B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MTG
MGIC InvestmentCNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-03
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+23.4
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+23.4
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-30.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+58.8
Score
AI commentary
The SEC 8-K confirms the earnings release and capital actions. News tone is moderately positive because of Q2 profit, capital returns, and reinsurance, but the print is mixed on credit normalization and reserve-release dependence. Secondary pre-print analyst aggregates remain broadly Hold-oriented; no reliable post-release price move or dated analyst revision was confirmed, so market reaction remains unverified.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-03
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-29eventMixed Q2 earnings digestionMedium impact
Q2 net income was $182.1 million, or $0.86 per diluted share, with 14.5% ROE, NIW up 8.5% year over year, and insurance in force up 2.6%. Delinquencies rose year over year and results included favorable reserve development. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-31]
2026-08-20catalystBuyback and dividend supportMedium impact
The company repurchased $176.6 million of stock in Q2, authorized an additional $750 million repurchase program through 2028, and declared a $0.17 dividend payable August 20, 2026. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
2027-08-03catalystCapital resilience if credit normalization remains orderlyHigh impact
PMIERs excess was $2.7 billion, holding-company liquidity was $930 million, and reinsurance provides up to $168 million of coverage on eligible 2027 NIW. Stored earnings context describes credit deterioration as broad-based normalization rather than concentrated stress, but this remains conditional. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-31]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology