B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$106.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KNF
Knife RiverANYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The cleanest post-earnings bull read is operational: double-digit volume gains, 290 bps adjusted EBITDA margin improvement, record backlog and an unchanged full-year outlook suggest Q1 improved confidence ahead of the core construction season. The packet's median target of $102.18 implies moderate upside from the $88.73 anchor, but the target set lacks a confirmed analyst count.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Acquisition execution risk remains elevated after three Q1 deals plus ongoing organic projects, with additional integration and capital demands into 2026-2027 [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Momentum
7
Value
55
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $98.00 · Bull $106.00 · Bear $76.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $87.29
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d +1.6
Value55 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition execution risk remains elevated after three Q1 deals plus ongoing organic projects, with additional integration and capital demands into 2026-2027 [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
- • Balance-sheet usage increased: as of 2026-03-31 the company had $1.4 billion of gross debt, $178.2 million of revolver availability and net leverage of 2.9x [#8-K-2026-05-05].
- • The main post-print caution is that GAAP profitability still worsened, with net loss widening to $79.2 million.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-05
Q1 print showed volume-led improvement and preserved 2026 guide
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
+1.5
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+5.8
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 6.8 / Value 54.9 / Sentiment 84.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$76.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.78B
Beta
-
Shares Out
56.76M
P/E (TTM)
28.4
P/S (TTM)
1.37
P/FCF (TTM)
27.95
Rev YoY
+12.6%
EPS YoY
-13.2%
Gross Margin
+17.8%
Op Margin
+9.0%
Net Debt
$1.09B
Current Ratio
2.66
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data