B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$385.00
+0.7% vs current
MTSI
MACOM SolutionsBNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$305.00
-20.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$240.00
-37.2% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+16.7
Positive
Company
+17.2
Positive
Macro
+20.7
Positive
Pulse
-62.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+30.3
Score
AI commentary
Tone improved after the May 7, 2026 earnings release. Primary-source evidence supports a constructive post-print read, while secondary coverage linked the move to stronger guidance and data-center demand. Initial analyst revision evidence exists but is still thin in the packet, so this should be treated as a higher-quality monitoring upgrade rather than a fully de-risked thesis. The market reaction appears strongly positive, but with the stock already above the packet's median analyst target, sentiment is constructive yet vulnerable to any guidance wobble.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-03eventQ2 print and Q3 outlook reset higher [#8-K-2026-05-07]High impact
MACOM reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $289.0 million, adjusted EPS of $1.09, and guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $331-$339 million with adjusted EPS of $1.31-$1.37, signaling a materially stronger second-half setup than a generic monitoring view. Primary company release confirmed via the May 7, 2026 8-K exhibit. [#8-K-2026-05-07]
2026-10-01catalystData center mix remains the clearest structural growth leg [#10-Q-2026-05-07]High impact
In the April 3, 2026 10-Q, Data Center revenue rose 36.0% year over year to $98.2 million, driven by higher sales of high-performance analog, coherent and optical products supporting 100G through 1.6T data rates; this is the cleanest primary-source-backed long-duration demand vector in the file. [#10-Q-2026-05-07]
2026-10-01catalystDefense and communications breadth supports a broader second-half revenue base [#10-Q-2026-05-07]Medium impact
Industrial & Defense revenue increased 22.4% year over year to $120.7 million, primarily from defense programs, while Telecom grew 7.6% on PON, metro long-haul, broadband access and SATCOM applications, reducing reliance on a single end market. [#10-Q-2026-05-07]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology