B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
+9.6% vs current
NTB
Bank of N.T Butterfield Son (The)BNYSE / Banks
Last Price
At close
2026-06-03
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
+0.6% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
-12.0% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-04-21
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+15.2
Positive
Company
+23.6
Positive
Macro
+16.2
Positive
Pulse
-34.8
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+46.7
Score
AI commentary
This memo remains tentative and monitoring-oriented, not standard-conviction. Primary-source confirmation exists for the near-term Q1 earnings date, the pending Guernsey trust acquisition and the 2026 repurchase authorization, but forward evidence is still limited after the February year-end release. The deterministic prior is neutral with weak evidence quality and high uncertainty, and the stock is already near the available analyst median target, so the setup remains more consistent with wait-for-proof than a stronger directional thesis.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-21
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-04-28catalystQ1 2026 earnings report and callMedium impact
Butterfield said it will release first-quarter 2026 results after the NYSE close on April 28, 2026 and host its earnings call on April 29, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. With limited fresh primary evidence since the February year-end release, this is the nearest hard read-through on margin, deposit costs, fee income and capital return cadence. [#PR-2026-04-15]
2026-06-30eventRawlinson & Hunter Guernsey acquisition closing windowMedium impact
Butterfield announced an agreement to acquire Rawlinson & Hunter Guernsey, adding about 50 colleagues, 71 client groups and $9.0 billion of assets under administration; management said the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals. If completed on schedule, it would reinforce Butterfield's trust and fiduciary scale in the Channel Islands. [#PR-2026-02-19]
2026-12-31catalystCapital return execution under 2026 buyback authorizationMedium impact
In its fourth-quarter 2025 results, Butterfield highlighted a new authorization for up to 3.0 million common shares through December 31, 2026, alongside a $0.50 quarterly cash dividend and a 2025 combined payout ratio approaching 100% of net income. Continued repurchases can support per-share results, but much of the framework is already known and ongoing execution matters more than authorization alone. [#PR-2026-02-09]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-04-21 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology