NWN

Northwest NaturalD

NYSE / Utilities

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$57.00

+17.3% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$52.50

+8.0% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$45.00

-7.4% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-08

AI commentary

Primary-source evidence is constructive, but the T+3 follow-up still looks monitoring-oriented rather than thesis-changing. Secondary coverage around the May 6, 2026 print mixed positive company framing with miss-versus-estimate language, and I did not confirm a meaningful post-print analyst revision cycle by May 8, 2026. Shares closed at $50.19 on May 7, 2026 and were $50.44 intraday on May 8, 2026, suggesting the initial earnings reaction largely settled instead of turning into a strong rerating. No social-context packet was provided, so sentiment confidence stays anchored to filings and limited news flow.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08

Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-06eventQ1 earnings beat prior year but guidance stayed unchangedMedium impact

NW Natural reported Q1 2026 EPS of $2.33 versus $2.18 a year earlier, while reaffirming 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95-$3.15 and long-term 2026-2030 targets; the earnings release also highlighted 2.8% utility connection growth and $114 million of Q1 system investment. This supports a stability case, but the lack of raised guidance limits rerating power after the print. [#8-K-2026-05-06]

2026-08-01catalystWashington rate-case settlement sets up August 1, 2026 rate reliefMedium impact

Management disclosed a multi-party settlement in NW Natural's Washington general rate case that would raise annual revenue requirement by $20.1 million in year one, then $7.7 million and $8.7 million in the following two years, subject to WUTC approval. Approval and implementation would support earnings visibility into 2026-2028. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]

2026-10-01catalystTexas rate filing and MX3 project keep medium-term growth optionality aliveMedium impact

SiEnergy filed a Texas general rate case on May 4, 2026 seeking a $12.0 million revenue increase with expected effectiveness in Q4 2026, while MX3 storage expansion remains on track with permits in hand, EPC work progressing, expected notice to proceed by late 2027, and in-service by end-2029. These are real growth levers, but both still need regulatory and execution follow-through. [#8-K-2026-05-06]

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology