B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$360.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MPC
Marathon PetroleumCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$323.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-07
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+40.1
Positive
Company
+2.0
Mixed
Macro
+40.3
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+22.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+36.8
Score
AI commentary
News tone is strongly positive after the earnings release, but immediate follow-through is weaker: the $299.25 Aug. 6 anchor compares with a live Aug. 7 quote near $292.90. The stored analyst revision signal is pre-print, not post-print, and social, options, short-interest, and employee-sentiment data are unavailable; therefore the view remains monitoring-oriented despite the positive earnings evidence.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-07
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
Forward visibility is limited, so this memo should be read as a lower-conviction monitoring view rather than a catalyst-driven call.; no forward-looking company-specific catalyst is supported by primary-source evidence; high-coverage catalyst set is still too generic or cadence-driven; high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-04eventStrong Q2 2026 earnings resetMedium impact
MPC reported $5.1 billion of net income, $17.73 diluted EPS, and $8.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA versus $1.2 billion, $3.96, and $3.3 billion respectively in Q2 2025. Refining & Marketing EBITDA was $6.7 billion, driven primarily by higher crack spreads. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
2026-08-04catalystAug. 4 Q3 operating outlookMedium impact
MPC's Aug. 4 investor presentation indicated approximately 3.005 million barrels per day of Q3 total throughput and 94% utilization, but also $290 million of planned turnaround costs, creating a near-term execution and earnings-sensitivity checkpoint.
2026-08-04catalystRefining-margin normalization riskMedium impact
Q2 Refining & Marketing margin reached $36.33 per barrel versus $17.58 a year earlier, with results driven primarily by higher crack spreads. Mean reversion in refining margins is the principal downside risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-07 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology