B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OLMA
OlemaDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
A favorable OPERA-01 efficacy and safety readout could support palazestrant's development and potential launch plans. Olema reported $461.1 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at June 30, 2026, providing resources for ongoing trials [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
What can break
Higher R&D spending and a $63.2 million second-quarter net loss create continuing cash-consumption and eventual financing risk despite the reported $461.1 million cash and securities balance [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
Momentum
5
Value
41
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $7.50 · Bull $17.00 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $36.50
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d -0.5
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +4.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Higher R&D spending and a $63.2 million second-quarter net loss create continuing cash-consumption and eventual financing risk despite the reported $461.1 million cash and securities balance [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
- • OP-3136 remains early-stage; study initiation and initial Phase 1 observations do not establish registrational efficacy [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
- • An unfavorable or delayed OPERA-01 readout would undermine the lead program.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-31
Oral-SERD competitor read-through
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-1.7
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
+8.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 5.1 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 52.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B-
Bear case
1%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$615.98M
Beta
1.91
Shares Out
87.5M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.8
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.11
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+18.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$501.24M
Current Ratio
8.86
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data