B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NTB
Bank of N.T Butterfield Son (The)CNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive case is that Butterfield is entering the April 28, 2026 earnings print with solid trailing profitability, active capital return and a pending trust-business acquisition that could deepen fee income and Channel Islands scale if it closes on schedule. Primary releases support that management is still leaning into private trust growth and shareholder returns rather than balance-sheet defense.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
What can break
Capital return is supportive but already visible; any moderation in repurchases or dividend cadence could reduce per-share support. [#PR-2026-02-09]
Momentum
48
Value
62
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $56.00 · Bull $61.00 · Bear $49.00Analysis 2026-04-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $64.00
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d -1.6
Value62 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital return is supportive but already visible; any moderation in repurchases or dividend cadence could reduce per-share support. [#PR-2026-02-09]
- • Peer comparison is imperfect because NTB's offshore banking and private trust mix does not line up cleanly with U.S. regional-bank comps.
- • The cautious case is that evidence quality remains thin between quarter-end events, the deterministic prior is neutral-to-slightly-negative, and the next major proof point is still an earnings event not yet reported.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-28
Q1 2026 earnings report and call
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.6
Δ21d
-10.1
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
+2.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 48.3 / Value 61.5 / Sentiment 57.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.48B
Beta
0.55
Shares Out
39.33M
P/E (TTM)
9.5
P/S (TTM)
3.65
P/FCF (TTM)
14.86
Rev YoY
+1.5%
EPS YoY
-7.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+30.1%
Net Debt
-$1.57B
Current Ratio
0.41
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data