B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MTSI
MACOM SolutionsCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Fiscal Q3 revenue rose 35.8% year over year to $342.2 million while GAAP gross margin reached 58.3%; achieving the substantially higher Q4 outlook would support continued operating leverage. The 3.2T portfolio offers a distinct longer-term opportunity, but adoption is not yet evidenced.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -23.1.
What can break
Missing the fiscal Q4 revenue, adjusted-margin, or EPS ranges could challenge the growth thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
63
Value
49
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $235.00 · Bull $285.00 · Bear $175.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $390.33
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d -22.7
Value49 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -23.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -23.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Missing the fiscal Q4 revenue, adjusted-margin, or EPS ranges could challenge the growth thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • No disclosed customer design win or quantified revenue contribution yet validates the 3.2T chipset opportunity. [#PR-2026-09-17]
- • The $420 million Q4 revenue midpoint is roughly 23% above Q3, leaving material execution risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05
November 5 fiscal Q4 results against specific guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-22.7
Δ21d
-1.0
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-23.1
Δ21d
-5.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 63.0 / Value 48.8 / Sentiment 55.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$18.04B
Beta
1.44
Shares Out
76.37M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
68.1
P/S (TTM)
13.23
P/FCF (TTM)
83.52
Rev YoY
+35.8%
EPS YoY
+166.7%
Gross Margin
+55.0%
Op Margin
+18.1%
Net Debt
-$217.26M
Current Ratio
2.34
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data