyond, our advantaged North American asset base positions us to reliably serve our customers. "Looking ahead, our Chemicals businesses are expected to deliver sequential earnings improvement driven by seasonally stronger demand and improved pricing, particularly for ethylene dichloride, caustic soda, and epoxy resins. In our Winchester business, improving commercial and military demand are expected to support sequential earnings growth. Overall, second quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA is forecast to be in the range of $160 million to $200 million," Lane concluded. SEGMENT REPORTING...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-08

Olin Corporation Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary

Moby

Our analysts just identified a stock with the potential to be the next Nvidia. Tell us how you invest and we'll show you why it's our #1 pick. Tap here. Performance attribution shifted toward U.S. Gulf Coast assets as the Iran conflict drove up global crude oil and freight rates, disproportionately impacting non-U.S. producers. The Epoxy segment returned to profitability following a strategic pivot to become the last integrated producer in Europe and the rationalization of high-cost assets in Brazil. Management is executing a 'value-first' commercial approach, prioritizing price over volume to preserve ECU values through a historic market trough. Operational efficiency gains from the 'Beyond two fifty' program are being realized through AI-driven maintenance planning and a 15% reduction in site headcount. Market dynamics in the vinyls sector have tightened significantly, with 6% to 9% of global capacity offline due to feedstock constraints and high energy costs in Asia. Winchester's recovery is driven by a 'make-to-demand' model that successfully rebalanced retail channel inventories and aligned shipments with consumer sales. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA is projected between $160 million and $200 million, assuming a successful restart of the Freeport vinyls assets by late next week. Management expects 2026 to be essentially a cash-free tax year, plus or minus $20 million, due to anticipated refunds from clean hydrogen production tax credits. The 'Beyond two fifty' program is targeted to deliver an incremental $100 million to $120 million in structural savings during 2026. Pricing for caustic soda and EDC is expected to stabilize at higher levels as global supply chain disruptions from the Middle East linger for weeks or months. Winchester anticipates a mid- to high-single digit year-over-year volume uplift as retail purchases realign with out-the-door sales. An unplanned outage at the Freeport, Texas vinyls plant will negatively impact Q2 results; the company is currently conducting a root cause analysis. Raw material inflation in copper, brass, and propellants remains a headwind for the Winchester segment, though management expects implemented pricing actions to offset the majority of 2026 cost inflation. Net debt and leverage increased in the first quarter due to seasonal working capital needs, and net debt is expected to rise during 2026 as the company...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-08

Olin (OLN) Q1 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Zacks

Olin (OLN) reported $1.58 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2026, representing a year-over-year decline of 3.7%. EPS of -$0.65 for the same period compares to $0.04 a year ago. The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.57 billion, representing a surprise of +1.11%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +3.1%, with the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.67. While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health. Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance. Here is how Olin performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: Sales- Epoxy: $355.6 million compared to the $348.8 million average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +7.2% year over year. Sales- Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls: $756.9 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $798.94 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -18.1%. Sales- Winchester: $470.5 million versus $408.35 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +21.3% change. Income (Loss) before Taxes- Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls: $-44.5 million compared to the $-31.58 million average estimate based on two analysts. Income (Loss) before Taxes- Winchester: $15.2 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $4.28 million. Income (Loss) before Taxes- Epoxy: $-2.9 million compared to the $-10.14 million average estimate based on two analysts. View all Key Company Metrics for Olin here>>> Shares of Olin have returned -0.5% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11.4% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Olin Corporation (OLN) : Free Stock Analysis Report Th...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-08

Olin (OLN) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Motley Fool

Image source: The Motley Fool. Friday, May 8, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. ET President and Chief Executive Officer — Ken Lane Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer — Todd Slater Ken Lane: Thanks, Steve, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your time and your continued interest in Olin Corporation. Let's start on Slide 3 for a review of our first quarter highlights. Amid a very dynamic operating environment in the first quarter, the Olin Corporation team executed with discipline, maintaining focus on running our assets safely and reliably, removing structural costs through our Beyond two fifty program, and preserving liquidity, all while staying firmly committed to our value-first commercial approach. That discipline translated into positive results in the first quarter and sets the stage for stronger earnings in the coming months. During the first quarter, our epoxy business returned to profitability, and we saw early signs of demand growth for Winchester commercial ammunition. The Iran conflict introduced significant disruption across global petrochemical supply chains. Sharply higher crude oil prices and freight rates disproportionately impacted non-U.S. producers, further reinforcing the structural cost advantage of U.S. Gulf Coast assets such as Olin Corporation's. While these dynamics did not materially benefit our first quarter results due to normal pricing lags, they meaningfully improved the outlook for the second quarter. Looking ahead, the near-term backdrop has shifted more in favor of U.S. producers than where we were at the beginning of the year. While the duration of Middle East disruptions remains uncertain, we believe the full impact is still unfolding as global supply chains continue to tighten. We are seeing significant inventory drawdowns and deferred maintenance temporarily helping bridge supply gaps. This creates a more constructive environment as the year progresses. Olin Corporation is well positioned to navigate this dynamic environment, supported by our advantaged asset base, improving cost structure, and strong cash generation. As regional customers increasingly prioritize security of supply, we have the flexibility to increase operating rates and capture value while maintaining our value-first commercial approach. Now let's turn to Slide 4 for a deeper review of Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (CAPV). Fi...

TranscriptFY2026 Q12026-05-08

FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript

Earnings source - 72 paragraphs
Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Olin Corporation's first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. Following today's brief opening comments, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star and then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.

Steve Keenan

Thank you, Nick. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to review Olin's first quarter 2026 results. Please keep in mind that today's discussion, together with the associated slides, as well as the question and answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance. Please note these are forward-looking statements and that Olin's actual results could differ materially from those projected. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in yesterday's first quarter earnings press release. A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under Past Events. Our earnings press release and related financial data and information are available under Press Releases.

Steve Keenan

With me this morning are Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO, and Todd Slater, Olin's CFO. We'll start with some prepared remarks, then we'll look forward to taking your questions. I'll now turn the call over to Olin's President and CEO, Ken Lane.

Ken Lane

Thanks, Steve. Thank you to everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your time and your continued interest in Olin. Let's start on slide 3 for a view of our first quarter highlights. Amid a very dynamic operating environment in the first quarter, the Olin team executed with discipline, maintaining focus on running our assets safely and reliably, removing structural costs through our Beyond 250 program and preserving liquidity, all while staying firmly committed to our value-first commercial approach. That discipline translated into positive results in the first quarter and sets the stage for stronger earnings in the coming months. During the first quarter, our Epoxy business returned to profitability, and we saw early signs of demand growth for Winchester commercial ammunition. The Iran conflict introduced significant disruption across global petrochemical supply chains.

Ken Lane

Sharply higher crude oil prices and freight rates disproportionately impacted non-U.S. producers, further reinforcing the structural cost advantage of U.S. Gulf Coast assets such as Olin's. While these dynamics did not materially benefit our first quarter results due to normal pricing lags, they meaningfully improved the outlook for the second quarter. Looking ahead, the near-term backdrop has shifted more in favor of U.S. producers than where we were at the beginning of the year. While the duration of Middle East disruptions remains uncertain, we believe the full impact is still unfolding as global supply chains continue to tighten. We're seeing significant inventory drawdowns and deferred maintenance temporarily helping bridge supply gaps. This creates a more constructive environment as the year progresses. Olin is well positioned to navigate this dynamic environment, supported by our advantaged asset base, improving cost structure, and strong cash generation.

Ken Lane

As regional customers increasingly prioritize security of supply, we have the flexibility to increase operating rates and capture value while maintaining our value-first commercial approach. Let's turn to slide 4 for a deeper review of chlor-alkali products and vinyls. 1st quarter results reflected lower operating costs driven by Beyond 250 and lower than expected maintenance turnaround costs. Merchant chlorine demand was seasonally soft but improved from the 4th quarter with year-end customer destocking behind us. We saw chlorine demand into water treatment and crop protection rebound nicely in mid-March as U.S. temperatures warmed. Caustic soda continues to be the stronger side of the ECU. Global demand is stable against the backdrop of tightening supply and a rising cost curve for non-U.S. producers, which sets up for improved earnings as we move through the year.

Ken Lane

Several Asian vinyls producers have declared force majeure due to limited access to feedstocks and rapidly increasing costs. This disruption constrains chlor-alkali production, reducing the availability of co-produced caustic soda. While China has been less affected given its significant coal-based vinyls production, the net impact has been a meaningful reduction in global supply. Trade publications estimate that 6% to 9% of annual vinyls capacity is impacted globally. All of this drove a sharp spike in global pricing in late March, with levels now moderating as inventories are depleted. U.S. export EDC prices significantly increased since January. We expect EDC and caustic soda pricing to stabilize at higher levels compared to earlier in the year as shortages persist and production costs remain high.

Ken Lane

Olin has announced a total of $185 per ton in domestic caustic soda price increases for implementation in the first half of 2026. We continue to aggressively implement the balance of our price announcements. Slide 5 provides a look at our epoxy results. First quarter 2026 marks an important milestone as our epoxy business returned to profitability. We expect full year epoxy performance to be meaningfully improved with our return to profitability driven by several well-executed actions. Our epoxy team has grown our European business in the wake of regional rationalizations. Our new European cost structure is on course to deliver $40 million-$50 million of annual cost improvement. Our Formulated Solutions portfolio continues to provide a high margin platform for growth with a strategic focus on electronics, semiconductors, and power generation.

Ken Lane

Our recent plant closure in Guarujá, Brazil will further improve our cost structure and strengthen supply integration. In addition to these actions, we are focused on raising prices, which have been significantly depressed due to subsidized Asian supply. Olin announced March and April epoxy resin price increases totaling more than $1,200 per ton in North America and EUR 1,300 per metric ton in Europe. We expect these increases to offset the higher feedstock and transportation costs. Let's now turn to slide 6 for an update on our Winchester business. Winchester's 1st quarter performance was a significant improvement. The team took decisive actions in the 2nd half of last year to rebalance channel inventories and position the business for improved commercial volume and price. As a result, we have regained commercial pricing traction and retail shipments are moving back into alignment without the door sales.

Ken Lane

As retailer purchases align, we would expect to realize a commercial volume uplift of mid to high single digits year-over-year. Raw material costs remain a headwind, particularly copper, as well as brass and propellants. We expect that our pricing actions, once implemented, will offset the majority of 2025 cost inflation. However, we expect to continue to see cost pressure as we go through the year. We're continuing to operate a disciplined make-to-demand model that aligns to our value-first commercial approach. As a result, we're building a strong commercial backlog while tightly managing our working capital. Winchester is a core part of Olin's portfolio. With its iconic global brand, long-standing relationships with leading retailers, the U.S. military, and a broad base of international customers, the business is well-positioned to deliver durable, long-term growth and value creation.

Ken Lane

I'll now turn the call over to Todd for a look at our financial highlights.

Todd Slater

Thanks, Ken. Let's review our cash flow, liquidity, and financial foundation. Our top priority continues to be generating strong cash flow to preserve and further enhance liquidity. In February, we took proactive steps to amend our bank credit facilities, providing greater covenant flexibility through late 2027. As a result, we maintain full access to our revolving credit facility and $1.3 billion of available liquidity. Our debt structure is well-organized with manageable tranches and staggered bond maturities over the coming years, and no maturities before 2029. As is typical with seasonal working capital needs, net debt and leverage increased in the first quarter. We expect net debt to rise during the first half of 2026 as we make payments to resolve legacy litigation matters. Now, let me take a moment to discuss our outlook for expected uses of cash in 2026.

Todd Slater

First, regarding cash taxes, we anticipate receiving refunds from prior years related to clean hydrogen production tax credits under Section 45V as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Factoring in these refunds, we expect 2026 to essentially be a cash-free tax year, ±$20 million. We are proactively managing our capital spending, targeting approximately $200 million with a focus on funding sustaining capital expenditures to ensure safe and reliable operations of our assets. We expect to continue our nearly century-long history of uninterrupted quarterly dividend payments. As we further strengthen our financial resilience, any remaining excess cash flow after the preceding capital allocation priorities will be used to reduce our outstanding debt. We remain firmly committed to managing our balance sheet in a way that maximizes our financial flexibility for the future.

Todd Slater

We anticipate ending the year with a debt leverage ratio of just above 4 times. Looking forward, our goal remains to average below 2 times leverage across the cycle. Our team's focus is on generating cash, strict cost control and advancing our Beyond 250 structural cost reduction program and a value-first commercial approach. Before I turn the call back to Ken, I wanna comment on Beyond 250. The program is designed to permanently remove structural costs, not simply trim around the edges. We have a clear line of sight to more than $250 million of cumulative savings by 2028. We delivered $44 million of structural savings last year and expect to deliver an incremental $100 million-$120 million in 2026.

Todd Slater

Every day, we continue to expand our Beyond 250 scope with a focus on people and processes. We're making great progress on safety with record performance in the first quarter. Our efficiency gains are well socialized and measurable. For example, we've nearly doubled our Freeport, Texas, time on tools. We have transformed our maintenance planning by leveraging historical data and AI tools to evolve from a reactive time-based scheduling to a proactive risk-based approach. We've streamlined the organization, reducing site headcount by 15% while reducing our reliance on contractors and improving reliability. To sum up, we are preserving a durable balance sheet, generating healthy cash flows, and maintaining a prudent capital structure to drive long-term shareholder value. Ken, let me hand the call back to you.

Ken Lane

Thanks, Todd. Let's finish up with slide eight and our outlook for the second quarter. With improved pricing and seasonally higher demand, we expect to realize significantly improved earnings in our CAPV business. Our second quarter outlook includes an estimated impact from an unplanned vinyls outage at our Freeport, Texas, plant. We're expecting to restart these assets late next week. Olin's value-first commercial approach has preserved our ECU values through an extended trough and provides an attractive starting point as we begin the next cycle. Looking out a little further, the chlor-alkali supply-demand dynamics are favorable with limited additional capacity, the likelihood of further asset rationalization, and a still to come housing and construction demand recovery. Chlor-alkali is well-positioned to rebound from this historic trough. In our epoxy business, we expect to see earnings improvement with higher seasonal demand, improved pricing, and continued cost improvements.

Ken Lane

We're realizing the benefits of being a strong, integrated local producer as customers seek reliable supply in the face of tremendous uncertainty. Winchester second quarter results are also expected to improve sequentially, with higher commercial ammunition volume and pricing and higher military sales. With that, we expect to deliver second quarter Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $160 million-$200 million, a significant sequential improvement. Operator, we're now ready to begin Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star and then 2. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to 1 question. The first question will come from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global Advisors. Please go ahead.

Hassan Ahmed

Morning, Ken and Todd. You know, just a question on the guidance. Obviously, you guys, you know, did $86 million or so in EBITDA in Q1 and are guiding to, I mean, if I were to take the midpoint, call it $180 million in Q2. I'm just trying to get a better sense of bridging that $100 million or so in incremental EBITDA. I mean, how much are you guys getting from Beyond 250? How much of that is some of these opportunities that you guys see via the conflict in the Middle East? You know, how much from sort of incremental, sort of, call it caustic and EDC export opportunities?

Ken Lane

Good morning, Hassan. Thank you for the question. The bridge to between Q one to Q two really is there are a lot of variables that are contributing to that. The largest one is going to be improvement in CAPV from the first quarter. That is gonna be driven by improved pricing. Yes, we're gonna continue to have some headwinds related to the turnaround costs, but assets are going to be running again, and so we will have higher volume in the second quarter, as well as higher pricing in the second quarter for CAPV. Both of those things are gonna drive a big part of it, but we are gonna continue to see benefits from improved costs in the second quarter. Again, netting out the impact from the turnaround.

Ken Lane

Now we've also built into that outlook, some of the impact or the impact that we currently estimate related to the outage in the vinyls assets down at Freeport. We are expecting to have those assets restarted late next week, so that is reflected there. That unfortunately takes a little bit out and we've, you know, certainly wanna make sure we get that done timely and safely, because it's important to get those assets back up when we're seeing the pricing environment that we are for those for those products. If you look at Epoxy and Winchester, we're gonna continue to see improvements in the Epoxy business. We'll see the seasonal uplift that we normally see for Epoxy. We are gonna see improving demand.

Ken Lane

Like I said in the prepared remarks, the team did an outstanding job really trying to position Olin as the last integrated epoxy producer in Europe, and being able to leverage that into a stronger market position with respect to volume growth in 2026 versus 2025. That's gonna continue into the 2Q. Then the momentum that we saw building from Winchester and the actions that Winchester took late last year to really start to rebalance things because, you know, last year was sort of the perfect storm with higher costs, lower demand and high inventories. That really has all corrected with the exception of the cost side of that equation. Inventories are certainly back where they're much more comfortable, let's say. Demand has started to come back.

Ken Lane

We are seeing year-over-year growth for the first time in over a year. That is very good to see. All of those things combined is what creates that uplift. Again, the biggest uplift is gonna be coming out of CAPV.

Operator

The next question will come from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research. Please go ahead.

Frank Mitsch

Hey, good morning. I wanted to get your thoughts on pricing as we exit 2Q. I mean, I think you have a, you know, fairly good line of sight on, you know, where you stand today and what your plans are in terms of getting price increases in June. As you think about, you know, the average 2Q price across your company versus where you're going to exit 2Q, I would imagine that sets up at a higher level for 3Q. Any way that you can kind of give us some orders of magnitude around expectations on the momentum on the pricing side?

Ken Lane

Good morning, Frank. Thanks for joining. As you can imagine, yeah, we'll start with CAPV. In the first quarter, we were already seeing momentum with caustic pricing coming out of the fourth quarter into the first quarter before everything started happening around the world that we saw late in the first quarter. We're gonna see that improvement really start to hit in Q2. Even with the lag that we see in some of the product lines and some of the businesses, yes, there's going to be good momentum continuing into the third quarter, and I expect that that's gonna carry through the year, to be honest with you. If I, if I think about CAPV, you think about caustic, you think about EDC, those are really gonna be the two big needle movers.

Ken Lane

Those price levels are gonna continue to be elevated versus where we thought they were gonna be at the beginning of the first quarter. We do see that continuing into the third quarter. Some of the dynamics that we've seen, though, is, you know, we had a really fast run-up in these prices, and then we saw them moderate a little bit. What we saw happening in the market is people who had inventory, as you would expect, they were pushing a lot of that volume into the markets when the prices were spiking.

Ken Lane

We see that coming down, and we think that once that has played through, and you got to remember even today, with talk about there being a ceasefire and everything in the Middle East, Brent oil is still over $100 a bbl, and you're looking at natural gas here in the U.S. at $2.70, $2.80. That's still a really sizable advantage for U.S. producers. In addition to that, you've taken basically out of the market all of that sanctioned oil that was going into a lot of assets in Asia at a significant discount that was creating a big distortion in the market. All of that is now gone. That is gonna be very constructive for pricing as we go into the third quarter.

Ken Lane

You know, generally speaking, I think you're just gonna start to see it in Q2, but really see it even more as you go out, you know, later in the year.

Operator

The next question will come from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Mike Sison

Hey, guys. Sorry about that. When you think about 2Q, the $160 million-$200 million, how would you sort of describe the earnings levels? Are we approaching a mid-cycle sort of number? You know, it doesn't feel like peak, particularly on volume. Just when you think about where pricing is gonna set up, and then as you head in, you know, longer term, do you think some of this is sustainable where, you know, maybe 2027 will have structurally higher pricing and margins for the industry?

Ken Lane

Good morning, Mike. Thanks for joining. You know, as you think back to what we had said at Investor Day, we're not anywhere near what we would consider our normalized level of earnings. You know, we definitely have seen an improvement from where we were at the beginning of the first quarter. There's no doubt about that. Even with this step up in earnings that we're going to see in Q2 and later in the year, I think what it really reflects is what we tried to emphasize at the Investor Day back at the end of 2024, which is the fact that there is a lot of leverage in Olin's portfolio.

Ken Lane

When you start to see demand come back and you do start to see the supply-demand balance get more normalized, as we've said, there is a lot of leverage here to the upside. We're not anywhere, you know, close to being at a normalized or, you know, what you may call mid-cycle level of earnings. We think that that's still out in the future. Once we start to see things like housing recovery recover and, you know, infrastructure and general construction coming back in both Europe and in the U.S., which is going to happen. I just wanna remind you what I had said on the call as well. It is very constructive when you look at the outlook for chlor-alkali supply and demand.

Ken Lane

The amount of additional capacity that is being added, the amount of rationalization that has happened and probably will continue to happen is going to be really constructive for us. There is still much more leverage here in Olin still to come, and you're just seeing the beginning of some of that now. When you ask about long-term sustainability, yes, I mean, we're in the trough and we're going to come out of the trough. I do think that the markets that we're in and the markets that we serve are really set up well to see that sooner than maybe others.

Operator

The next question will come from Patrick Cunningham with Citi. Please go ahead.

Patrick Cunningham

Hi, good morning. You know, you alluded to some of this price normalization, you know, obviously EDC being the one that's top of mind. I guess first, you know, what sort of sensitivity should we expect on EDC prices? Or perhaps you could help us with the price levels that are embedded within the outlook. Just in terms of the volume uplifts, or value rather, you know, how much is embedded within the Braskem arrangement versus, you know, how much opportunistic volume do you have to sell here?

Ken Lane

Good morning, Patrick. Thank you for the question. One of the things if you look at how we're trying to manage the portfolio, we have talked a lot about having optionality, especially around our chlorine outlets and how we're able to flex that as we see markets recover. We also wanna have a diverse set of options. It's not just about having one big option. We wanna have multiple options because all of these markets will recover at different rates. EDC is clearly one that's really important for us. The strategic relationship that we announced with Braskem is one that will be, you know, very accretive for us through the cycle. That only represents part of our EDC volume.

Ken Lane

You know, we continue to have also part of that EDC portfolio for us that will have a spot exposure. We're trying to get a balance there. You know, we don't wanna have everything spot. We don't wanna have everything that's in a long-term contract. We're doing that to be able to optimize and create the highest value that we can for Olin through the cycle. That is our strategy.

Operator

The next question will come from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Kevin McCarthy

Thank you and good morning. Ken, can you provide an update on your EDC and VCM operations at Freeport? Last quarter, I think you flagged a major triennial plans turnaround. In your prepared remarks this morning, I thought I heard reference to an unplanned outage. I'm not sure if those are related or unrelated, but maybe you can kind of talk through the operational outlook there in the quarter.

Ken Lane

Sure. Thanks for the question, Kevin. We in the second quarter, we completed that turnaround that we had started talking about at the last earnings call. You may recall that we talked about that bridging across the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter. We did successfully complete that, restarted the VCM assets in Freeport, and that all went very well. The team did an outstanding job executing that turnaround, safely, a little bit ahead of schedule and on budget. It was very good, very well executed. Unfortunately, we've had an unplanned event here recently that has brought down the vinyls assets at Freeport.

Ken Lane

As, as I said earlier, we're in the middle of running through our RCA, making sure that we've got everything established to be able to restart those assets safely. The current plan is to restart those assets late next week. I've got confidence that the team is gonna be able to do that and execute on that as well as they did with the turnaround. All of that looks to be coming back into good condition and good shape here in the next week or so.

Operator

The next question will come from Josh Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.

Josh Spector

Good morning. I wanted to ask broadly just about caustic dynamics here. I mean, obviously you're going for additional pricing, and you've alluded to that. When I look at Asia pricing relative to U.S. pricing, I mean, the U.S. seems to have moved to a bit of a premium here. You know, typically caustic production is going to increase as PVC production increases over the next few months. Really the question is, how do you expect North America prices to move higher if North America is going to maybe have more caustic to deal with in a few months and the manufacturing backdrop isn't that strong? You know, what am I missing on the pricing dynamic that pushes that even higher from here?

Ken Lane

Good morning, Josh. Thank you for joining us. There are a lot of dynamics going on in the caustic market that I think people probably underestimate, and thinking, linearly about what's happening is, you know, and saying what happened in the past is what's going to happen in the current environment. There are so many things that have changed when you think about freight rates, you think about the disruptions just in the supply chains. I'll give you an example. You know, there used to be caustic coming into the East Coast from Europe, there was caustic coming in from the West Coast from Asia, that's pretty much gone now. All of those dynamics are very different than if you just look at a price in a reported index in Asia or somewhere else.

Ken Lane

It really becomes, well, what's the availability of product that drives the pricing, as much as looking at the arbitrage because you've got a big step up in freight costs as well. That is gonna be driving the dynamics here for really the foreseeable future. I don't see that changing. I want to back up to the first quarter because we're all focused on what's happening just right now. Even back between the fourth quarter and the first quarter, with stable demand, we were already seeing price momentum with caustic. There was an overcorrection last year in caustic. The market was tighter than what people believed, and you saw that begin to recover even before what we see happening currently in the Middle East.

Ken Lane

All of that, I still believe is constructive for the, you know, the pricing environment around caustic. We're still, you know, going to be bullish as we look forward because we think that nothing has fundamentally changed. You've taken capacity off, demand is relatively stable, costs are higher, prices should go up in that environment.

Operator

The next question will come from Matthew Blair with TPH. Please go ahead.

Matthew Blair

Thanks, and good morning, Ken and Todd. Ken, I think you mentioned that 6%-9% of global vinyls capacity is currently offline due to the Iran war. Is that also a good estimate for global ECU capacity that's offline? Perhaps more importantly, in terms of the duration, you know, how quickly could these assets return and how quickly could supply chain normalize if there was a true, you know, ceasefire, peace deal announced tomorrow?

Ken Lane

Good morning, Matthew. Well, maybe I'll start with your second question because I think a ceasefire's already been announced, and it still is disrupted. You know, I think this is going to linger for quite a while. If you look at these supply chain disruptions in the past, even it's not a light switch. You don't turn this back on and everything goes back to normal. Ships get out of position, feedstocks are not available for a period of time, and that lingers for weeks, months, typically.

Ken Lane

That's why I'm optimistic that, you know, structural support for higher prices and, you know, benefits for, you know, companies like Olin, who have assets in regions that have, you know, good access to low energy and raw materials, is gonna be constructive for us. I don't see that really reversing in the short term. I think it's gonna take a little bit longer. Going back to your first question, you know, the 6%-9% that's been reported for vinyls capacity that's offline, yeah, I mean, if you don't have a place to put the chlorine, then the ECUs are not gonna be produced. Yes, I do believe that that is a good proxy for thinking about that.

Operator

The next question will come from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

David Begleiter

Thank you. Good morning. Ken, on your vinyl strategy, has the conflict in the last two months influenced your thinking on how you pursue a vinyl strategy down the road? Just a housekeeping item, on slide 15, the turn on expenses, does the Q2 forecast of $42 million include the unplanned outage? If not, how much is that unplanned outage in vinyl? Thank you.

Ken Lane

Good morning, David. Appreciate you joining us. You know, the vinyl strategy is not impacted by what's going on in the world today. It's still an important market for us and one that we are focusing on longer term to make sure that we have access to that. You know, when we think about all of the options that we've discussed, you know, extending the current agreement that we've got with our Shintech customer at Freeport is still a priority for us. There are other good options that we are looking at. One thing that I would say is this does make some of the other options around partnerships look more attractive, especially to some of the partners that we're working with.

Ken Lane

You know, that is a good thing, but it doesn't change our focus on, you know, wanting to grow in the vinyl space longer term. The strategy is still intact. It's just we've got to continue to work through the options that are in front of us. The question that you had around the turnaround expenses for the second quarter, that does not include the unplanned events that we're talking about at Freeport. That would be an incremental impact in the second quarter that, again, we've reflected in the outlook that we gave.

Operator

The next question will come from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Arun Viswanathan

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Hope you guys are well. I guess what my main question is really on the duration of the earnings power here. You know, you're guiding to about $180 million for Q2. You know, various peers of yours in the space have given, you know, various lengths of time for normalization between, call it, 3 to 6 months. Is that kind of how you're looking at things? And I guess, you do have some capacity that's entering the industry in the next 6 to 12 months from debottlenecking as well as a new plant coming on maybe in a few years.

Arun Viswanathan

Just wondering if, you know, you're still feeling that caustic is going to be tight through that period or ultimately if we'll, you know, settle in a, in a, in a little bit of a oversupplied situation. If we do kind of put all that together, does that mean that, you know, maybe we're kind of looking at a year that's kind of twice your first half? Or, you know, do you see upside to that? Thanks.

Ken Lane

Good morning, Arun. Yeah. Listen, I'm not gonna get into the business of trying to speculate how long this is gonna go. I did say earlier, I do believe this is gonna carry through the year, this year, at least the impacts, because costs are gonna be higher. I think people are probably going to be expecting, you know, a higher security premium when you think about supply coming out of other regions that have been, frankly, dumping product into Europe's and the U.S.'s markets. I think, you know, we're seeing a premium for local supply. I think that's going to continue. You know, even if you see energy prices settle down, there are gonna be longer term kind of hangover effects here that I do think are gonna be beneficial for Olin.

Ken Lane

There's no doubt about that. You know, going back to what I said earlier, too, just around the setup for, you know, looking at coming out of the trough and supply-demand outlook for chlor-alkali, is much more positive than I think maybe you're thinking right now, because I'm not sure you got to factor in all the pluses and the minuses that have happened over the last, you know, year and a half, two years even, with assets that have been closed in Europe and the U.S. and Latin America. We've seen assets closed in Asia even. You know, you look at that, plus there is limited, there's really very little new capacity coming online between now and the end of the decade.

Ken Lane

Again, I feel very, you know, very bullish about the outlook for the markets that we're playing in and don't see any reason to have a different view on that.

Operator

The next question will come from John Roberts with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

John Roberts

Thank you. For your export, EDC business, how are you thinking about the competition from China? Most of their coal-based capacity is inland and their coastal capacity is probably ethylene constrained. How do you think the dynamics there are gonna play out in the next few months?

Ken Lane

Hi. Good morning, John. It's a very good question. Obviously, one that's important for us, with the EDC business that we've got. You know, we are gonna see a step up in volume in the second quarter, and prices have moved up significantly from where they were. If you just think back to last year, the price really got overdone and was dropping far more quickly than it needed to, in the environment that we were in. Okay, we are where we are. Things have improved since then and have gotten to a healthier level in terms of prices that we see. The fact that you just mentioned that a lot of that capacity is inland in China, again, will increase the cost to get that EDC to market. Our costs have gone down.

Ken Lane

They've not gone up. You know, we're able to serve the market more competitively at a better price. That is going to be constructive for us as we look forward to the second quarter and the third quarter. Again, I think that's going to continue through the end of the year. Pricing is going to get back to a more, what I would consider a more normal level for where we are in the supply-demand environment because things got overdone, and I mentioned this just a few minutes ago. The sanctioned oil that's sloshing around in the market, that now has been curtailed. The volume that's still there is going to be priced much higher than it was previously, and that is going to be beneficial to us.

Operator

The next question will come from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Vincent Andrews

Thank you. Yesterday or the other day when Chemours reported, they indicated that they'd signed a agreement with you for the 2028 plus period instead of building the plant that they announced back in December of 2024. Could you help us understand the impact to you? You know, are those tons gonna be more profitable, less profitable, about the same as what you're, How you're monetizing them today?

Ken Lane

Good morning, Vincent. Thank you for joining us. You know, anytime that we can do a strategic partnership like we've done here with Chemours, and it is similar to Braskem, where we're working with an industry leader like, you know, Braskem, industry leader in vinyls in Brazil. You've got the industry leader in Chemours for titanium dioxide, we've created something that is accretive for Olin. This is a long-term supply deal that will start in 2028. These are the sorts of, you know, optionality that we wanna put in place in our portfolio that gives us, you know, the ability through the cycle to generate stronger earnings. You know, certainly we're very happy with the relationship with Chemours and looking forward to expanding that in 2028.

Ken Lane

As you can imagine, we're not gonna disclose any further details around that agreement. You know, it certainly is a win-win for both Olin and Chemours.

Operator

As there are no further questions, this concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Lane for closing comments.

Ken Lane

Thank you very much. Listen, we appreciate everybody's time this morning. We appreciate your interest in Olin, and we look forward to giving you an update at our second quarter earnings call later this year. Thank you very much. Have a safe weekend.

Operator

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-07

Compass Minerals (CMP) Lags Q2 Earnings Estimates

Zacks

Compass Minerals (CMP) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.63 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.66 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.63 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -5.18%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this minerals producer would post earnings of $0.11 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.43, delivering a surprise of +290.91%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once. Compass, which belongs to the Zacks Chemical - Diversified industry, posted revenues of $453.2 million for the quarter ended March 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.03%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $494.6 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Compass shares have added about 34.7% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 6%. While Compass has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Compass was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) sto...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-01

Koppers (KOP) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: What to Know Ahead of Q1 Release

Zacks

Koppers (KOP) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 8. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise. This maker of chemicals, carbon compounds and wood treatment products is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.44 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -38%. Revenues are expected to be $410.45 million, down 10.1% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 4.81% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. Howeve...

Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-30

Olin (OLN) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?

Zacks

Olin (OLN) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 7. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise. This chlor-alkali and ammunition producer' is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.67 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -1775%. Revenues are expected to be $1.57 billion, down 4.8% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 88.61% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power i...

As of 2026-05-30 • Updated weeklySource: Earnings sourceIngestion runbook