MTG

MGIC InvestmentC

NYSE / Financial Services

At close

2026-06-11

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$31.00

+21.7% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$27.50

+8.0% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$24.50

-3.8% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-04-29

AI commentary

This remains a cautious monitoring memo, not a post-print conviction call. On April 29, 2026 at 19:05 UTC, MTG traded about $29.15, up roughly 0.6% versus the prior close, but that move cannot yet be tied to earnings because the company had only pre-announced an after-close April 29 release and April 30 call, and analyst revision data was still unavailable in sources checked. The peer set has been tightened toward direct private mortgage insurers, but with no recent trusted-news packet and no usable social coverage, confidence stays muted and the negative deterministic prior is not rebutted yet.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-29

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-04-29eventQ1 2026 earnings release and April 30 call are the immediate swing factorMedium impact

MGIC said it plans to release first-quarter 2026 financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, with a webcast/call on April 30, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET [#PR-2026-04-02]. As of April 29, 2026, a matching earnings 8-K/results filing was not yet visible in the SEC company submissions feed checked for this run, so surprise, guidance, and analyst-revision data remain unavailable.

2026-05-21catalystCapital return remains material but is already a known supportMedium impact

The board approved an additional $750 million share repurchase program on April 23, 2026 running through December 31, 2028, and declared a $0.15 quarterly dividend payable May 21, 2026 [#PR-2026-04-23]. That builds on heavy prior buybacks disclosed in the 2025 Form 10-K, including about 30.1 million shares repurchased for $782.0 million in 2025 and another 4.5 million shares for $120.5 million through February 20, 2026 [#10-K-2026-02-25].

2026-06-30catalystReinsurance and capital flexibility help cushion credit-cycle noiseMedium impact

MGIC's February 2, 2026 quarterly release said it ended 2025 with more than $303 billion of insurance in force and highlighted a $324 million insurance-linked-note excess-of-loss agreement executed in January 2026, while the 2025 Form 10-K says quota-share and excess-of-loss reinsurance are used to manage PMIERs and capital needs [#PR-2026-02-02] [#10-K-2026-02-25]. This supports resilience, but without the Q1 2026 print it is not yet a fresh thesis change.

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-04-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology