B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
+143.2% vs current
OLMA
OlemaCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
+59.0% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
-6.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-04-15
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-
Unavailable
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+100.0
Score
AI commentary
Overall sentiment is cautious-monitoring rather than bullish. Primary sources support a credible runway and a clear 2026 catalyst calendar, but forward visibility is still mostly binary and concentrated in palazestrant. The March 2026 sympathy selloff tied to an external breast-cancer readthrough reinforces how exposed OLMA is to sector and mechanism sentiment, not just its own data.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-15
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-30eventOP-3136 initial clinical data in Q2 2026High impact
Olema said initial clinical results from the Phase 1 OP-3136 study are expected in Q2 2026 at a major medical conference; this is the nearest true pipeline datapoint and could either validate a second asset or reinforce the view that OLMA remains mostly a palazestrant story [#8-K-2026-03-16].
2026-10-15eventPivotal OPERA-01 top-line data expected in fall 2026High impact
Management and the 10-K point to fall 2026 top-line data from the pivotal Phase 3 OPERA-01 monotherapy trial in 2/3L ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer; this is the main value driver because the company also frames NDA submission in 2027 and potential approval/commercial launch in late 2027 if successful [#10-K-2026-03-16][#8-K-2026-03-16].
2028-06-30catalystRunway and execution window into late-stage milestonesHigh impact
Olema ended 2025 with $505.4 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities and says existing resources plus credit-facility availability should fund the current operating plan through mid-2028, which lowers near-term financing pressure while OPERA-01, OPERA-02, and OP-3136 advance [#10-K-2026-03-16][#8-K-2026-03-16].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-04-15 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology