B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
+20.8% vs current
LCNB
LCNBBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
+8.7% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.75
-10.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-06-02
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+16.9
Positive
Company
+23.6
Positive
Macro
+17.9
Positive
Pulse
-34.8
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+54.7
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source evidence is solid, but forward visibility is still limited and coverage is thin. The April 22 print was mixed-to-cautious: record NII/NIM and wealth assets were offset by higher provisions, weaker fee income, and a small EPS decline, while secondary market trackers suggested a modest post-release drop. No fresh analyst revision set or social-sentiment signal is available in the packet, so conviction stays moderate rather than aggressive.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-06-02
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-10eventQ1 print showed stronger core margin, but credit costs pressured EPSMedium impact
LCNB's April 22 first-quarter update showed record tax-equivalent net interest income of $18.8 million and a 3.83% NIM, but net income slipped to $4.4 million / $0.31 per share as provision expense jumped to $2.3 million. Management said the increase was driven by two logistics-sector loans and a higher ACL in a more uncertain macro backdrop [#SEC-8K-2026-04-22] [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-06].
2026-06-30catalystFunding and balance-sheet shrinkage remain the near-term overhangMedium impact
The 10-Q shows total interest-bearing deposits fell mainly because of runoff in higher-cost CDs, IRA balances, and ICS deposits, while average loan balances also declined. That keeps funding-cost discipline constructive, but it also leaves scale and loan-growth risk in focus if core deposit trends soften again [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-06].
2026-09-01catalystWealth management and dividend stability can offset core-bank pressureMedium impact
LCNB Wealth Management assets reached a record $1.57 billion and the board kept the quarterly cash dividend at $0.22 per share, which supports capital-return stability and helps offset slower loan growth if fee generation continues to compound [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-18] [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-06].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-06-02 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology