B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
+11.7% vs current
MTG
MGIC InvestmentANYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-30
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$28.67
-5.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$23.50
-22.8% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-30
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+20.2
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+20.2
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+38.8
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source coverage is strong through the SEC 8-K, but forward visibility is limited because consensus, analyst revisions, options data, short interest, employee sentiment, and an earnings-call transcript are unavailable. The live quote snapshot was modestly below the $30.58 July 29 anchor, suggesting a mildly negative immediate reaction without enough evidence to attribute it solely to the earnings print. Social coverage was absent, so sentiment confidence remains moderate.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-30
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-30eventQ2 2026 results were operationally solid but mixed year over yearMedium impact
SEC-reported Q2 net income was $182.1 million and diluted EPS was $0.86; ROE was 14.5%, NIW rose to $17.8 billion, but delinquency rate increased to 2.37% from 2.21% and the loss ratio rose from an unusually favorable prior-year level. The earnings release is primary-source evidence [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
2026-09-30catalystCredit and portfolio-quality deterioration could pressure valuationHigh impact
Primary delinquency inventory and the count-based delinquency rate were higher year over year, while persistency, net premiums earned, and net premium yield were lower. A worsening housing-credit cycle could increase losses and reduce capital-return flexibility [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
2026-12-31catalystCapital return remains a medium-term supportMedium impact
MTG repurchased 6.6 million shares in Q2, authorized an additional $750 million buyback through December 2028, increased its quarterly dividend 13% to $0.17, and reported $930 million of holding-company liquidity [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-23].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology