B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OLMA
OlemaCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-04
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+76.0
Score
AI commentary
Cautious monitoring view. Primary company and SEC materials support a clear fall 2026 clinical catalyst and substantial reported cash, but the thesis remains binary, coverage is low, and verified analyst-revision or post-print market-reaction data are unavailable. Social sentiment is not available in the packet; the only recent headline is low-signal secondary coverage.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-04
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-31catalystDirector open-market sales add near-term overhangMedium impact
Director Cyrus Harmon reported two open-market sales totaling 25,000 shares on July 23-24 at $11.579-$11.714 per share. This is a sentiment and supply risk, not evidence of operating deterioration [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-27].
2026-11-02eventOPERA-01 Phase 3 top-line dataHigh impact
Olema's latest earnings update anticipated top-line data from the pivotal Phase 3 OPERA-01 monotherapy trial in fall 2026. The readout is the primary near-term value driver and remains binary [#SEC-8K-2026-05-12][#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-12].
2026-12-31catalystPipeline advancement and financing runwayHigh impact
The company reported $505.3 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at March 31, 2026, while continuing OPERA-02 enrollment and advancing OP-3136 and partnered combination studies. This supports execution through upcoming clinical milestones, though ongoing losses and R&D spending remain material [#SEC-8K-2026-05-12].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-04 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology